Dismantling the Wall: the simplification of complex socio-technological systems and the implications for urban resilience A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Anthony Richardson BA, Dip.Ed, MA School of Global Urban and Social Studies College of Design and Social Context RMIT University March 2016 Anthony Richardson THESIS: Dismantling the Wall Declaration I certify that except where due acknowledgement has been made, the work is that of the author alone; the work has not been submitted previously, in whole or in part, to qualify for any other academic award; the content of the thesis is the result of work which has been carried out since the official commencement date of the approved research program; any editorial work, paid or unpaid, carried out by a third party is acknowledged; and, ethics procedures and guidelines have been followed. Anthony Richardson 13th March 2016 ii Anthony Richardson THESIS: Dismantling the Wall Acknowledgements It has taken the last five years to bring this PhD thesis to fruition, although I have been mulling over the ideas and concepts upon which it is based for over a decade. Getting these ideas down into a coherent argument has been a challenging process, not the least because it has been interrupted by the arrival of children and (less positively) by health concerns including cancer, a retinal detachment, and a serious bicycle accident. Completing this PhD thesis would not have been possible without the patient assistance of friends, colleagues and family. Above all, my three supervisors over this journey (Nicole Pepperell, Dave Mercer and John Whyte) have been wonderful. My first supervisor Nicole Pepperell deserves particular thanks: her professionalism, insightful criticism, and tireless intellectual and personal support have been absolutely invaluable. Thanks must also go to Dave Mercer who has been an endless source of fascinating and useful feedback and ideas, including a veritable email blizzard of academic resources. John Whyte provided a source of both intellectual and personal encouragement and support at the lowest point in the process, for which I am hugely grateful. A final acknowledgement must be given to both Jean Hillier for her intellectual interest and support, and to Jenni Morris for somehow unsnarling the endless administrative difficulties to which I seem to be prone. My family, and in particular my partner Donna, have been a wonderful support. Reaching the end would not have happened without her love and support – and above all her seemingly endless supply of patience as the years rolled on. Finally I want to thank my children Tycho and Atticus, who have awaited the end of this strange and stressful journey with stoic, if uncomprehending, forbearance. Neither of them can remember a time when I did not have an incomplete thesis hanging over my head. To all three I have the deepest gratitude. iii Anthony Richardson THESIS: Dismantling the Wall CONTENTS Title page i Declaration ii Acknowledgements iii Contents iv Abstract 1 INTRODUCTION 2 PART A: ENERGY AND COMPLEXITY 9 Chapter 1: Introduction to energy and dissipation 10 Explanation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics ‘Far From Equilibrium’ stable systems (Prigogine) Chapter 2: Energy dissipation and socio-technological systems 15 Criticisms of applying thermodynamics within the social sciences Observer viewpoint and boundary delineation (Luhmann) Chapter 3: The challenges of socio-technological complexity 36 Defining complexity (‘hegemonic complexity’) The Law of Diminishing Returns (Tainter) and Panarchy (Holling) The further vulnerabilities of complexity PART B: AVERTING COLLAPSE THROUGH URBAN SIMPLIFICATION 76 Chapter 4: Urban resilience 78 Cities and the problematic concept of ‘resilience’ (Davoudi) The concept of the Wall The role of purpose and conscious action in urban resilience Chapter 5: Military theory and urban collapse 108 Military technophilia and tactical/strategic distance (Graham) Radical (hard) uncertainty and Fourth Generation War An alternative model of resilience: the Hedgehog Defence Chapter 6: Recommendations for the promotion of urban resilience 142 Six recommendations for promoting resilience through simplification PART C: THE CHALLENGES FACING URBAN SIMPLIFICATION 148 Chapter 7: The attractions of increasing complexity 149 Social constructionism and orthodoxy/heterodoxy (Bourdieu) Five interconnected reasons for the path dependency of complexity Chapter 8: Subverting the paradigm of complexity 161 The value of crisis as a challenge to orthodoxy Three subversive narrative approaches Chapter 9: Conclusion 175 Bibliography 178 Statement regarding previously published work (Appendices 1 and 2) 221 iv Anthony Richardson THESIS: Dismantling the Wall Abstract The study of urban and societal collapse has long been an area of scientific, historical and cultural interest. In recent years this interest in collapse, and its corollary resilience, has increased in line with growing scientific, political, cultural and general concerns over energy, food and water resources, social unrest, and the impacts of disasters and climate change on urban environments. This cross- disciplinary thesis should be seen as fitting clearly into this theoretical tradition of futurist ‘collapse studies’ and thus incorporates elements of the physical sciences and the history of science, complexity science and military theory into a more clearly social science concern with the promotion of urban resilience. The purpose of this thesis is to propose the conscious simplification of elements of our contemporary complex cities to improve their resilience to both sudden disruptions and slower trends such as climate change and resource depletion. It takes a broadly thermodynamic approach, being based heavily upon Tainter’s work (1990) on the energy costs of social and technological complexity and the resultant tendency of such complex systems to collapse. It then contributes an original synthesis of Tainter’s dynamic of collapse with the Panarchy model of adaptive change (Gunderson & Holling, 2002). Finally, it considers the fragility implied by such complexity in and of itself (such as the danger of cascading failures). Importantly, this thesis acknowledges that any program of conscious simplification implies a philosophical, cultural and thus political (rather than technological) challenge. This is because it proposes a rejection of the Wall; the utopian/positivist technophilia which sees ever more complex socio-technological systems as the (eventual if not currently actual) solution for the challenges facing modern cities. Instead, this thesis suggests a more ‘humble’ approach to complex systems like contemporary cities, in which notions of ‘complete’ or absolute predictability or resilience are rejected. To this end, it briefly examines some of the philosophical debates in military theory around technological complexity and decision-making in environments of radical uncertainty. In the light of these discussions, this thesis makes six ‘humble’ recommendations for the simplification of particular urban systems. After outlining its approach of conscious urban simplification, this thesis acknowledges the challenges such a program implies. Contemporary complex cities display a wide range of path dependencies (political, cultural, economic, organisational and environmental) which constrain them within orthodox narratives of development. However, this thesis takes a strongly social constructivist approach (Bourdieu, 1995) to urban path dependency, arguing that the promotion of heterodox narratives of urban development can overcome such inertia. Three such narratives are proposed: alternative modes of urban living, the narratives of dystopian science fiction, and a focus on individual self-interest. Gunderson, L. & Holling, C. (eds) (2002) Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems, Island Press, Washington Tainter, J. (1990) The collapse of complex societies, CUP, Cambridge 1 Anthony Richardson THESIS: Dismantling the Wall Dismantling the Wall: the simplification of complex socio-technological systems and the implications for urban resilience ‘When the direction of the wind changes, some build walls, some make windmills’ Chinese proverb The study of urban and societal collapse has long been an area of scientific, historical and cultural interest. In the last couple of years this interest in collapse and its corollary resilience has increased in line with growing scientific, political, cultural and general concerns over energy, food and water resources, social unrest, and the impacts of disasters and climate change on urban environments. Recent examples include predictions of the collapse of industrial civilisation (Slaughter, 2010; Vairley, 2013; Alexander, 2013; 2015; Ehrlich & Ehrlich, 2013), studies from Australia (Blackburn, 2013; 2014) and the UK (Beddington, 2009) into the dangers inherent in the complexity of interconnected urban systems and the establishment of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk to study low probability/high impact dangers.1 This cross-disciplinary thesis fits clearly within the realm of futurology and collapse studies, as it is concerned with the tendency of human social arrangements, and cities in particular, to collapse. Purpose and central argument Like the great majority of collapse studies, the purpose of this thesis is to examine the dynamic of (urban) collapse in order to prepare our cities and urban systems for