A COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODEL FOR UNDERSTANDING THE CAUSES OF CORRUPTION: CASE STUDY - TURKEY Muhammet Murat Yasar, BA, MS. Dissertation Prepared for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS August 2005 APPROVED: Bradley Stewart Chilton, Major Professor Brian O’Connor, Major Professor and Coordinator of the Interdisciplinary Program in Information Sciences Emile Sahliyeh, Minor Professor Samantha Hastings, Dean of the School of Library and Information Sciences Sandra L. Terrell, Dean of the Robert B. Toulouse School of Graduate Studies Yasar, Muhammet Murat, A complex systems model for understanding the causes of corruption: Case study - Turkey, Doctor of Philosophy (Information Sciences), August 2005, 190 pp., 22 tables, 3 illustrations, bibliography, 235 titles. It is attempted with this dissertation to draw an explanatory interdisciplinary framework to clarify the causes of systemic corruption. Following an intense review of political sciences, economics, and sociology literatures on the issue, a complex systems theoretical model is constructed. A political system consists of five main components: society, interest aggregators, legislative, executive and private sector, and the human actors in these domains. It is hypothesized that when the legitimacy level of the system is low and morality of the systemic actors is flawed, selected political, social and economic incentives and opportunities that may exist within the structure of the systemic components might -individually or as a group- trigger corrupt transactions between the actors of the system. If left untouched, corruption might spread through the system by repetition and social learning eventually becoming the source of corruption itself. By eroding the already weak legitimacy and morality, it may increase the risk of corruption even further. This theoretical explanation is used to study causes of systemic corruption in the Turkish political system. Under the guidance of the complex systems theory, initial systemic conditions (legacy of the predecessor of Turkey Ottoman Empire) is evaluated first, and then political, social and economic factors that are presumed to be breeding corruption in contemporary Turkey is investigated. In this section, special focus is given on the formation and operation of amoral social networks and their contribution to the entrenchment of corruption within the system. Based upon the findings of the case study, the theoretical model that is informed by the literature is reformed: Thirty five system and actor level variables are identified to be related with systemic corruption and nature of the causality between them and corruption is explained. Although results of this study can not be academically generalized for obvious reasons; the analytical framework proposed here can be referenced by policy makers who are willing to trace the roots of systemic corruption in developing countries. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I owe enormous amount of gratitude to my fantastic committee; I take special pride in building such a great team! To start with Dr. Chilton, this dissertation would not even exist if I could not have enjoyed his academic and spiritual support from the first scratch until the very end. He has been my mentor for the last four years and will forever remain so. I can not thank Dr. O’Connor enough for his help in getting me into the interdisciplinary program at a problematic phase in my academic life, for his encouragement at very dark times when I lost hope, and for his wonderful insights in my dissertation. His fair and compassionate treatment of all of us, all the interdisciplinary students, have made the nerve-racking doctoral experience as joyful as it gets. Dr. Emile Sahliyeh not only helped me a lot in translating abstract concepts of Turkish political economy to concrete facts with his enormous knowledge in Middle Eastern politics; but he also has proven to me that it is possible to be such a wonderful friend while being such a great professor. Knowing him has been one of the greatest prizes of graduate school. My special thanks go to my dear wife, Ahsen, for her love and encouragement. I would not be able to go through this stressful period if she was not there for me. Of course, I have to express my gratitude to Turkish National Police and Turkish people who have financially supported my graduate studies: I promise to work diligently to pay my debt back. I hope this dissertation will be a step in Turkish quest to fight corruption which has devastating consequences; including the loss of forty thousand lives to a single earthquake in 1999. Living memory of these victims including my beloved father, mother and sister has been the main inspiration in undertaking this study. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...............................................................................................ii LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................................................v LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS...........................................................................................vii Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................1 Introduction Recent Popularity of an Ancient Problem International Business Hurts and the Issue Globalizes Why Do We Have To Study Corruption? Consequences of Corruption and the Research Question Problems in Corruption Research Summary 2. LITERATURE REVIEW, THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK, METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS..............................................20 Introduction Literature Review into the Causes of Corruption Constructing an Interdisciplinary Framework to Study Causes of Corruption Complex Systems Theory and Its Application to the Case Study Methodology Limitations Summary 3. MEASURING CORRUPTION IN TURKEY.........................................42 Introduction Place of Turkey on Corruption Perception Indexes by Years Findings of Global Corruption Barometer Surveys Findings of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey Place of Turkey on Global Good Governance Index by Years iii Findings of Household and Business Views on Corruption Survey Findings of Research for Public Sector Reform Survey Recent Media Coverage of Corruption Summary 4. INITIAL SYSTEMIC CONDITIONS: LEGACY OF THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE...................................................................................................61 Introduction Political Conditions Social Conditions Economic Conditions Dissolution of the Empire: First Signs of Systemic Corruption Summary 5. CORRUPTION BREEDING FACTORS IN POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF MODERN TURKEY ..............74 Introduction Problems in Political Structure Problems in Economic Structure Problems in Social Structure Revisiting Legitimacy Summary 6. AN EXPLORATORY MODEL OF SYSTEMIC CORRUPTION IN TURKEY .................................................................................................144 Introduction Refining the Variables and Reconstruction of the Model Conclusive Remarks Summary REFERENCE LIST .........................................................................................................169 iv LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Score and Ranking of Turkey on Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index (1980-2004) .................................................................................................43 2. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2003) .................................46 3. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2003) .................................47 4. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2003) .................................48 5. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2003) .................................49 6. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2003) .................................49 7. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2003) .................................50 8. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2004) .................................51 9. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2004) .................................51 10. Findings of the Global Corruption Barometer Survey (2004) .................................52 11. Control of Corruption: Turkey versus Other Countries (1996-2004).......................54 12. Rule of Law: Turkey versus Other Countries (1996-2004) .....................................96 13. Scope of Turkish Underground Economy (1998-2004) ..........................................109 14. Population Growth in Turkey (1927-2000).............................................................117 15. Change in Turkish Population Patterns: Urban versus Rural (1990-2000) ..............118 16. Unemployment in Turkey (1990-2003)..................................................................120 17. Adult Literacy Rate in Turkey (1990-2003) ...........................................................121 18. Income Inequality in Turkey (1990-2003)..............................................................123 19. Membership to Civil Associations: Turkey versus Western Countries....................128 v 20. Protest Potential: Turkey versus Western Countries ...............................................136 21. System-level Variables and Their Presumed Relationship with the level of Corruption in a Political System ..............................................................................................152 22. Actor-Level Variables