V24, N11 Thursday, Oct. 25, 2018 Freakish events buffet mid-term races Lack of polling trendlines, 2016 upsets haunt prognosticators By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – On April 3, 1974, one of the most freak- ish weather events in recorded memory raked Indiana and the central U.S. It was called the “Su- per Outbreak,” and in one day at least 18 tornadoes gashed Indi- ana, from Monticello to Rochester to Madison. Sitting next to it was an empty can of corn, its top at- The next day, I joined a Peru Daily tached but peeled back. Both sat on the top serenely, un- Tribune photographer and headed moved, as a deathly maelstrom blasted the surroundings. up to Rochester and Talma to Indiana’s political reality feels quite as hectic as shoot and report the carnage. On the “Super Outbreak” in the final weeks before the 2018 Old U.S. 31, the Ghrist Motel was mid-terms. The data sets are freakish and wanton. The in shambles. There was one room where the roof was torn off, a pickup truck was wedged in Continued on page 3 the walls, and on the dresser sat a plug-in soup warmer. Mike & Joe nonsense By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – Will this nonsense never end? Joe Donnelly’s brother moved a plant to Mexico, like many other such plants. Joe earned some income and then sold his stock. It was a small percentage of his income. Oh “Those engaged in the political yeah, and the axe he uses in an ad appears to have been made arena must stop treating politi- in Mexico. Mike Braun’s company cal opponents as being morally sold auto parts made in China defective. By the way, do you see and Mexico. Like every other auto parts store. And some of how nice I’m behaving today? the boxes were even labeled in Have you ever seen this?” Chinese and English! These incessant ads that - President Trump, reacting badger us if we try to watch television or listen to the radio, to bombs being sent to two since they cancel each other former presidents, CNN Page 2 out, now turn on “He lied, but he lied 4.) Donnelly’s ads, on the worse. No, he lied worse. No, you other hand, are crystal clear: Demo- lied more.” They act like six-year-olds crat, what’s a Democrat? Joe is run- facing off in front of their parents. ning as a sort of “Trump Lite.” A little Beyond these inane ads, there are a bit of wall, some changes in health few other things going on in the cam- care, some of the tax cuts (maybe). paign. He was against Kavanaugh, but only 1.) Braun’s campaign is chooses to stress that he was for Howey Politics Indiana among the worst Senate campaigns in Gorsuch, which is basically irrelevant. my lifetime. I’m not saying that he is It was a free vote. Braun was for Ka- WWHowey Media, LLC 405 wrong on issues, not qualified to serve vanaugh, but that of course is appar- Massachusetts Ave., Suite as senator, a poor businessman, or ently not as important as where Joe’s 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 anything else. Just that he has run an axe was made. Both fear that actually www.howeypolitics.com awful campaign. No grassroots, little talking about the Supreme Court is money beyond his own, and after his more politically risky than verbally terrific primary ads, in the fall cam- assaulting each other over labels on Brian A. Howey, Publisher paign they’ve been terrible, or boring. boxes that include more than English. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington 2.) Braun’s version of 5.) Donnelly, like he did Cameron Carter, Editor campaigning is the antithesis of a against Mourdock (my way or the Joel Weyrauch, Editor Holcomb-Daniels style effort. Mary Lou Howey, Editor The general rule is this: Vot- ers are more Republican the Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo farther away you get from the Jacob Curry, Statehouse courthouse. This tends to be Jack E. Howey, Editor true even in heavily Republican Emeritus suburban areas. Therefore, Mitch went everywhere in his RV. Eric found every basketball Subscriptions court and interesting food spot HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 in the state. It was not only to HPI Weekly, $350 meet people, but also was im- HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly portant for symbolism: We care about everybody, not just the Ray Volpe, Account Manager big cities. We are real people, not just highway criticism which was then 317.602.3620 television props. In off-year elections, reenforced by Mourdock’s debate email: [email protected] turnout in those areas matters more gaffe on abortion), has a thematic than in the presidential years. You can framework that has filled-in parts of win by ignoring the smaller counties, his “What’s a Democrat?” theme. He Contact HPI but you can also lose. When you’re has walked across bridges, chopped [email protected] running against an incumbent, gener- wood and tried every other analogy to Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 ally speaking you try harder. suggest that in Washington there are Washington: 202.256.5822 3.) Braun’s ad called “Won’t three parties: Republicans, Democrats, Wait” is likely the worst Senate ad and Hoosiers (as in “I stand with the Business Office: 317.602.3620 since Richard Roudebush, whose clos- people of Indiana”). His committee ing ad in his razor-thin loss to Vance assignments, amendments and what © 2018, Howey Politics Hartke in 1970 had pieces of the Re- votes he casts will be determined by Indiana. All rights reserved. publican elephant design coming to- whether he organizes with the liberal Photocopying, Internet forward- gether. I have seen his Google search, Democrat leadership, not Hoosiers. or whatever, ad many times and never 6.) If grassroots matter at ing, faxing or reproducing in once figured out a single point in the all, Donnelly wins. He’s likable. Not any form, whole or part, is a ad until I looked at it on-line. Even fake likable; Joe is actually likable. He violation of federal law without then, I don’t understand what they chose to be a Democrat and I chose permission from the publisher. are trying to do. Instead of the humor to be a Republican, but we were good and clarity of his primary ads, Braun’s friends, genuine friends. That said, fall ads are generally muddled, all over while it is preferable that we have the place and worse than uninspiring: likable people representing us, the they are boring. political votes one casts – especially Page 3 organizational ones – are more important than being opportunity to vote for Gorsuch, or part of a wall, or some friendly when running for senator in a closely divided Obamacare reform, or some tax cuts, if the Democrats Senate. You’re not electing a Rotary Club president. Many control the Senate. That is the issue. people don’t feel Braun is likable. I don’t know him so I 8.) Anyone or any poll who projects this race at don’t know. In his avoidance of grassroots campaigning, this point is guessing – pure and simple guessing. Turn- Braun appears to be like many successful businessmen, out is critical. Turnout isn’t a national question, or even a who know how to run a business but they don’t especially statewide stat. What matters is who turns out where in like regular people. If this election is determined by who critical sub-sections of districts. It cannot be tracked with seems most likable, Donnelly wins in a walk. 370 people or 3,700 people polled. One poll claimed 90% 7.) If the race is between Donnelly and Braun, of the voters intended to vote in this off-year election. Donnelly wins. If it is nationalized, Donnelly loses. That Yeah, right. It may be high, but likely will be closer to the has been apparent since at least 2016, maybe since norm than it will be to 90%. And where turnout is high 2012. In other words, there is one issue that will moti- is what will matter – how many from which sub-clusters vate Republicans. We all know it. It is not 7,500 people (e.g. will Republican conservative women vote more marching toward the border like an invasion force, though than Democrat-leaning women?) and from which specific that is part of it. It is not Judge Kavanaugh, or other geographical areas (which tend to be reflective of those court appointments, though that is part of it. It is not the sub-clusters). Right now, the only thing in Indiana we can turnaround of the American economy, though that is part predict with confidence is this: Joe Donnelly will either be of it. It is not rebuilding our national defense as the world reelected or defeated by a margin somewhere between becomes increasingly dangerous, though that, too, is part significant or a cliff-hanger. But unless Braun and the of it. The issue is this: Who is going to control the Senate? Republicans get focused in these last two weeks, Donnelly A single issue. Yet, somehow, even as people have begun will not only over-perform, he may actually win in a state voting, we are still mired in ads about who loves or hates that, on the surface, right now should be an easy GOP vic- Mexico the most. The Republicans, in particular, need to tory. v re-focus this right now or even the rightward tilt of Indiana will result in Indiana’s vote in the Senate siding with the Souder is a former Republican congressman from Democrats in how the body is organized.