HALOGEN COMMUNICATIONS – BRIEFING – APRIL/MAY 2021 Halogen Communications Guide to the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election Introduction On 6 May, Scottish voters will go to the polls for an election like no other against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is the sixth Holyrood election since devolution, one which the SNP hope to win a remarkable fourth term in office, but one in which their dominance may be challenged, not necessarily by the main opposition unionist parties, but through the continued fallout from the Salmond inquiry and the emergence of the pro-independence Alba Party led by Alex Salmond. This election will not only have wide ranging implications for Scottish politics but will also have consequences for the UK’s constitutional future if the SNP win an outright majority, or if there is an increased presence of pro-independence MSPs. Opinion polls have shown that the previous lead for independence has narrowed in recent weeks, with some even indicating that the No side is in front. It is highly probable that the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland and it would take a truly remarkable reversal of fortunes for this not to happen. As neither Douglas Ross or Anas Sarwar will hold the keys to Bute House, a more realistic objective for the unionist parties would be to prevent an SNP overall majority, or even pro-independence majority of MSPs. After all, it was the SNP’s majority in 2011 that provided the catalyst for the independence referendum three years later. All of the parties have put forward ambitious policies to the electorate in their manifestos, but there has been some criticism from the Institute for Fiscal Studies for the unrealistic levels of public spending from the main three parties. Amidst the glut of lofty promises, voters may simply decide whom they trust the most to deliver and guide the country towards its recovery. Whatever happens on 6th May will have implications for businesses and organisations in terms of their public affairs strategies in Scotland but also from the Scottish Government continuing to ‘lead the way’ on the domestic agenda – particularly on public health and the environment – and consequently affecting the policy debate elsewhere in the UK. 1 HALOGEN COMMUNICATIONS – BRIEFING – APRIL/MAY 2021 To help you understand the main issues in this important election and better prepare for its aftermath, Halogen have provided a comprehensive guide on what you need to know, including: • The main themes of the campaign; • An analysis of the state of the parties; • A list of target seats, MSPs at risk, retiring MSPs, and candidates to watch; • The likely scenarios in forming the next Scottish Government; and • A full list of constituency and regional candidates. The Basics of the 2021 Election • Voters aged 16+ will go to the polls on 6 May to elect 129 MSPs using the Additional Members System. In this election, they will have two votes: one for their local constituency MSP, the other for a regional party list. • There are 73 Constituency MSPs, each elected on a first-past-the-post system similar to the UK General Election – the winner is the candidate who receives the most votes in each constituency. • In the regional ballot, people vote for a party. The parties are then allocated a number of MSPs depending on how many votes they receive – once the number of constituencies already won in that region is taken into account – to make the overall result more proportional. • There are eight electoral regions, each with seven regional MSPs. These are: Central Scotland, Glasgow, Highlands and Islands, Lothian, Mid-Scotland and Fife, North East Scotland, South Scotland and West Scotland. This means that people are each represented by eight MSPs; one representing their constituency and the other seven representing their region. • Due to Covid-19 restrictions, traditional electioneering – town hall meetings, canvassing, street stalls – have been curtailed, with much of the campaign being fought online and, on the airwaves, particularly on social media, virtual hustings and televised debates. Many voters have already voted by post, with postal ballots having increased to a record level. • The results will not be known until the weekend of 8/9th May as votes will not be counted until the morning after the election. Main Election Themes There are two overriding main issues dominating the campaign: Scotland’s recovery from the pandemic and Scotland’s constitutional future. Pandemic Leadership The SNP are attempting to link the two, arguing that the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has demonstrated strong and decisive leadership throughout the pandemic, and that only through gaining the powers through independence could Scotland shape its post-pandemic recovery, while a Boris Johnson led government at Westminster would hold Scotland back. However, the Scottish Government have suffered many of the same problems as their Westminster counterparts in responding to Covid-19 but there remains a widespread perception that Nicola Sturgeon and her government have handled events well. Indeed, the public often credit the SNP 2 HALOGEN COMMUNICATIONS – BRIEFING – APRIL/MAY 2021 Government for successful measures that were introduced by the UK Government, be it funding for Covid-19 grant support, furlough or the vaccine roll out. The SNP will have hoped they could have framed the election around the leadership of the First Minister but the return of Alex Salmond to frontline politics will mean that Nicola Sturgeon will not be able to move on from her role in the Scottish Government’s handling of harassment complaints against the former First Minister – this is despite winning a vote of confidence in parliament and being cleared of breaching the Ministerial Code in James Hamilton QC’s report. Polling undertaken before and after her Committee appearance in March showed that the Salmond affair was having an impact on support for the SNP as well as independence, meaning that she was unable to draw a line under the issue. Nonetheless, Sturgeon still manages to retain reasonably high levels of public approval according to the polls, which the SNP will be looking to capitalise on when faced by two rookie leaders in Douglas Ross of the Scottish Conservatives and Anas Sarwar of Scottish Labour. Constitutional Battles While criticising the SNP for their focus over a second independence referendum, the unionist parties have highlighted that indyref2 would be a distraction from the day job of preparing Scotland’s recovery from Covid-19, which will form a crucial part of the Scottish Conservatives’ campaigning strategy. For Scottish Labour, they can attack both administrations at Holyrood and Westminster for their obsession over the constitution while putting forward their own detailed recovery plan. The Lib Dems will also continue to oppose a second independence referendum, even if there is a pro- independence majority of MSPs, but have also set out plans for a federal UK as a third way between unionism and nationalism. The emergence of Alba reminds pro-independence minded voters that they can use their vote tactically, backing the SNP or even a Scottish Green candidate on the constituency ballot, but supporting Alba on the regional list, in an attempt to secure even more pro-independence MSPs and keep the constitutional battle front and centre of Scottish politics. Analysis: State of the Parties All opinion polls consistently point to the fact that the Scottish National Party will be the largest party following May’s election – the question remains as to whether they will form a majority government, or will enter into a coalition with the Scottish Greens, or continue as a minority administration with the support of pro-independence parties for their Budget and key pieces of legislation. A majority SNP Government, elected with a manifesto commitment to hold a second independence referendum, would in their eyes constitute a mandate for indyref 2. The SNP have been in government for 14 years, and will therefore face a challenge in convincing voters that they have a fresh and compelling vision for Scotland. They will need four additional MSPs in order to form a majority. 3 HALOGEN COMMUNICATIONS – BRIEFING – APRIL/MAY 2021 Given the fact that the SNP will be the largest party is a foregone conclusion, the more intriguing battle will be the battle for second place. The Scottish Conservatives will once again hope to be the second largest party at Holyrood. In 2016, Ruth Davidson led an impressive campaign focusing on opposition to a second independence referendum, pushing Kezia Dugdale’s Labour into third. However, Douglas Ross – an MP who intends to return to Holyrood via the regional list – has thus far failed to make much of an impact and lacks the appeal of Ruth Davidson who has featured prominently in the campaign despite the fact that she will step down as an MSP and take a seat in the House of Lords. Realistically, the party will be aiming to increase its number of seats and remain second largest party and prevent the SNP winning a majority. Scottish Labour once reigned supreme in Scottish politics, dominating the Scottish political scene at Westminster and Holyrood. It formed the first devolved Scottish Executive in coalition with the Lib Dems from 1999 to 2007. Since being ejected from office, the party has been in decline, going through numerous leaders, and failing to challenge the SNP. The party suffered further difficulties as a consequence of being part of Better Together, the pro-union alliance during the independence referendum, with many traditional Labour voters switching their allegiance to the SNP. Anas Sarwar, the new Scottish Labour leader, intends to arrest the decline and position the party as the leading opposition in Scotland. Sarwar, a centrist and moderate, has won plaudits for his parliamentary debating skills, his slick messaging, and his performances during the televised debates.