Labour Market Information Resource. Northwest Territories Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment RESOURCE APRIL 2016 Labour Market Information Resource: Northwest Territories Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment The Conference Board of Canada Preface The following Labour Market Information Resource was prepared for the Government of the Northwest Territories Department of Education, Culture and Employment. Contributors include Adam Fiser and Kala Pendakur from Public Policy (Northern and Aboriginal Policy); and Marie-Christine Bernard, Julie Adès, Fares Bounajm, and Justin Cooke from Forecasting and Analysis (Economic Outlook and Analysis). To cite this resource: The Conference Board of Canada. Labour Market Information Resource: Northwest Territories Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment. Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada, 2016. ©2016 The Conference Board of Canada* Published in Canada | All rights reserved | Agreement No. 40063028 | *Incorporated as AERIC Inc. An accessible version of this document for the visually impaired is available upon request. Accessibility Officer, The Conference Board of Canada Tel.: 613-526-3280 or 1-866-711-2262 E-mail: [email protected] ®The Conference Board of Canada and the torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board, Inc. Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. The findings and conclusions of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the external reviewers, advisors, or investors. Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation remain the sole responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada. CONTENTS Chapter 1 1 Introduction Chapter 2 6 Socio-Economic Profile of Labour Market Issues in the N.W.T. 9 Demographic Forces 15 Industry Activity and Occupational Classification 26 Labour Supply Characteristics 29 Labour Force Activity by Highest Level of Education 34 GNWT Labour Force Chapter 3 45 Education and Skills Attainment 47 How Does the N.W.T. Perform on High School Attainment Compared With Other Territories? 48 How Does N.W.T. Perform on Post-Secondary Education Attainment Compared With Other Territories? 49 Is There a Gender Gap in Territorial Post-Secondary Attainment? 50 What Are the Income Advantages From Having Post-Secondary Degrees and Certification in the Territory? 53 Regional Profiles of Highest Education Attainment, by Census Division Working-Age Populations 54 Adult Workplace Skills and Competencies in the N.W.T. 60 Student Enrolment in Aurora College (Post-Secondary Education) 61 Data Gaps and Quality Issues 62 What Have We Learned From Chapters 2 and 3? Chapter 4 65 Introduction to the Territorial Forecasting Model 70 The Base Case Economic Forecast 76 Alternative Economic Forecasting Assumptions 78 The Medium Case Economic Forecast 80 The High Case Economic Forecast 82 Demographic Trends: History and Forecasts Chapter 5 87 Occupational Demand Scenarios 91 Forecast Results by Top Occupations 106 Forecast Results by Occupational Categories 120 Forecast Results for Rotational Workers 124 Forecast Results by NOC Skill Levels 130 What Have We Learned From Chapters 4 and 5? Appendix A 133 Bibliography Appendix B 138 Demographic Profile 138 Population by Age, Sex, and Ethnicity, N.W.T. 141 Population by Age, Gender, Ethnicity, and Region Appendix C 153 Industry and Occupational Classification Appendix D 179 Feeder Provinces and Territories 180 Population by Age and Sex 186 Highest Degree of Education 192 Labour Force Characterization Appendix E 210 Government of the Northwest Territories Profile 210 GNWT Employee Demographics 220 GNWT Employee Distribution by Occupation Appendix F 228 Education and Skills Attainment 228 Highest Level of Education, N.W.T. 233 Highest Degree of Education by Region 236 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies 239 Alberta Achievement Tests—English Language Arts 242 Alberta Achievement Tests—Math 245 Functional Grade Levels—English Language Arts 248 Functional Grade Levels—Math 251 Attendance Rates 254 Aurora College Appendix G 262 Conference Board of Canada Labour Market Forecast 274 GDP by Forecast 280 Top 50 Occupations by Employment 286 Top 50 Occupations by Job Openings 292 Top 50 Occupations by Expansion Demand 298 Forecast by Occupational Group 323 Rotational Workers 329 List of Occupations by Grouping Acknowledgements The Northwest Territories Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment was prepared for the Government of the Northwest Territories Department of Education, Culture and Employment. Contributors include Adam Fiser and Kala Pendakur from Public Policy (Northern and Aboriginal Policy); and Marie-Christine Bernard, Julie Adès, Fares Bounajm, and Justin Cooke from Forecasting and Analysis (Economic Outlook and Analysis). Prepared for the Government of the Northwest Territories. About Northern and Aboriginal Policy Northern and Aboriginal Policy is an interdisciplinary practice under The Conference Board of Canada’s Public Policy division. It is dedicated to advancing collaborative policy research within strategic areas of concern to Northerners and Aboriginal Peoples. The Northern and Aboriginal Policy team also works directly with clients to develop custom projects that address their particular issues and concerns. Current areas of focus include: • community resilience and community-readiness based strategic planning; • labour market development and entrepreneurship; • infrastructure and major projects development; and • health and wellness. CHAPTER 1 Introduction Chapter Summary • Chapter 1 presents an overview of the socio-economic profile and forecasts presented in this resource. This resource document is intended for readers who would like an in-depth look at the results of The Conference Board of Canada’s briefing, entitled Northwest Territories Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment. • The socio-economic profile in chapters 2 and 3 and the forecasts in chapters 4 and 5 are derived from information provided in a series of appendices, B through G. In total there are over 200 charts and over 170 tables. To fully capture the analysis, the reader should follow the data presented in the appendices. Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca LaboUR MarKet Information ResoUrce Northwest Territories Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment The Northwest Territories (N.W.T.) is opening a new chapter in its history. With the onset of devolution and progress in Aboriginal self- governance, alongside increased global trade and strong national interest in the North and its natural resources, the N.W.T. economy has substantial growth potential. Yet, with increasing socio-economic change and pressures to be more competitive and innovative come an urgent need to boost workforce readiness and skills development. Recognizing these opportunities and challenges, the Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT) launched Skills 4 Success, an initiative to improve employment success for N.W.T. residents, close skills gaps for in-demand jobs, and develop education and training programs that more effectively respond to employer and industry needs. In 2015, the GNWT engaged The Conference Board of Canada to develop a Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment (LMFNA) for the territory as part of the GNWT’s Skills 4 Success Initiative. It has two main objectives. • to help the GNWT and its stakeholders better understand the characteristics of the N.W.T.’s current labour market and resident labour force; • to help the GNWT and its stakeholders anticipate employer hiring needs under current market conditions and reasonable alternative scenarios up to the year 2030. The main findings of the LMFNA are presented in a separate briefing, Northwest Territories Labour Market Forecast and Needs Assessment (www.conferenceboard.ca/e-Library/abstract.aspx?did=7512). This companion resource provides a more detailed analysis of the Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca 2 Chapter 1 | The Conference Board of Canada contemporary N.W.T. labour force, along with forecasts of general economic activity and occupational demand in the territory under different scenarios. The first objective of the LMFNA, captured in chapters 2 and 3, is to provide an overview of current and historic labour market characteristics in the Northwest Territories. To this end, Chapter 2 of the resource presents a socio-economic profile of the territorial population and its resident workforce. The profile reviews key demographics, industry activity and occupational classification, and labour supply characteristics. Chapter 3 then focuses in on the state of education and skills attainment in the territory. The profile pays careful attention to the territory’s Northern economic characteristics and to the socio-economic differences between its resident Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations. The analysis draws on the 2014 NWT Community Survey,1 and whenever available data allow, it breaks out into regional profiles of the territory’s six census divisions. The second objective of the LMFNA, captured in chapters 4 and 5, is to provide a set of economic forecasts and related occupational demand scenarios for the N.W.T. up to 2030. This work is based on The Conference Board of Canada’s Territorial Forecasting Model. Three separate forecasts (base case, medium case, and high case) and occupational demand scenarios