Drug Violence in Mexico Data and Analysis Through 2013 SPECIAL REPORT By Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira , and David A. Shirk Justice in Mexico Project Department of Political Science & International Relations University of San Diego APRIL 2014 About Justice in Mexico: Started in 2001, Justice in Mexico (www.justiceinmexico.org) is a program dedicated to promoting analysis, informed public discourse and policy decisions; and government, academic, and civic cooperation to improve public security, rule of law, and human rights in Mexico. Justice in Mexico advances its mission through cutting-edge, policy-focused research; public education and outreach; and direct engagement with policy makers, experts, and stakeholders. The program is presently based at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of San Diego (USD), and involves university faculty, students, and volunteers from the United States and Mexico. From 2005-2013, the project was based at the USD Trans-Border Institute at the Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, and from 2001-2005 it was based at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California- San Diego. About the Report: This is one of a series of special reports that have been published on a semi-annual by Justice in Mexico since 2010, each of which examines issues related to crime and violence, judicial sector reform, and human rights in Mexico. The Drug Violence in Mexico report series examines patterns of crime and violence attributable to organized crime, and particularly drug trafficking organizations in Mexico. This report was authored by Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk, and builds on the work of past reports in this series. The report was formally released on April 10, 2014 and was made possible by the generous support of The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. This report does not represent the views or opinons of the University of San Diego or the sponsoring organization. Copyright Justice in Mexico, 2014. ISBN-10: 978-0-9960663-0-6 ISBN-13: 978-0-9960663-0-3 Justice in Mexico Department of Political Science & International Relations University of San Diego 5998 Alcalá Park, San Diego, CA 92103 Drug Violence in Mexico Data and Analysis Through 2013 SPECIAL REPORT Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk Justice in Mexico Department of Political Science & International Relations University of San Diego TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST%OF%FIGURES%....................................................................................................................%iii! LIST%OF%TABLES%......................................................................................................................%iii! LIST%OF%ACRONYMS%...............................................................................................................%iv! EXECUTIVE%SUMMARY%............................................................................................................%2! I.%INTRODUCTION%...................................................................................................................%5! II.%WHY%VIOLENCE%IN%MEXICO%MATTERS%.................................................................................%6! A.#Mexico’s#Homicide#Rate#in#Perspective#...................................................................................................#6! B.#International#Attention#to#Mexico’s#Violence#in#Perspective#..................................................................#8! C.#The#Role#of#Drug#Trafficking#and#Organized#Crime#in#Mexico#...............................................................#10! III.%“DRUG%VIOLENCE”:%DEFINITIONS,%DATA,%AND%METHODOLOGIES%.....................................%11! A.#Defining#the#Problem#............................................................................................................................#11! B.#The#Available#Data#Sources#and#Their#Limitations#.................................................................................#13! 1.#Government#Data#on#Homicide#.........................................................................................................#13! 2.#Organized7Crime7Style#Homicides#.....................................................................................................#13! 3.#Analytical#and#Methodological#Concerns#..........................................................................................#16! IV.%FINDINGS:%DRUG%VIOLENCE%IN%MEXICO%...........................................................................%20! A.#Overall#Levels#of#Homicide#Have#Declined#but#Remain#High#................................................................#20! B.#OrganizedNCrimeNStyle#Killings#Constitute#a#Major#Share#of#All#Homicides#...........................................#22! C.#Shifting#Geographic#Patterns#of#Violence#..............................................................................................#26! 1.#Expanded#Geographic#Distribution#oF#Intentional#Homicides#............................................................#26! 2.#Distribution#oF#Organized7Crime7Style#Homicides#.............................................................................#30! 3.#SigniFicant#Decreases#in#Local#Centers#oF#Violence#............................................................................#32! D.#Victim#Characteristics#............................................................................................................................#33! 1.#General#Population#............................................................................................................................#33! 2.#Changing#Modes#oF#Violence#.............................................................................................................#34! 3.#Mayors#...............................................................................................................................................#34! 4.#Journalists#..........................................................................................................................................#35! 4.#Police#and#Military#Personnel#............................................................................................................#37! C.#Comparing#Administrations#...................................................................................................................#38! III.%ANALYSIS%OF%DEVELOPMENTS%IN%2013%.............................................................................%39! A.#Promises,#Preoccupations,#and#Expectations#in#Peña#Nieto’s#First#Year#in#Office#.................................#39! B.#CounterNDrug#Efforts#.............................................................................................................................#40! C.#The#Military,#the#National#Gendarmerie,#and#the#Judicial#Sector#.........................................................#43! D.#Citizen#Security#Concerns:#Kidnapping#and#Extortion#...........................................................................#45! E.#The#Rise#of#Self#Defense#Forces#.............................................................................................................#46! F.#U.S.NMexico#Security#Relations#..............................................................................................................#48! G.#Emphasis#on#Coordination#and#Centralization#......................................................................................#48! IV.%CONCLUSION%...................................................................................................................%49! % LIST%OF%FIGURES% Figure'1:'National'Homicide'Rates'(per'100,000'inhabitants)'for'Selected'Latin'American'Countries'.........................'6! Figure'2:'Homicide'Rate'in'Mexico,'1995I2012'.......................................................................................................................................'7! Figure'3:'Total'Homicides'in'Selected'Neighboring'Countries,'1995I2011'.................................................................................'7! Figure'4:'New'York'Times'Coverage'of'Mexico'and'Selected'Latin'American'Countries'(with'and'without' References'to'Violence)'.......................................................................................................................................................................................'9! Figure'5:'Map'of'Mass'Gravesites'(Narcofosas)'and'Number'of'Bodies'Located,'2010I2013'..........................................'18! Figure'6:'Total'Annual'Intentional'Homicides'in'Mexico'as'Reported'by'INEGI'&'SNSP'(1990I2013)'........................'21! Figure'7:'Total'Monthly'Intentional'Homicides'(2006I2013)'........................................................................................................'22! Figure'8:'Comparison'of'Intentional'Homicide'and'Organized'Crime'Homicide'for'Various'Sources,'1990'through' 2013'..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................'23! Figure'9:'Comparison'of'Intentional'Homicide'and'Organized'Crime'Homicide'for'Various'Sources'in'2013'.........'25! Figure'10:'Distribution'of'Homicides'by'Municipality,'1990I2012'..............................................................................................'26! Figure'11:'Geographic'Distribution'of'Homicide'Rate'by'Municipality,'2005I2012'....................................................................'27!