GM Science Update A report to the Council for Science and Technology March, 2014 Professor Sir David Baulcombe, University of Cambridge Professor Jim Dunwell, University of Reading Professor Jonathan Jones, Sainsbury Laboratory Professor John Pickett, Rothamsted Research Professor Pere Puigdomenech, University of Cambridge/ Barcelona GM Science Update EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................ 1 PART 1: EXPERIENCE OF GM CROP CULTIVATION................................................................ 5 Summary ...........................................................................................................................................................................5 Introduction .....................................................................................................................................................................6 A. Agriculture...................................................................................................................................................................6 A1. Socio‐economic and environmental impacts..................................................................................................................8 A2. Farm income effects...................................................................................................................................................................8 A3. Commercial GM cultivation in the EU.............................................................................................................................10 A4. GM crop regulation in the USA...........................................................................................................................................10 A5. GM crop field trials in the EU and elsewhere ..............................................................................................................11 B. Horticulture.............................................................................................................................................................. 13 B1. Papaya...........................................................................................................................................................................................13 B2. Other commercialized horticultural products ............................................................................................................13 C. Forestry...................................................................................................................................................................... 13 PART 2: NEW SCIENTIFIC DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE LAST 5 YEARS.................................. 15 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 15 A. GM traits “in the pipeline” to benefit many crops ........................................................................................ 16 A1. Enhanced photosynthesis ....................................................................................................................................................16 A2. Stress tolerance.........................................................................................................................................................................16 A3. Aluminium tolerance..............................................................................................................................................................17 A4. Salinity ..........................................................................................................................................................................................17 A5. Pest and disease resistance .................................................................................................................................................18 A6. Nitrogen use efficiency..........................................................................................................................................................18 A7. Phosphate use efficiency.......................................................................................................................................................19 A8. Nitrogen fixation ......................................................................................................................................................................19 B. GM traits for European crops.............................................................................................................................. 20 B1. Wheat ............................................................................................................................................................................................20 B2. Potato (and apple)...................................................................................................................................................................20 B3. Rapeseed (Brassica napus) and other oilseeds ..........................................................................................................21 B4. Tomato..........................................................................................................................................................................................21 B5. Bio‐fuels and industrial biotechnology ..........................................................................................................................24 C. GM traits for developing countries.................................................................................................................... 24 C1. Nutritional enhancement (biofortification) – vitamin A, iron and zinc ...........................................................25 C2. Banana diseases........................................................................................................................................................................26 C3. Bt brinjal /eggplant /aubergine.........................................................................................................................................27 C4. Bt cowpea.....................................................................................................................................................................................27 C5. Cassava diseases.......................................................................................................................................................................27 D. New enabling techniques and methods........................................................................................................... 28 D1. Synthetic biology......................................................................................................................................................................28 D2. High throughput sequencing technologies...................................................................................................................28 D3. Directed methods for producing mutations and for plant transformation ...................................................29 PART 3: SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................................................... 32 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 32 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 32 A. Regulation of GM crops in the EU and elsewhere ......................................................................................... 32 B. The consequence of a stringent EU regulatory framework ...................................................................... 34 C. Is GM regulation necessary? ................................................................................................................................ 35 C1. Human and animal health ....................................................................................................................................................36 C2. Environmental damage .........................................................................................................................................................36 C3. Unknown unknowns...............................................................................................................................................................38 PART 4: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS........................................................... 39 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 39 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 39 A. Research and Development................................................................................................................................