The extent and geographic distribution of chronic poverty in Iraq’s Center/South Region By : Tarek El-Guindi Hazem Al Mahdy John McHarris United Nations World Food Programme May 2003 Table of Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................1 Background:.........................................................................................................................................3 What was being evaluated? .............................................................................................................3 Who were the key informants?........................................................................................................3 How were the interviews conducted?..............................................................................................3 Main Findings......................................................................................................................................4 The extent of chronic poverty..........................................................................................................4 The regional and geographic distribution of chronic poverty .........................................................5 How might baseline chronic poverty data support current Assessment and planning activities?...8 Baseline chronic poverty data and targeting assistance during the post-war period .......................9 Strengths and weaknesses of the analysis, and possible next steps:..............................................11 Conclusion .........................................................................................................................................13 Appendix-A: Data Collection and Analysis ......................................................................................15 Appendix-B: Governorate Chronic Poverty Maps ............................................................................17 Appendix-C: Districts Sorted/Ranked on Percent Chronically Poor.................................................30 Appendix-D: Governorate Tables......................................................................................................32 ii Executive Summary The paper describes an analysis of chronic poverty for the Center/South region of Iraq. The work was undertaken by WFP Iraq, with support from WFP’s regional Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping/VAM unit based in Cairo. The study had two basic objectives; 1) to better understand the magnitude of chronic poverty within the region, and 2) to better understand the geographic and spatial distribution of chronic poverty at a sub-national (district) scale. The data supporting the analysis was based on key informant interviews; with WFP Iraqi national staff participating as key- informants. The interviews were conducted during the months preceding the war, and were part of WFP’s broader contingency planning and emergency preparedness activities. Using structured interviews, key informants were asked to qualitatively evaluate the prevalence of chronic poverty for districts within Iraq’s 15 “Center South” governorates1. Three key informants were interviewed per governorate, and only districts belonging to the same governorate were evaluated against one another2. Steps were taken to ensure that all key informants had a firm and common understanding of “chronic poverty”; prior to conducting the interviews. A chronic poverty definition was first reviewed in training sessions, and later reviewed again during the actual interviews. Chronic poverty was defined as: A set of conditions whereby a household or individual is frequently over long periods of time unable to meet basic needs. Basic needs include adequate food, water, clothing, shelter, health, and basic education. “Chronic” poverty refers to deprivation that is long term by nature. Also reviewed was the definition of “percent poor”; simply “the percent of the population poor3, within a given administrative area”. It is important to emphasize that the study occurred during a period when PDS food rations were regularly ongoing. There is general consensus that many Iraqi households would be unable to survive without food rations. A previous Save the Children report on livelihoods in North Iraq concluded: Most households are extremely vulnerable to external shocks, including unplanned changes in the sanctions system. … They have little (if any) capacity to expand to other coping strategies and economic activities.4 Ration dependency is very high, largely due to the fact that household incomes have fallen dramatically during the sanctions era. Despite the fact that rations represent a significant income transfer to most Iraqi households; the findings of this study estimate that approximately 21% of Iraq’s Center/South population are chronically poor; or unable to meet their basic needs over long periods of time. By design, this 1 Center South Governorates include all governorates except Erbil, Dahuk, and Sulaymaniyah. For an analysis of chronic poverty for the three Northern governorates see The extent and geographic distribution of chronic poverty in Iraq’s Northern Governorates; ElGuindi, Almahdy, and McHarris; May 2003”. 2 For three of the 15 Center/South governorates (Al Anbar, An Najaf, and Al Qadisiyah) , only one key informant was interviewed due to time constraints. The results reported for these three governorates should be interpreted more cautiously. 3 Percent poor in this context actually refers to the percent of the district population chronically poor. The size of the larger “poor” population (including both the chronically poor; and the transient poor) fluctuates over time; as households fall in or out of poverty due to changing economic circumstances. 4 Understanding Kurdish livelihoods in Northern Iraq; Alastair Kirk and Gary Sawdon, January 2002. study did not attempt to quantify the larger “poor” population. The more inclusive “poor” category encompasses both the transient poor; i.e. those whose poverty status is not long term in nature, as well as the “chronics”. The findings conclude that just over 1/5th of the region is chronically poor, representing approximately 4.6 million of the Center/South’s total population of 22.3 million. These estimates should be interpreted as approximate (i.e. not precise); due to the nature of the approach and methodology used. The main body of the report includes maps showing the geographic distribution of chronic poverty throughout the Center/South region. Concentrations occur within a relatively small number of districts. Twenty districts contain approximately 3.3 million chronically poor, or about 72% of the 4.6 million total. These same districts account for approximately 62% of Iraq’s total Center/South population. While the general population distribution clearly influences the size and the geographic distribution of the chronically poor population; a significant number of districts have disproportionately large chronically poor populations, due to their high chronic poverty rates. District level chronic poverty rates are shown in the Figure-3 map. The rates are given as percentage figures, and portray the size of the chronically poor population relative to the size of the total district population. The Center/South contains numerous areas with high chronic poverty rates. Two clusters of such districts are located towards the East of the country and border Iran. The first cluster lies east of Baghdad and includes areas within the governorates of Taamim, Salah al Din, Diyala, and Wassit. A second cluster, located in the southeast corner of the country, includes all of Basrah governorate, and most of southern Missan. Basrah governorate is particularly noteworthy in that all of it’s districts are classified as having either high, or very high chronic poverty rates. Chronic poverty rates for districts containing the administrative centers (governorate capital cities) were significantly lower when compared with rates for other districts. The average chronic poverty rate for districts containing governorate administrative centers was 17%, as compared to 27% for all other districts in the Center/South region. Past developments related to uneven capital spending and investment, or inequitable public sector resource allocation might have contributed to these differences. Further study and research is needed for a better understanding of causal factors. The report includes some forward thinking about the potential utility of chronic poverty data and maps during the post-war stabilization period. The revitalized Public Distribution System (PDS) will operate for an unknown, although “finite” period of time. The focus of assistance will eventually shift towards longer term reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts, with a subsequent need to implement more targeted and selective interventions. Recovery assistance should logically be targeted to those districts of the country that contain larger numbers or higher densities of chronically poor populations. While future socioeconomic surveys and analyses will undoubtedly shed new light on where future assistance is most needed; time will unfold before such survey results are widely available. 2 Background: The main purpose of this report is to present recent findings on the extent and geographic distribution of chronic poverty throughout Iraq’s Center/South region. The analysis occurred within the broader context of WFP’s contingency planning and