DRAFT GORE PASS ELK HERD MANAGEMENT PLAN DATA ANALYSIS UNIT E–07 GAME MANAGEMENT UNITS 15 & 27 PREPARED FOR COLORADO PARKS AND WILDLIFE BY JEFF YOST and NATHANIEL MEADOWS THIS PLAN WAS APPROVED BY THE COLORADO PARKS AND WILDLIFE COMMISSION ON XXXXXX DRAFT E-07 HERD MANAGEMENT PLAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Gore Pass Elk Herd (DAU E-7) GMUs: 15 & 27 Posthunt Population: Previous Objective: 4,000-5,000 elk; 2019 Estimate: 4,697 elk. Preferred Alternative: 4,000–5,000 elk Posthunt Sex Ratio (Bulls: 100 Cows): Previous Objective: 24-28; Posthunt 2019 observed: 22.5; modeled: 18.7. Preferred Alternative: 24–28 bulls: 100 cows Expected (OTC Unit) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 NUMBER OF ELK OF NUMBER 3,000 2,000 1999 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YEAR 1500 E-7 Population Estimate Figure 1. E-7 modeled post hunt population and objective range, 1986-2019. 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 NUMBER OF ELKNUMBER OF 200 0 1992 2005 2018 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 YEAR Bulls Cow & Calf Total Figure 2. E-7 harvest estimates, 1986-2019. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 BULLS: 100 COWS BULLS: 5 0 1992 2005 2018 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 YEAR Observed Sex Ratio Objective Range Modeled Figure 3. E-7 Observed and Modeled Bulls: 100 Cows, 1986-2019. i DRAFT E-07 HERD MANAGEMENT PLAN Background Information Gore Pass DAU E-7 is comprised of GMUs 15 and 27 and includes all or portions of Grand, Routt, Jackson, and Eagle counties. Approximately 37% of E-7 is privately owned, while the remaining 63% is managed by a variety of state and federal land management agencies. The DAU straddles the Gore Range Divide between the Yampa River drainage and the Muddy Creek drainage. Elevations range from nearly 11,000 feet along the center of the DAU to below 7,000 feet on the edges of the DAU. Lower elevations are generally used for agricultural production, while higher elevations are grazed by livestock during summer months. The communities around the perimeter of the DAU include Steamboat Springs, Oak Creek, Yampa, and Kremmling. The E-7 elk population reached its peak of approximately 7,000 elk in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. As a result of intentional strategies to increase harvest, the population has decreased and generally remained within or near the objective range since 2010. The bull: cow ratio has increased over time in response to limited 4th season cow and either-sex harvest. Calf: cow ratios are generally stable. Significant Issues Significant issues that affect the E-7 elk population include increasing residential development on important winter ranges and increasing recreational activity year round leading to both direct and indirect habitat loss that including beetle kill and wildfire. The long-term observed calf: cow ratio has declined slightly from 1986-2019 but is generally stable. Human pressure from both hunting and non-hunting activities on public lands push elk onto private lands leading to game damage by elk on private land. Management Alternatives The current management objectives for E-7 are 4,000–5,000 elk and 24-28 bulls: 100 cows. Note that the current designation for sex ratio in over the counter (OTC) license units is considered “expected” rather than a goal that can be achieved in OTC units. These objectives were set through a complete Herd Management Planning process in 2004. There is substantial internal CPW and public support for maintaining these current management objectives. Herd Management Plans with strong support for current status and objectives do not require a full revision and may simply be extended through a streamlined amendment process. In 2018, an abbreviated public outreach process was completed that included a public survey and input from Upper Yampa and Middle Park HPP Committees, the United States Forest Service, and Colorado State Land Board. All the HPP Committees and land management agencies, as well as 60% of public survey respondents supported maintaining the current objectives and extending the current management objectives. ii DRAFT E-07 HERD MANAGEMENT PLAN CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... i Background Information.............................................................................. ii Significant Issues ...................................................................................... ii Management Alternatives ............................................................................ ii INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE ......................................................................... 1 GORE PASS ELK DATA ANALYSIS UNIT DESCRIPTION ................................................. 2 Location ................................................................................................ 2 Physiography ........................................................................................... 3 Land Status ............................................................................................ 5 HABITAT RESOURCE AND CAPABILITIES ............................................................... 7 Habitat Distribution .................................................................................. 7 Habitat Condition and Capability .................................................................. 10 Conflicts with Agriculture .......................................................................... 13 HERD MANAGEMENT HISTORY, ISSUES AND STRATEGIES........................................... 15 Overview of Procedures to Estimate Population Size ........................................... 15 Post-hunt Population Size .......................................................................... 15 Post-hunt Herd Composition........................................................................ 16 Harvest and Hunters ................................................................................. 17 Past Management Strategies ........................................................................ 3 Current Issues ......................................................................................... 4 PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT ................................................................................... 6 PREFERRED ALTERNATIVES AND NEW OBJECTIVES .................................................. 7 LITERATURE CITED ........................................................................................ I APPENDIX I: POPULATION DYNAMICS, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED YIELD, AND DENSITY DEPENDENCE.............................................................................................. II APPENDIX II: COMMENT LETTERS..................................................................... IV APPENDIX III PUBLIC SURVEY ......................................................................... VIII APPENDIX IV PUBLIC SURVEY RESULTS ............................................................... XI DRAFT E-07 HERD MANAGEMENT PLAN FIGURES FIGURE 1. CPW'S MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVE PROCESS TO MANAGE BIG GAME POPULATIONS BY DATA ANALYSIS UNIT. ..... 1 FIGURE 2. LOCATION OF DAU E-7. .......................................................................................... 3 FIGURE 3. RUNNING AVERAGE SNOWFALL IN E-7 1981 - 2016. ............................................................. 4 FIGURE 4. RUNNING AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN E-7 1981 - 2016. .......................................................... 5 FIGURE 5. RUNNING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN DAU E-7 (1981-2016).................................................... 5 FIGURE 6. LAND OWNERSHIP IN E-7. ......................................................................................... 6 FIGURE 7. VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION IN E-7. ............................................................................... 7 FIGURE 8. ELK SUMMER ACTIVITIES IN E-7. ................................................................................... 8 FIGURE 9. ELK WINTER ACTIVITIES IN E-7. ................................................................................... 9 FIGURE 10. EXTENT OF MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE DAMAGE, 1997-2014. .................................................... 10 FIGURE 11. SILVER CREEK FIRE PUBLIC INFORMATION MAP (OCTOBER 10, 2018). ........................................ 11 FIGURE 12. E-7 MODELED POSTHUNT POPULATION SIZE AND OBJECTIVE RANGE, 1986 - 2019. .......................... 16 FIGURE 13. OBSERVED CALF: COW RATIOS IN E-7, 1986 - 2019. ......................................................... 16 FIGURE 14. E-7 OBSERVED BULL: COW RATIOS 1986 - 2019. ............................................................ 17 FIGURE 15. LICENSE ALLOCATION BY METHOD OF TAKE IN E-7, 2000 - 2019. .............................................. 1 FIGURE 16. E-7 HARVEST 1986 - 2019. .................................................................................... 1 FIGURE 17. SUCCESS RATES BY METHOD OF TAKE IN E-7, 2000 - 2019. .................................................... 2 FIGURE 18. NUMBER OF HUNTERS BY METHOD OF TAKE IN E-7, 2000 - 2019. .............................................. 2 FIGURE 19. PUBLIC INPUT ON HERD MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES IN E-7, AUGUST 2018. ..................................... 7 FIGURE