Niger | presidential runoff February 9, 2021 Recent events and developments On 21 February, the Nigerien population will head to the polls to vote in the country’s presidential runoff election. It will mark the first democratic transfer of power after the nation’s independence from France. The first electoral round in December last year went peacefully, but the country’s border region with Mali and Burkina Faso continues to be victimized from terrorist attacks by extremists groups affiliated with Al-Qaida and Islamic State. A state of emergency has been imposed in the Filingué department following an increase in terrorist attacks in early January. The areas surrounding polling stations are on high alert during the elections. Assessment Impact Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, elections will continue There have been no significant protests leading up to in Niger. President Mahamadou Issoufou is stepping the presidential runoff so far, but it is possible that down after two five-year terms and is aware that they erupt at some point. A victory for Bazoum could postponing elections would lead to accusations of term trigger angry sentiments among the 18 opposition elongation. The second electoral round will decide parties and their followers who threatened to reject whether Mohamed Bazoum or Mahamane Ousmane the results of the coming second round. This group becomes the next president. Neither candidate has already protested in November after main managed to win the 50% vote to win the election opponent Hama Amadou was rejected from the outright in the first round. Bazoum, candidate of the ballot. Protests will most likely occur in the city current ruling party, appears to be the favourite with Niamey, on Place de la Concertation, Tillabery Road, 39,6% of the votes during the first round. Ousmane the Gadafawa traffic circle and the Headquarters of received 16,9%. The elections take place in a context of Bazoum’s party PNDS. If the wave of terrorist attacks a deteriorating security situation in the border regions of continues, the government could decide to the country where terrorist attacks took place at the implement a state of emergency in more beginning of the year. A state of emergency has been departments or regions. A state of emergency allows declared in the Filingué department in western Niger, local officials to implement a curfew, increase the which will last until early May. Military presence has amount of security forces and forbid certain types of increased and further measures such as a curfew are clothing and vehicles. Election day itself is often met possible. Even though the next electoral round will mark with increased traffic surrounding polling stations, the first democratic transfer of power, protests cannot which are on higher alert. Intensified security around be ruled out. polling stations is therefore to be expected. Advice from Forth Global: • Be aware of the risk of traffic disruption and possible increased security measures on election day. Limit travel around voting areas and seek alternate routes. • Follow the media in the coming weeks to be up to date on the presidential runoff, possible political unrest, and terrorist activity. • Be aware that a regional state of emergency could be declared in the case of a terrorist attack and curfews are not ruled out. This will primarily affect the freedom of movement and an increase of security forces. • Avoid all protests and large public gatherings as a standard precaution due to potential for escalation. • Refrain from making political statements (in public, private and online) about the presidential runoff. Customized advice We provide a wide range of services to prepare your Please contact us for specific advice: organization and employees for situations like these. More +31 (0) 35 543 04 37 information on our website: www.forthglobal.com DISCLAIMER [email protected] .