International Journal of Zoology and Animal Biology ISSN: 2639-216X MEDWIN PUBLISHERS Committed to Create Value for Researchers Population Dynamics of Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in their Larval Stage: Relationship with Some Climatic Variables through Mathematical Modeling in Villa Clara, Cuba Duarte RF1,2*, Rodriguez RO3, Gavilanes FEZ4, Cardenas JWA5, Yoelvys de la Fe Rodríguez P2, Iannacone J6,7, Gonzalez FMW2 and Garcia RA2 Research Article Volume 4 Issue 1 1Faculty of Health and Nursing Technology, University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara, Cuba Received Date: January 21, 2021 2Career of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences (FAS), Central Published Date: February 08, 2021 University “Marta Abreu” of Las Villas, Cuba DOI: 10.23880/izab-16000273 3Provincial Meteorological Center, Villa Clara, Cuba 4Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Universidad Técnica de Manabí, Cuba 5School of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, School of Agricultural Sciences, Ecuador 6Laboratory of Ecology and Animal Biodiversity, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Federico Villarreal National University. Peru 7Faculty of Biological Sciences, Universidad Ricardo Palma (URP), Peru *Corresponding author: Rigoberto Fimia Duarte, Faculty of Health and Nursing Technology, University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara, Cuba, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences (FAS), Central University "Marta Abreu" of Las Villas, Cuba, ORCID ID: 0000- 0001-5237-0810; Email: [email protected] Abstract some meteorological variables exert in the larval populations of culicids, by means of the mathematical modeling in the Emerging and re-emerging diseases are the health problems have aroused interest world. This work to determine the influence larval densities, and as explanatory variables: relative humidity, temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, mean wind speed province Villa Clara, Cuba. Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) the following variables as responses: general and specific and atmospheric pressure. The real and predicted value was plotted for the province. The analysis of variance corresponding municipalities (Ranchuelo, Sagua la Grande and Santa Clara), the correlations were designed between the predicted and real time series for the General Larval Density (GLD) and the Specific Larval Density (SLD) the province of Villa Clara and in three values from May to October, coinciding with the rainy period in Cuba. Temperature, relative humidity, mean wind speed and value of meteorological variables. General and specific larval densities showed a cyclical and seasonal behavior, with the high atmospheric pressure proved to be excellent predictors of population dynamics of mosquitoes with entomoepidemiological importance and; therefore, for surveillance mosquito borne diseases in both human and animal populations. Predictive models in both urban and rural ecosystems, and their impact on the risk of disease transmission, thus allowing better predictive for general and specific larval densities based on meteorological variables allowed the population dynamics of mosquitoes, scenarios to be developed and supporting the implementation of better control strategies. Keywords: Variables; Villa Clara General Larval Density (GLD); Specific Larval Density (SLD); Mathematical Modeling; Mosquitoes; Climate Population Dynamics of Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in their Larval Stage: Relationship with Some Int J Zoo Animal Biol Climatic Variables through Mathematical Modeling in Villa Clara, Cuba 2 International Journal of Zoology and Animal Biology Abbreviations: GLD: Climate is a key factor determining temporal and Larval Density; UPLVA: Provincial Unit for Surveillance and geographical distribution of arthropods and their life Vector Control; MT: MaximumGeneral LarvalTemperature; Density; SLD:AT: Average Specific cycles, and therefore evolution of associated arboviruses, Temperature; MRH: Maximum Relative Humidity; ARH: Average Relative Humidity; AP: Atmospheric Pressure; AWS: vertebrate hosts [8,10,11,20,33]. As vector reservoirs are Average Wind Speed; ROR: Regressive Objective Modeling. susceptibleas well as the to efficiencyseasonal theychanges are transmittedand climatic by conditionsculicids to and the transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases are Introduction interlinked [42-44]. The impact of climate on vector borne diseases might be mitigated by surveillance systems with Emerging and reemerging diseases are health problems early warning for epidemic outbreaks, thus reducing disease impact [17,20,34,43]. year’s [1-3]; many of them are considered catastrophes resultedwhich have from significantly their high morbidity increased and/or worldwide lethality during as well last as In Cuba, the emergence and reemergence of arboviral their negative economic impact on the health sector, tourism, infections are a health problem as there is a tendency to industry and trading [4-6]. The changing epidemiology and increase the number of cases as well as the populations of predisposing factors for the responsible for the dramatic vector organisms [9,10,45-47]. Although meteorological resurgence of such diseases are complex since a large variables are determinant in the transmission of arboviral proportion are zoonosis [7-10]. Furthermore, global and/or diseases, in Cuba there are few studies on the effect local demographic, social and environmental changes have of these variables on larval density of culicids with led to the spread of infection to humans [11-13]. entomoepidemiological importance. Therefore, this research was undertaken to determine meteorological disturbances, have brought spatiotemporal changesGlobal on warmingthe behavior and ofthe vectors intensification and the diseases of extreme they dynamics of mosquito larval stages through mathematical transmit [14-17]. Meteorological conditions are considered modelingthe influence in Villa of Clarameteorological province, Cuba. variables on population one of the most important factors related to the spread of vector borne diseases, the clematis variables with the most Materials and Methods [18-20]. Nevertheless, other determining factors contribute Study Area tosignificant the appearance influence of are major temperature, epidemic humidityoutbreaks and caused rainfall by local levels of socioeconomic development, the increase in The investigation was carried out in all 13 municipalities human mobility and trading, urbanization and deforestation of Villa Clara province, Cuba, The province, limits to the East [8,16,21]. with Sancti Spíritus province, to the West with Matanzas province, to the South with Cienfuegos province and to the Alongside tropical and subtropical regions, vector borne North with the Atlantic Ocean; its capital and most populated emerging and reemerging diseases affect millions of people city is Santa Clara (Figure 1). yearly [22-25]. Among vectors, culicids are the ones of biggest hygienic-sanitary importance because are responsible for the maintenance and transmission of pathogens causing Malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika, Yellow Fever, West Nile Fever, and Lymphatic Filariosis [26-31]. Malaria is the main parasitic disease worldwide [31,32], it caused 429,000 deaths in 2015. About 90% of malaria- related global deaths occur in Africa, 70% of them in children decades and still the worst arboviral disease [3,33,34], Chikungunyaunder five years and old Zika [31,32]. have emerged Dengue recentlyhas spread [35-39]. during In lastthe Americas, Yellow Fever remains a persistent heath threat 4,066 cases and 58% lethality between 1985 and 2012 [30,31]. An outbreak affected 295 people (72% lethality) in Brazil from December to February 2017 [28,40]. In Africa, 150 Yellow Fever outbreaks were reported between 1980 Source: Provincial Meteorological Center of Villa Clara. and 2012, and 200,000 cases occurred globally [27,28,30,41]. Figure 1: Administrative map of Villa Clara province, Cuba. Duarte RF, et al. Population Dynamics of Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in their Larval Copyright© Duarte RF, et al. Stage: Relationship with Some Climatic Variables through Mathematical Modeling in Villa Clara, Cuba. Int J Zoo Animal Biol 2021, 4(1): 000273. 3 International Journal of Zoology and Animal Biology The Provincial Unit for Surveillance and Vector Control square expressed in square meters. (UPVLA) registered 316,370 houses and/or establishments in the general universe, where 236,391 (74.7%) belong to the Information Analysis urban area. These places cumulate approximately 1,581,850 tanks intended for water storage that provide favorable The surveillance data was organized in Windows Excel conditions for the breeding, proliferation and dissemination by the variables: years, months the reported general and and 218 temporal culicid. and tendencies for each of the variables at the municipal and of culicids. In the province were identified, 304 permanent provincialspecific larval levels. densities. Then, were calculated time series Survey Design Mathematical Modeling This retrospective study based on documentary review of statistical records and archives existing from 2007 to 2017 at UPVLA, at the Provincial Department of Health Objective Modeling (ROR) [52,56], where the focality of Ae. Statistics and the Provincial Meteorological Center of Villa aegyptiThe wasprediction the Response model Variablewas fitted and usingthe meteorological a Regressive Clara. This step revealed the entire entomological history of variables were the Explanatory Variables. The