mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in subnational development land use/physical planning in the& philippines Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Subnational Development and Land Use/Physical Planning in the Philippines ISBN 978-971-8535-23-3 Copyright 2008 National Economic and Development Authority United Nations Development Programme European Commission Humanitarian Aid All rights reserved. Any part of this book may be used or reproduced provided proper acknowledgement is made. Published by the National Economic and Development Authority, United Nations Development Programme and European Commission Humanitarian Aid For inquiries, please contact: Director Susan Rachel G. Jose Regional Development Coordination Staff National Economic and Development Authority Tel. Nos. (+63-2) 631 3743 / 631 3708 Email: [email protected], [email protected] Cover design and layout by Jet Hermida, creativejet Printed in the Philippines by VJ Graphic Arts, Inc. iv MAINSTREAMING DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN SUBNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND LAND USE/PHYSICAL PLANNING IN THE PHILIPPINES Contents MAINSTREAMING DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN SUBNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND LAND USE/PHYSICAL PLANNING IN THE PHILIPPINES Messages Preface Acknowledgement Acronyms Executive Summary Chapter 1. Introduction 3 A. Policy Context 3 B. Linkage with the 2007 NEDA-ADB Guidelines on Provincial/Local Planning and Expenditure Management (PLPEM) 6 C. Features of the Guidelines 6 1. Rationale 6 2. Risk-based Analysis 7 3. Use of Geographic Information System (GIS) 8 4. Multihazard Coverage 9 5. Focus on the Province 9 6. Scope and Limitation 10 7. Use and Relevance 10 D. DRR-Enhanced PDPFP and RPFP 11 1. Purpose 11 2. Linkages with Other Plans 13 E. Planning Challenges 13 F. Conclusion 14 Chapter 2. Disasters and Development: The Case for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 19 A. Disasters and Development 19 1. Natural Hazard Exposure 19 2. Impact of Disasters 20 3. Disaster and Development Links 21 B. Mainstreaming DRR in Development Planning 23 1. Development Planning as Vehicle for DRR 24 2. Opportunities for Mainstreaming DRR in Subnational Plans 26 C. Summary 27 Chapter 3. Mainstreaming Framework 31 A. Disasters Risk Assessment and Development Planning 31 B. Fundamental Concepts 32 C. Disaster Risk Assessment 34 1. Hazard Characterization and Frequency Analysis 35 2. Consequence Analysis 37 3. Risk Estimation 42 4. Risk Prioritization 45 D. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Assessment Results in Plan Formulation 47 EUROPEAN COMMISSION HUMANITARIAN AID | UNITED NATIONS DeVELOPMENT PROGRAMME 1. Analyzing the Risk Impact to the Land Use and Physical Framework 48 ANNEXES 2. Identifying Development Issues, Goals, Objectives and Targets Based on the Risks 48 3. Identifying DRR Measures 49 Annex 1. Natural Hazards: An Overview 167 E. Secondary Entry Points for Mainstreaming 51 A. F. Geologic Hazards 167 Conclusion 51 1. Earthquakes and Earthquake-induced Hazards 168 2. Volcanic Hazards 179 Chapter 4. Disaster Risk Assessment 55 B. A. Hydrometeorologic Hazards 182 Hazard Characterization and Frequency Analysis 55 1. Storm Surge 184 1. Prepare Hazard Inventory 56 2. 2. Floods and Flashfloods 184 Assign Return Period for Each Hazard Event 61 3. Landslides 187 3. Prepare Summary Frequency Table 70 Annex 2. Probabilistic Treatment of Hazards 191 B. Consequence Analysis 71 A. Concepts of Frequency, Return Period and Probability of Occurrence 191 1. Determine the Potentially Affected Elements 72 1. 2. Frequency Count 192 Compute for the Consequence in Terms of Fatality and Cost of Property Damage 83 2. Frequency Analysis 192 C. Risk Estimation 92 3. 1. Cumulative Frequency 194 Get Data on Return Period from Frequency Analysis in the 94 4. Return Period 195 Hazard Characterization Step B. 2. Using the Probability of Exceedance or Probability of Occurrence in Get Data on Estimated Fatality and Property Damage per Hazard Event Computing for Annual Risk 197 from Consequence Analysis 94 C. Final Note 200 3. Compute for Risk in Terms of Fatality and Property Damage 95 Annex 3. Assigning Return Periods 201 4. Repeat Process for Other Hazards 97 A. Assigning Return Period for Earthquake-related Hazards 201 D. Risk Prioritization 104 1. 1. Determining Magnitude Intervals for HSA, MSA, LSA 204 Determine “Priority Score” for Each Municipality 105 2. Assigning Return Periods: Sample Case 207 2. Assess Vulnerability of Sectors 113 B. E. Estimating Return Periods for Volcanic Hazards 213 vi Summary 117 C. Estimating Return Periods for Hydrometreologic Hazards 214 vii Annex 4. Measuring Direct and Indirect Impact of Natural Disasters in the Philippines 217 Chapter 5. Mainstreaming Risk Assessment Results in the Plan 121 A. Estimating Direct Damage 218 A. Analysis of the Risk Impact to the Land Use and Physical Framework 122 1. B. Built-Up Areas 218 Identifying Development Issues, Goals, Objectives and Targets Based on the Risks 135 2. Production Areas 225 1. Identifying Development Issues and Concerns 135 3. 2. Infrastructures 228 Specifying Disaster Risk Reduction Goals, Objectives and Targets 135 4. Protected Areas 230 C. Identifying Intervention Measures to Respond to Disaster Risks 136 B. D. Estimating Indirect Damage 230 Summary 149 1. Agriculture Sector 230 2. Industry Sector 231 Chapter 6. Mainstreaming DRR in Investment Programming, Budgeting, 3. Project Evaluation and Development and Monitoring and Evaluation 153 Power, Water, Transportation and Communication 231 C. Future Directions for Disaster Damage Data Gathering and Estimation 232 A. Post-Plan Formulation Mainstreaming 153 D. B. Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System 235 Investment Programming 154 E. Recommendations 236 C. Budgeting 155 Annex 5. Deriving Factors for Fatality and Factors for Property Damage 241 1. 20 Percent Local Development Fund 155 A. Factor for Fatality 241 2. Local Taxes 155 1. Earthquake-related Hazards 242 3. Local and National Calamity Funds 155 2. Hazards from Volcanic Eruptions 244 4. Inter-LGU and LGU-NGA Cooperation 156 3. Hydrometeorologic Hazards 246 5. Risk Sharing/Transfer Financing 157 B. Factor for Property Damage 250 6. International Sources 158 1. Earthquake-related Hazards 250 D. Project Evaluation and Development 159 2. Hazards from Volcanic Eruptions 250 E. Project Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation 163 3. Hydrometeorologic Hazards 251 4. Storm Surges 255 Annex 6. GIS-based Disaster Risk Assessment 257 A. Fundamental Concepts 257 1. GIS Dataset 258 2. Software 259 3. EUROPEAN COMMISSION HUMANITARIAN AID | UNITED NATIONS DeVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Methods of Spatial Analysis NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DeVELOPMENT AUT260HORITY B. GIS-based Disaster Risk Assessment 262 Figure A1.2 Distribution of Active Faults and Trenches in the Philippines 169 1. GIS Framework 262 Figure A1.3 Destructive Historical Earthquakes in the Philippines 170 2. Data Requirements for Disaster Risk Assessment 263 Figure A1.4 The 1990 Luzon Earthquake Intensity Map 173 3. GIS Data Standards and Mapping Conventions 271 Figure A1.5 Earthquake-induced Landslide Hazard Map 176 4. Data Sources 272 Figure A1.6 Liquefaction Hazard Map 178 C. Risk Estimation: Worked-out Example in ArcView™ 273 Figure A1.7 Volcanic Hazards 180 1. Assigning Return Periods 274 Figure A1.8 Volcanic Ashfall Hazard Map 183 2. Estimating Risk of Fatality 276 Figure A1.9 Storm Surge Hazard Map 185 3. Estimating Risk of Property Damage 283 Figure A1.10 Flood Hazard Map 186 4. Determining Composite Priority Score per Municipality 294 Figure A1.11 Volume of Rainfall, Southern Leyte (2003) and Northern Quezon Annex 7. Characteristics of Resilience 305 and Aurora (2004) Compared to Worldwide Rainfall Thresholds 188 Annex 8. Selected ODA Disaster Risk Reduction Programs and Policies Figure A1.12 Rain-induced Landslide Hazard Map 189 as of October 2008 313 Figure A2.1 Cumulative Frequency 194 Figure A3.1 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Value for Soft Soil 209 References 325 Figure A3.2 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Value for Medium Soil 210 Figure A3.3 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Value for Rock 211 Participants to Technical Assistance Activities 337 Figure A3.4 Seismic Zones in the Philippines 212 Figure A6.1 Hypothetical Provincial Boundary Map 258 Figure A6.2 Illustration of Overlays of Different Thematic Maps 260 LIST OF BOxes Figure A6.3 GIS Framework for DRA 262 Figure A6.4 Administrative (Municipal) Boundary Map of Surigao del Norte 269 Box 1.1 NEDA-ADB Provincial/Local Planning and Expenditure Management Guidelines 6 Figure A6.5 Population Density Map (Barangay Level) of Surigao del Norte Province 269 Box 3.1 Quantitative and Qualitative Frequency Analysis 37 Figure A6.6 Land Use Map of the Province of Surigao del Norte 270 Box 3.2 Quantitative Calculation of Risk 42 Figure A6.7 Geoprocessing Wizards, Step 2 Dissolve Parameters 294 viii Box 3.3 Qualitative Calculation of Risk and Ranking System of the Federal Figure A6.8 Legend Editor 299 ix Emergency Management Agency of the United States of America 43 Figure A6.9 Risk to Population from Rain-induced Landslides, Surigao del Norte 301 Box 4.1 Estimating Damage from Ground Shaking 90 Figure A6.10 Risk to Population from Rain-induced Landslide Hazards, Surigao del Norte 301 Box A5.1 Return Period and Factors for Fatality and Damage: Floods 247 Figure A6.11 Risk of Property Damage from Rain-induced Landslides, Surigao del Norte 302 Figure A6.12 Risk of Property Damage by Municipality from Rain-induced Landslides, Surigao del Norte 302 Figure A6.13 Composite Priority Map for Rain-induced Landslide,