Quarterly Economy Update March 2021 Welfare and work Residents claiming unemployment benefits in Manchester increased by 92% since March – compared to 102% nationally Currently 34,305 resident claimants – representing 8.8% of the total working age population 35,000 34,255 34,775 34,645 34,510 34,335 34,305 33,745 33,740 33,915 33,000 31,000 28,665 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 Claimant Count Claimant 21,000 19,000 17,740 17,410 17,000 16,390 16,325 16,390 15,000 November December January February March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August September October November December January 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Source: ONS Manchester has the second highest unemployment rate in GM Claimant count unemployment rate highest in Oldham in January (9.4%) – lowest in Trafford (5.1%) 10.0% 9.4% 9.0% 8.8% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 7.8% 8.0% 7.6% 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.1% 5.0% 4.0% % of working age population % of working age 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% UK North West GM Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan March May August Jan-21 Total UC claimants in Manchester grown by 85% since March 2020 In work claimants (particularly those aged under 30) accounting for an increasing proportion of UC claimants – linked to growing numbers of residents in low paid / insecure work 80,000 70,000 60,000 48,889 50,000 48,173 47,492 47,602 47,262 46,723 46,519 45,220 40,000 37,429 30,000 Universal Credit Claimants Credit Universal 28,756 27,813 26,427 20,000 28,989 28,306 26,987 26,113 24,973 10,000 24,206 22,966 22,016 18,995 13,366 12,979 12,513 - Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 In Work Claimants Out Work Claimants Source: DWP Stat Xplore Growing concentrations of UC claimants in East Manchester since March 2020 44% of new UC claimants since March are in work Gorton & Abbey Hey Miles Platting & Newton Heath Longsight Harpurhey Woodhouse Park Moss Side Clayton & Openshaw Ardwick Burnage Charlestown Northenden Whalley Range Higher Blackley Crumpsall Levenshulme Cheetham Hulme Moston Baguley Fallowfield Old Moat Rusholme Brooklands Withington Chorlton Park Piccadilly Deansgate Ancoats & Beswick Didsbury West Sharston Didsbury East Chorlton 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Change in UC Claimants – March - December 2020 In Work Out of Work c.38,800 furloughed resident jobs in Manchester (January 2021) – 16% of eligible jobs Increase in employees furloughed in November & January reflects the introduction of subsequent national lockdowns 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Total Employees Furloughed Employees Total 2,000 0 Manchester Central Blackley and Broughton* Wythenshawe and Sale East* Manchester Gorton Manchester Withington Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 (p) July 2020 Aug 2020 Sept 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 (p) Manchester 45,900 33,900 26,800 23,000 35,500 34,400 38,800 Greater Manchester 213,300 157,100 121,900 103,900 160,700 158,600 184,600 England 4,234,200 3,092,700 2,328,900 1,897,400 3,209,500 3,186,200 3,769,700 *Parts of Blackley & Broughton and Wythenshawe & Sale East are outside the Manchester boundary Manchester job postings declined in March in response to COVID but seem less sensitive to further lockdowns Most live job ads are for IT Jobs and Sales Jobs and the top companies hiring are The Hut Group, AECOM and Spires Online Tutoring 1800 COVID-19 1st Lockdown COVID-19 2nd Lockdown COVID-19 3rd Lockdown 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 Number of job vacancies advertised during the week theduring advertised vacancies ofjobNumber 200 0 Pressional Occupations Associate Pressional And Technical Occupations Managers, Directors And Senior ficials Administrative And Secretarial Occupations Sales And Customer Service Occupations Other Source: Burning Glass Technologies - Labour Insights, produced by GMCA Housing benefit (UC & HB) claimants increased by c.20% since March 2020 Majority of growth (c.8,700 claimants) from households living in the private rented sector (PRS) 80,000 COVID-19 - 1st Lockdown 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Total Claimants (UC (UC & HB) Claimants Total 20,000 10,000 - Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Social Rented Claimants Private Rented Claimants Source: DWP Number of claimants in the PRS growing in both high & low value neighbourhoods But largest concentrations remain in North & East Manchester Piccadilly Whalley Range Hulme Moss Side Gorton & Abbey Hey Levenshulme Clayton & Openshaw Deansgate Withington Longsight Harpurhey Ardwick Miles Platting… Old Moat Fallowfield Crumpsall Burnage Cheetham Chorlton Park Ancoats & Beswick Moston Charlestown Rusholme Northenden Higher Blackley Didsbury West Chorlton Woodhouse Park Didsbury East Baguley Brooklands Sharston 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Change in LHA Claimants in PRS – Mar-Nov 2020 Source: DWP Businesses & Business Rates Total Business Rates charges have fallen from £378m to £226m (c.40%) since April 2020 Biggest drop off in charges from retail, services & food sector – linked to Covid-19 extended retail relief £400,000,000 £350,000,000 £300,000,000 £250,000,000 £200,000,000 £150,000,000 Total Business Rates Charges Business Rates Total £100,000,000 £50,000,000 £- Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Office Health & Public Services Industrial Retail, Services & Food Other Source: MCC Revenues & Benefits Business deaths rising – likely just an administrative lag as Companies House suspended activity during the first lockdown Hard impact of COVID-19 on businesses not expected to show in the Experian data until later in the year 1200 1000 Automatic strike-off and company obligations were suspended from April to 800 June during lockdown by Companies House 600 400 200 0 Number of business deaths Number of limited births Number of non-limited births Source: Experian Recent lockdowns not impacting footfall to the same extent – district centres more resilient Location of city centre cameras only capturing certain types of city centre activity (predominantly retail trips) 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% -60.00% Weekly Footfall (Change V 2019)(ChangeV Footfall Weekly -70.00% -80.00% -90.00% -100.00% City Centre* District Centres** *City Centre data on Market Street, Exchange Square, St Ann's Square and King Street **District Centre data in Cheetham Hill, Chorlton, Fallowfield, Gorton, Harpurhey, Levenshulme, Northenden, Rusholme, Blackley & Withington Source: Springboard Decreased sales & restrictions on business travel the main impacts of COVID-19 reported by businesses in Manchester 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Manchester GM Source: Growth Company Business Survey (29/01/2021 - 15/02/2021) Total number of export documents in January 2021 is down -35% compared to last February This is likely to be due to disruption caused since the Brexit transition period ended on 31st December 2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Source: GM Chamber of Commerce Commercial Property Planning activity not impacted by subsequent lockdowns to the same extent as in March 2020 Recent applications include the redevelopment of the Kendals (c.66,800m²) & the 1st phase of the Collyhurst Village regeneration (244 homes) 80 Covid-19 1st Lockdown Covid-19 2nd Lockdown Covid-19 3rd Lockdown 70 60 50 40 30 Planning Apps Submitted AppsPlanning 20 10 - 06-Jan 06-Feb 06-Mar 06-Apr 06-May 06-Jun 06-Jul 06-Aug 06-Sep 06-Oct 06-Nov 06-Dec 06-Jan 06-Feb City Centre Manchester (excl. City Centre) Source: MCC Planning, Building Control & Licensing Over 623,782m² of commercial space on site in the city (not including hotels & car parks) 215,227m² of this is office space – 93% of which is being developed in the city centre 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 site (m²) site - 100,000 80,000 Total Floorspace on Floorspace Total 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 City Centre Manchester (Excl. City Centre) B1: Office D1: Public Services A: Retail Sui Generis D2: Leisure B2-8: Industrial Manchester city centre office market significantly buoyed by Q4 deals – take up only 7% below this time last year £325m of deals recorded in the city’s office market last year, more than any other major UK city outside London 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 up (sq. ft.)up - 250000 200000 City centre office take office City centre 150000 100000 50000 0 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 *City centre includes parts of central Salford Manchester Birmingham Bristol Leeds Liverpool Source: Avision Young – The Big Nine Manchester city centre headline rents have also increased to £38.50 per sq.