Horden Peterlee Station Full Business Case: December 2016 Durham County Council Contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Purpose of the Document ...................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 5 1.2.1 Current Constraints ....................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.2 Proposed Scheme ........................................................................................................................ 5 1.3 Strategic Need ....................................................................................................................................... 6 1.4 Benefits .................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.5 Timescale for Delivery ........................................................................................................................... 8 1.6 Structure of the Document ..................................................................................................................... 8 2 Strategic Case ............................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Background to the Scheme ................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.1 Location and Context .................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.2 Scheme History ........................................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Existing Situation ................................................................................................................................. 12 2.3.1 Existing Transport Network and Public Transport Services ........................................................ 12 2.3.2 Existing Rail Provision ................................................................................................................ 13 2.3.3 Demand & Catchment ................................................................................................................. 13 2.3.4 Local Area ................................................................................................................................... 15 2.4 Identified Problems and Issues ............................................................................................................ 17 2.5 Case for Change ................................................................................................................................. 19 2.5.1 Comparable Schemes ................................................................................................................ 19 2.5.2 Housing Growth .......................................................................................................................... 20 2.5.3 Employment Growth ................................................................................................................... 21 2.5.4 Additional Factors ....................................................................................................................... 21 2.6 Strategic Fit ......................................................................................................................................... 22 2.6.1 National Fit .................................................................................................................................. 22 2.6.2 Regional Fit ................................................................................................................................. 23 2.6.3 Local Fit ...................................................................................................................................... 25 2.7 Aims and SMART objectives ............................................................................................................... 27 2.8 Scope .................................................................................................................................................. 28 2.9 Scheme Benefits ................................................................................................................................. 29 2.10 Synergy with other Schemes ............................................................................................................... 29 2.11 Political Support for the Scheme ......................................................................................................... 30 2.12 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 30 3 Economic Case ........................................................................................................................... 32 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 32 3.2 Critical Success Factors ...................................................................................................................... 32 3.3 Options Appraisal ................................................................................................................................ 33 1 3.3.1 Longlisted Options ...................................................................................................................... 34 3.3.2 Shortlisted Options ...................................................................................................................... 35 3.3.3 Preferred Way Forward ............................................................................................................... 35 3.4 Demand Forecasting ........................................................................................................................... 37 3.4.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 37 3.4.2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 38 3.4.3 Existing Demand ......................................................................................................................... 38 3.4.4 Forecasting Methodology ............................................................................................................ 41 3.4.5 Trip Rate Model .......................................................................................................................... 41 3.4.6 Gravity Model .............................................................................................................................. 44 3.4.7 Full Tickets .................................................................................................................................. 45 3.4.8 Reduced Price Tickets ................................................................................................................ 46 3.4.9 Season Tickets ........................................................................................................................... 48 3.4.10 Forecast Demand ....................................................................................................................... 49 3.4.11 Comparison with Trip Rate Model ............................................................................................... 51 3.4.12 Abstraction .................................................................................................................................. 51 3.4.13 Impact on Through Travellers ..................................................................................................... 52 3.4.14 Demand and Revenue Forecasts ............................................................................................... 53 3.5 Appraisal Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 54 3.5.1 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 55 3.5.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 56 3.6 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits ........................................................................................... 56 3.6.1 Benefits and Disbenefits ............................................................................................................. 57 3.6.2 Costs ........................................................................................................................................... 67 3.6.3 Updated Values of Time ............................................................................................................