REPORT PREPARED WITHIN FRAMEWORK OF THE PROJECT EXPANSION OF THE LIBRARY OF COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION UNIT, CO-FUNDED BY EUROPEAN REFUGEE FUND REVOLUTIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND HUMANITARIAN ASPECTS RADOSŁAW BANIA, MARTA WOŹNIAK, KRZYSZTOF ZDULSKI OCTOBER 2011 COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION UNIT OFFICE FOR FOREIGNERS, POLAND DECEMBER 2011 EUROPEJSKI FUNDUSZ NA RZECZ UCHODŹCÓW REPORT PREPARED WITHIN FRAMEWORK OF THE PROJECT EXPANSION OF THE LIBRARY OF COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION UNIT, CO-FUNDED BY EUROPEAN REFUGEE FUND REVOLUTIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND HUMANITARIAN ASPECTS RADOSŁAW BANIA, MARTA WOŹNIAK, KRZYSZTOF ZDULSKI COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION UNIT OFFICE FOR FOREIGNERS, POLAND OCTOBER 2011 EUROPEAN REFUGEE FUND Revolutions in the Arab World – Political, Social and Humanitarian Aspects Country of Origin Information Unit, Office for Foreigners, 2011 Disclaimer The report at hand is a public document. It has been prepared within the framework of the project “Expansion of the library of Country of Origin Information Unit” no 1/7/2009/EFU, co- funded by the European Refugee Fund. Within the framework of the above mentioned project, COI Unit of the Office for Foreigners commissions reports made by external experts, which present detailed analysis of problems/subjects encountered during refugee/asylum procedures. Information included in these reports originates mainly from publicly available sources, such as monographs published by international, national or non-governmental organizations, press articles and/or different types of Internet materials. In some cases information is based also on experts’ research fieldworks. All the information provided in the report has been researched and evaluated with utmost care. However, outdated, incomplete or inaccurate information cannot be completely ruled out. Therefore the report cannot be treated as a sole and indisputable source of information, on the basis which decisions are taken concerning granting or refusing refugee status/asylum or other forms of international protection. The sole responsibility for the contents of the report lies on its authors. European Commission does not bear responsibility for the manner in which information is being publicized. The report at hand is not and should not be seen as a political statement on the part of its authors or Polish authorities. The sole responsibility for the contents of the report lies on its authors. European Commission does not take responsibility for the way available information was used in the report. PHOTOS ON THE COVER COME FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE SOURCES (TO CREATIVE COMMONS ATTRIBUTION-SHARE ALIKE 2.0 GENERIC) A PHOTO ON THE TITLE PAGE SHOWS A CAMP FOR LIBYAN REFUGEES IN CHOUCHA, TUNISIA; PHOTO BY GRZEGORZ SZYMANIK PHOTOS USED IN THE REPORT WERE TAKEN BY: MARTA WOŹNIAK, RADOSŁAW BANIA, EWA CYLWIK, AGATA GRZYBOWSKA, GRZEGORZ SZYMANIK, JUSTYNA JAKUBASZEK AND MILENA MOŹDZIERZ REPORT DESIGN BY: MAGDALENA SZPINDLER 2 Revolutions in the Arab World – Political, Social and Humanitarian Aspects Country of Origin Information Unit, Office for Foreigners, 2011 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 5 SOCIO-POLITICAL CONDITIONS OF THE REVOLUTIONS IN THE ARAB STATES ............................................ 7 TUNISIA .............................................................................................................................................................. 15 EGYPT ................................................................................................................................................................. 25 SYRIA .................................................................................................................................................................. 33 YEMEN ................................................................................................................................................................ 45 LIBYA .................................................................................................................................................................. 61 BAHRAIN ............................................................................................................................................................ 71 THE SITUATION IN THE ARAB MONARCHIES ................................................................................................. 83 MOROCCO .............................................................................................................................................................. 83 JORDAN ................................................................................................................................................................. 85 MONARCHIES OF THE PERSIAN GULF ....................................................................................................................... 86 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................... 90 PHOTOGRAPHS .................................................................................................................................................. 97 3 Revolutions in the Arab World – Political, Social and Humanitarian Aspects Country of Origin Information Unit, Office for Foreigners, 2011 MARRAKESH, MOROCCO, PHOTO BY EWA CYLWIK RABAT, MOROCCO, PHOTO BY GRZEGORZ SZYMANIK 4 Revolutions in the Arab World – Political, Social and Humanitarian Aspects Country of Origin Information Unit, Office for Foreigners, 2011 INTRODUCTION The events that we have been observing in the Arab world throughout the year 2011 should be regarded as unprecedented in the modern history of the region. The revolutionary ferment, initiated by the overthrow of the Tunisian President Zine al- Abidin Ben Ali, spread to other countries in the region. None of the Arab states have been bypassed by these events, although their scale and scope have been different in character and nature, depending on the local political, social and cultural conditions. Some of the protests against the current political order were extremely dynamic in nature and have led to a crisis and a rapid removal of the political leaders (Tunisia, Egypt), others have turned into a long-term internal crisis, reaching the level of armed clashes (Libya, Syria, Yemen). In other countries of the region, the anti-government protests were of ephemeral or episodic nature, without causing significant changes in the functioning of the system of governance. Nevertheless, the image of the region with stable non-democratic regimes has radically changed. The exceptionality of the situation is highlighted by the fact that for the first time in modern history of the Arab world we are witnessing a genuinely mass, grassroots protests, directed against the hitherto existing political order. The scale and the scope of the political disorder encourage to ask numerous questions that will be the purpose of this report. The authors of this report will seek to present a synthesis of the events that have taken place in 2011 in the Arab states of the Middle East and North Africa. The objective of this report is to present the situation in the Middle East region, which is the result of the revolution in the Arab countries. The events taking place in the countries in which major social protests have taken place will be thoroughly analyzed. The main analytical objective of this report will be to determine the causes – both general and specific – of the revolutionary protests relating to a particular country, and subsequently to describe the development and the consequences of these protests in terms of political, social and humanitarian dimensions. An important element of every analysis will also be to present international conditions, including the reaction of the external powers that have their economic, strategic and military interests located in the Middle East region. The authors of this report will seek primarily to determine the causes and the conditions of the current events, to present the development of the events and to identify the possible consequences for the future of the states and for the entire region. The structure of the report reflects the areas of concern. In the first place, the outline of the political, economic and social situation of the region will be presented. The subsequent parts of the report will include the analysis of the events taking place in 5 Revolutions in the Arab World – Political, Social and Humanitarian Aspects Country of Origin Information Unit, Office for Foreigners, 2011 individual Arab countries, in which the largest anti-government protests took place and where they have caused major transformation in the functioning of the political system. The last part of the report will include the summary of the analyzed problems. The consequences of the current events will be considered at three levels: internal – regarding individual countries in the region, regional – regarding the balance of power between the countries of the region, and internationally – regarding the reaction of the external players towards the change of the political situation in the region. 6 Revolutions in the Arab World – Political, Social and Humanitarian Aspects Country of Origin Information Unit, Office for Foreigners, 2011 SOCIO-POLITICAL