CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 (To comment: [email protected] For Updates see CSIS.ORG, “Military Balance”) Iraqi War Fighting Capabilities: A Dynamic Net Assessment Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair for Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies Revised July 21, 2002 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Iraq: A Dynamic Net Assessment 7/22/02 Page ii Introduction This document is an expanded version of a report originally prepared for a conference at the Naval War College in July 2002. The author would like to thank his colleagues at that conference for many suggestions and corrections. He would also like to thank the Smith-Richardson Foundation for some of the funding for the project. Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Iraq: A Dynamic Net Assessment 7/22/02 Page iii Table of Contents INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................................................ 1 IRAQ’S CURRENT MILITARY FORCES....................................................................................................................................... 1 The Iraqi Army and Key Security Elements......................................................................................................................1 The Deployment of Army and Security Elements .............................................................................................................. 2 The Iraqi Air Force...............................................................................................................................................................5 The Iraqi Navy.......................................................................................................................................................................6 Iraqi Operational Capabilities...........................................................................................................................................7 The Problem of Sanctions and Equipment Modernization............................................................................................7 THE PROBLEM OF DYNAMIC NET ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................... 8 Uncertainties and Intangibles.............................................................................................................................................9 Defining the Key Contingencies.......................................................................................................................................11 IRAQ FACES CONTINUED CONTAINMENT WITHOUT EFFECTIVE INSPECTION.................................................................. 12 IRAQ FACES CONTINUED CONTAINMENT WITH “EFFECTIVE” INSPECTION. .................................................................... 13 THE CONTINUING LOW-LEVEL AIR WAR OVER THE “NO FLY ZONES”........................................................................... 15 IRAQ BECOMES MORE CONFIDENT OVER TIME................................................................................................................... 16 UNFORESEEN EVENTS THRUST IRAQ INTO ANOTHER CONFRONTATION WITH THE KURDS IN THE NORTH AND/OR THE SHI’ITES IN THE SOUTH..................................................................................................................................................... 16 Kurdish Contingencies.......................................................................................................................................................16 Shi’ite Contingencies..........................................................................................................................................................17 Reaction to a US-led Coalition.........................................................................................................................................18 IRAQ VERSUS IRAN.................................................................................................................................................................... 19 IRAQ RISKS A DESPERATE ATTACK ON KUWAIT................................................................................................................. 21 Iraq’s Offensive Capabilities in Other Contingencies..................................................................................................24 IRAQ AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION...................................................................................................................... 25 Iraqi Missile Developments and Possible Capabilities................................................................................................26 Iraqi CBRN Developments and Possible Capabilities..................................................................................................29 Current Warfighting Capability A“Guesstimate” and Possible US Response.......................................................33 A Current Warfighting Capability “Guesstimate:” Israeli Response .......................................................................37 A Current Warfighting Capability “Guesstimate:” Turkish and Southern Gulf Response....................................40 Future Risks and Breakout Problems..............................................................................................................................40 IRAQ CARRIES OUT MAJOR ATTACKS AGAINST THE US, BRITAIN, ISRAEL, OR A GULF STATE USING COVERT ACTION OR A TERRORIST/EXTREMIST PROXY...................................................................................................................... 41 IRAQ VERSUS THE UNITED STATES AND A US-LED COALITION......................................................................................... 43 US Forces and Allied Capabilities...................................................................................................................................44 The Total Pool of US Forces.............................................................................................................................................44 The Uncertain Role of Allied and Neighboring States..................................................................................................45 Current US Land Warfare Capabilities in the Gulf......................................................................................................48 Current US Air and Missile Warfare Capabilities in the Gulf....................................................................................51 Table One ............................................................................................................................................... 52 US Airpower in Recent Regional Conflicts ........................................................................................... 52 COVERT OVERTHROW .............................................................................................................................................................. 55 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Iraq: A Dynamic Net Assessment 7/22/02 Page iv OPPOSITION GROUND FORCES AND US AIRPOWER: “AFGHAN OPTION”......................................................................... 57 The Use of Opposition Ground Forces ...........................................................................................................................57 The Limits to the Afghan Lesson.......................................................................................................................................58 How Much US Airpower is Enough? The Iraqi SEAD Challenge..............................................................................59 How Much US Support is Enough? The Strengths of US Strike/Attack Air and Missile Power...........................60 How Much US Support is Enough? The Limits to US Strike/Attack Air and Missile Power and Key Uncertainties Affecting the Iraqi Response....................................................................................................................61 The High Cost of Failure...................................................................................................................................................63 “ATTACK FROM THE NORTH OPTION”................................................................................................................................... 64 US OPERATIONS IN A MAJOR US-LED COALITION MILITARY EFFORT ............................................................................ 65 A “Coalition Heavy” Strategy..........................................................................................................................................65 A “Coalition Light” Strategy............................................................................................................................................67 Amphibious and Vertical Envelopment Operations......................................................................................................68 The Value of Strong Coalition Military Support............................................................................................................69 How Much US Force is Enough?.....................................................................................................................................69