House At-A-Glance June 6, 2018 Summary: 55 This list of potential candidates for the 2018 elections is highly speculative and 238 Republicans contains names that have been mentioned as either publicly or privately consid- 44+ + ering candidacies, or worthy of consideration as candidates or recruiting pros- 193 Democrats pects by the parties or interest groups. The numerical key indicating our assess- 3 ment of each person’s likelihood of running is obviously important, given the 4 Vacancies “long and dirty” nature of this list, which will be updated each week. (1) Announced candidacy or certain to run; (2) Likely to run; (3) Maybe; (4) Men- tioned but unlikely DIST. DESCIPTION CANDIDATES PVI RATING B Alabama Filing Deadline: February 9, 2018 | Primary: June 5, 2018 | Runoff: July 17, 2018 AL-01 Southwest corner: Mobile Bradley Byrne (R) R+15 Solid R REPUBLICANS: Robert Kennedy Jr., ‘17 AL-Gov cand. (1) AL-02 Southeast corner: Wiregrass, part of Montgomery Martha Roby (R) R+16 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Tabitha Isner, pastor/business analyst (1) REPUBLICANS: Bobby Bright, fmr. Dem Rep. (1) AL-03 East: Anniston, Auburn Mike Rogers (R) R+16 Solid R REPUBLICANS: Mallory Hagan, TV anchor (1) AL-04 North central: Gadsden, Jasper Robert Aderholt (R) R+30 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Lee Auman, minister (1) AL-05 Northern border: Huntsville Mo Brooks (R) R+18 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Peter Joffrion, frmr. Huntsville city atty. (1) AL-06 Central: Birmingham suburbs Gary Palmer (R) R+26 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Danner Kline, beer advocate (1) AL-07 West: parts of Birmingham, Montgomery Terri Sewell (D) D+20 Solid D A Alaska Filing Deadline: June 1, 2018 | Primary: August 21, 2018 AK-AL Entire State Don Young (R) R+9 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Alyse Galvin, education advocate (1) D Arizona Filing Deadline: May 30, 2018 | Primary: August 28, 2018 AZ-01 Northeast: Flagstaff, Navajo Nation, Casa Grande Tom O’Halleran (D) R+2 Lean D REPUBLICANS: Steve Smith, st. Sen. (1) Kevin Cavanaugh, Pinal Co. Deputy Sheriff (1) AZ-02 Southeast: Tucson, Cochise County OPEN (McSally-R) R+1 Lean D DEMOCRATS: Matt Heinz, physician/’16 nominee (1) Billy Kovacs, hotel manager (1) Ann Kirkpatrick, fRmr. AZ-01 Rep. (1) Mary Matiella, fmr. Asst. Army Secretary (1) Bruce Wheeler, frmr. st. Rep. (1) REPUBLICANS: Lea Marquez-Peterson, Tucson Hispanic Chamber Pres. (1) AZ-03 Southwest: Tucson, Yuma, Nogales Raul Grijalva (D) D+13 Solid D AZ-04 Northwest: Prescott, Lake Havasu City, Apache Jct. Paul Gosar (R) R+21 Solid R AZ-05 Phoenix “East Valley:” Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert Andy Biggs (R) R+15 Solid R AZ-06 North Phoenix: Paradise Valley, Cave Creek David Schweikert (R) R+9 Likely R DEMOCRATS: Anita Malik, marketing businesswoman (1) Garrick McFadden, attorney (1) Heather Ross, nurse practitioner (1) AZ-07 South central and west Phoenix Ruben Gallego (D) D+23 Solid D DEMOCRATS: Catherine Miranda, state sen. (1) AZ-08 Phoenix ”West Valley:” Sun City, Peoria Debbie Lesko R+13 Solid R AZ-09 East Phoenix: Tempe, parts of Scottsdale OPEN (Sinema-D) D+4 Likely D DEMOCRATS: Greg Stanton, Phoenix Mayor (1) REPUBLICANS: Steve Ferrara, retired Navy captain (1) C Arkansas Filing Deadline: March 1, 2018 | Primary: May 22, 2018 | Run Off: June 19, 2018 AR-01 East and northeast corner: Jonesboro Rick Crawford (R) R+17 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Chintan Desai, educator (1) AR-02 Central: Little Rock French Hill (R) R+7 Lean R DEMOCRATS: Clarke Tucker, st. Rep. (1) AR-03 Northwest corner: Fort Smith, Fayetteville Steve Womack (R) R+19 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Joshua Mahony, nonprofit exec. (1) AR-04 South and southwest: Pine Bluff, Hot Springs Bruce Westerman (R) R+17 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Hayden Shamel, teacher (1) E California Filing Deadline: March 9, 2018 | Primary: June 5, 2018 CA-01 Northeast: Chico, Redding Doug La Malfa (R) R+11 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Audrey Denney, educator/farmer (1) CA-02 Northwest coast: Marin County, Mendocino Jared Huffman (D) D+22 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Dale Mensing, cashier (1) CA-03 North central: Fairfield, Davis, Yuba City John Garamendi (D) D+5 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Charlie Schaupp, frmr. marine (1) CA-04 East central: Roseville, Lake Tahoe, Yosemite Tom McClintock (R) R+10 Likely R DEMOCRATS: Jess Morse, fmr. adviser to U.S. Pacific Command (1) CA-05* North Bay: Santa Rosa, Napa, Vallejo Mike Thompson (D) D+21 Solid D INDEPENDENTS: Nils Palsson, teacher (1) Anthony Mills, mariner (1) CA-06 North central: Sacramento Doris Matsui (D) D+21 Solid D DEMOCRATS: Jrmar Jefferson (1) CA-07 North central: Sacramento suburbs Ami Bera (D) D+3 Likely D REPUBLICANS: Andrew Grant, Marine veteran (1) CA-08* Eastern High Desert: Victorville, Yucaipa Paul Cook (R) R+9 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Marjorie Doyle, nurse (1) REPUBLICANS: Tim Donnelly, bman./author (1) CA-09 Central Valley: Stockton, San Joaquin Delta Jerry McNerney (D) D+8 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Marla Livengood, agriculture policy advisor (1) CA-10* Central Valley: Modesto, Tracy Jeff Denham (R) EVEN Toss Up DEMOCRATS: Josh Harder, venture capital executive (1) REPUBLICANS: Ted Howze, veterinarian (1) CA-11 East Bay: Richmond, Concord Mark DeSaulnier (D) D+21 Solid D REPUBLICANS: John Fitzgerald, bman (1) CA-12 Bay Area: most of San Francisco Nancy Pelosi (D) D+37 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Lisa Remmer, educator (1) CA-13 East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley Barbara Lee (D) D+40 Solid D CA-14 Bay Area: most of San Mateo County Jackie Speier (D) D+27 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Cristina Osmena, energy exec. (1) CA-15 East Bay: Hayward, Livermore Eric Swalwell (D) D+20 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Rudy Peters, bman. (1) CA-16 Central Valley: Fresno, Merced Jim Costa (D) D+9 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Elizabeth Heng, small business owner (1) CA-17 Southeast Bay: Fremont, Santa Clara, Milpitas Ro Khanna (D) D+25 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Ron Cohen, accountant (1) CA-18 Bay Area: Palo Alto, Silicon Valley Anna Eshoo (D) D+23 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Christine Russell, tech exec. (1) CA-19 Southern Bay Area: most of San Jose Zoe Lofgren (D) D+24 Solid D CA-20 Central coast: Monterey, Santa Cruz Jimmy Panetta (D) D+23 Solid D INDEPENDENTS: Ronald Kabat, accountant (1) CA-21 Central Valley: Hanford, parts of Bakersfield David Valadao (R) D+5 Likely R DEMOCRATS: T.J. Cox, investor/engineer (1) CA-22 Central Valley: Tulare, Visalia, Clovis Devin Nunes (R) R+8 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Andrew Janz, prosecutor (1) CA-23* Southern Central Valley: Bakersfield Kevin McCarthy (R) R+14 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Tatiana Matta, governing board member (1) Wendy Reed, community advocate (1) CA-24 Central coast: Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo Salud Carbajal (D) D+7 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Justin Fareed, ‘16 nominee (1) CA-25* Northern LA County: Santa Clarita, Palmdale Steve Knight (R) EVEN Toss Up DEMOCRATS: Bryan Caforio, attorney/’16 nominee (1) Katie Hill, nurse/non-profit executive (1) CA-26* Gold Coast: Oxnard, Ventura Julia Brownley (D) D+7 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Jeffrey Burum, accountant (1) Antonio Sabato, Jr., actor (1) CA-27 San Gabriel Foothills: Pasadena, Alhambra Judy Chu (D) D+16 Solid D DEMOCRATS: Bryant Witt, railroad supervisor (1) CA-28 Northern LA suburbs: Glendale, Burbank Adam Schiff (D) D+23 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Johnny Nalbandian, food industry bman. (1) CA-29 North central San Fernando Valley Tony Cardenas (D) D+29 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Benito Bernal, transportation supervisor(1) CA-30 Southern San Fernando Valley: Sherman Oaks Brad Sherman (D) D+18 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Mark Reed, realtor (1) CA-31 Inland Empire: San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga Pete Aguilar (D) D+8 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Sean Flynn, economist (1) CA-32 San Gabriel Valley: West Covina, El Monte Grace Napolitano (D) D+17 Solid D CA-33 Coastal LA County: Beverly Hills, Santa Monica Ted Lieu (D) D+16 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Kenneth Wright, doctor/professor (1) CA-34 Central Los Angeles: Downtown, Chinatown Jimmy Gomez (D) D+35 Solid D INDEPENDENTS: Kenneth Mejia, accountant (G)(1) CA-35 Inland Empire: Ontario, Pomona, Fontana Norma Torres (D) D+19 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Christian Valiente, bman. (1) CA-36 Eastern Riverside County: Palm Springs Raul Ruiz (D) D+2 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Kimberlin Brown Pelzer, fmr. soap opera actor (1) CA-37 West Los Angeles: Culver City, Crenshaw Karen Bass (D) D+37 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Ron Bassilian, (1) CA-38 Eastern LA suburbs: Norwalk, Whittier Linda Sanchez (D) D+17 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Ryan Downing, taxpayer advocate (1) CA-39 Northern Orange County: Fullerton, Yorba Linda OPEN (Royce-R) EVEN Toss Up DEMOCRATS: Gil Cisneros, retired Navy officer/philanthropist (1) REPUBLICANS: Young Kim, frmr. Assemblywoman/Royce staffer (1) CA-40 Central LA County: East Los Angeles, Downey Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) D+33 Solid D INDEPENDENTS: Rodolfo Cortes Barragan, (G)(1) CA-41 Inland Empire: Riverside, Moreno Valley, Perris Mark Takano (D) D+12 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Aja Smith, (1) CA-42 Inland Empire: Murrieta, Corona Ken Calvert (R) R+9 Solid R DEMOCRATS: Julia Peacock, teacher (1) CA-43 South Los Angeles: Inglewood, Hawthorne Maxine Waters (D) D+29 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Omar Navarro, small business owner (1) CA-44 South LA County: Compton, Carson, San Pedro Nanette Barragan (D) D+35 Solid D DEMOCRATS: Aja Brown, (1) CA-45 Inland Orange County: Irvine, Mission Viejo Mimi Walters (R) R+3 Lean R DEMOCRATS: Katie Porter, law professor (1) CA-46 Central Orange County: Santa Ana, Anaheim Lou Correa (D) D+15 Solid D REPUBLICANS: Russell Lambert, businessman (1) CA-47 Long Beach and parts of Orange County Alan Lowenthal (D) D+13 Solid D REPUBLICANS: John Briscoe, school board member (1) CA-48* Coastal Orange County: Huntington Beach Dana Rohrabacher (R) R+4 Toss Up DEMOCRATS: Hans Keirstead, biomedical researcher (1) Harley Rouda, real estate businessman (1) REPUBLICANS: Scott Baugh, frmr.