DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA TRANSIT ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS Final Report October, 2005 Prepared by DMJM Harris Planning TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................1-1 1.1 The Purpose of the DC Alternatives Analysis...............................................................1-2 1.2 Project Goals and Objectives .......................................................................... 1-2 1.2.1 Identifying the Best Performing Options...........................................................1-2 1.3 Creating a Phased System Plan of Improvements........................................... 1-3 1.4 Identifying Costs and a Finance Plan .............................................................. 1-4 1.5 Relationship to Previous Studies..................................................................... 1-4 2.0 TRANSIT NEEDS ASSESSMENT............................................................................................2-1 2.1 Needs Assessment ......................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Issue: Population and Employment Growth .................................................... 2-2 2.2.1 Population.......................................................................................................2-2 2.2.2 Employment....................................................................................................2-4 2.3 Issue: Provide Enhanced Mobility for District Residents.................................. 2-7 2.3.1 Long Travel Times ..........................................................................................2-7 2.3.2 Reliability of Service......................................................................................2-10 2.3.3 Access to Premium Transit............................................................................ 2-11 2.4 Issue: Support Continued Economic Growth................................................. 2-13 2.4.1 DC Planning Initiatives..................................................................................2-13 2.4.2 Developer Participation .................................................................................2-15 2.5 Issue: Provide Core Capacity Relief for Metrorail.......................................... 2-16 2.5.1 Metrorail Congestion..................................................................................... 2-16 2.5.2 Metrobus Congestion....................................................................................2-17 2.6 Identification of Priority Corridors for Premium Transit ................................... 2-20 3.0 ALTERNATIVES DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION............................................................3-1 3.1 Study Process................................................................................................. 3-1 3.1.1 Needs Assessment .........................................................................................3-2 3.1.2 Study Area......................................................................................................3-2 3.1.3 Evaluation Framework.....................................................................................3-3 3.1.4 Screen 1 Evaluation........................................................................................3-3 3.1.5 Definition of Alternatives..................................................................................3-3 3.1.6 Screen 2 Evaluation........................................................................................3-3 3.1.7 Screen 3 Evaluation........................................................................................3-5 3.2 Project Participants and Public Involvement .................................................... 3-5 3.2.1 Study Participants...........................................................................................3-5 3.2.2 Public Involvement Phase I: Determining Needs..............................................3-5 3.2.3 Public Involvement Phase II: Determining Opportunities, Challenges, and Benefits ..........................................................................................................3-6 3.3 Screen 1 Evaluation: Identifying the Transit Modes to Be Considered.............. 3-8 3.3.1 Screen 1A Results - Mode Identification ..........................................................3-8 3.3.2 Screen 1B Results - Mode Screening..............................................................3-9 3.3.3 Screen 1 Recommendations .........................................................................3-10 3.4 Screen 2 Evaluation: Identifying the Best Corridors for Premium Transit Investment.................................................................................................... 3-11 3.4.1 Screen 2 Evaluation Framework....................................................................3-12 3.4.2 Summary of Screen 2 Results ± Performance of Corridors by Project Goals.. 3-13 3.4.3 Recommended Corridors for Potential Premium Transit Service Improvement................................................................................................. 3-16 3.4.4 Recommended Corridors for Local Bus Service Enhancement ...................... 3-17 3.4.5 Other Corridors to be Advanced Into Screen 3 ..............................................3-18 3.5 Screen 3 Phase: Matching the Right Transit Modes to the Right Corridors and Prioritizing Improvements ....................................................................... 3-18 3.5.1 Assumptions for Screen 3 Evaluations .......................................................... 3-20 District of Columbia Transit Alternatives Analysis i Final Report 3.5.2 Screen 3 Evaluation Results .........................................................................3-23 3.5.3 Local Bus/Rapid Bus Enhancement Segments..............................................3-42 4.0 RECOMMENDED SYSTEM PLAN...........................................................................................4-1 4.1 Short-Term Local and Rapid Bus Service Enhancements................................ 4-6 4.1.1 Corridors.........................................................................................................4-6 4.1.2 Baseline Alternative ........................................................................................4-7 4.1.3 Immediate-Term Local Service Improvements.................................................4-7 4.1.4 Short-Term Rapid Bus Improvements............................................................ 4-10 4.2 Long-Term Premium Transit System ............................................................. 4-13 4.2.1 Streetcar Element ......................................................................................... 4-14 4.2.2 BRT Element ................................................................................................ 4-17 4.3 Implementation Schedule.............................................................................. 4-17 4.3.1 Short-Term Improvements.............................................................................4-18 4.3.2 Medium-Term Improvements ........................................................................4-20 4.3.3 Long-Term Projects.......................................................................................4-22 4.4 Benefits of System Plan Investments............................................................. 4-24 4.4.1 Impacts of Transit Investments on DC Tax Revenues.................................... 4-24 5.0 FINANCE PLAN.......................................................................................................................5-1 5.1 Capital and Operating Costs of the Improvements........................................... 5-1 5.1.1 Capital Costs ..................................................................................................5-1 5.1.2 O&M Costs .....................................................................................................5-4 5.1.3 Combined Capital and O&M Costs..................................................................5-7 5.2 Potential Funding Sources .............................................................................. 5-8 5.3 Finance Plan................................................................................................. 5-10 5.4 Potential for Federal Participation.................................................................. 5-18 5.4.1 Methodology ................................................................................................. 5-19 5.4.2 Findings........................................................................................................5-23 6.0 NEXT STEPS ..........................................................................................................................6-1 District of Columbia Transit Alternatives Analysis ii Final Report LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Schedule Adherence for Selected Metrobus Routes...................................................... 2-11 Table 2-2: Peak Hour Metrorail Vehicle Loading at Maximum Load Points, 2005-2010 .................. 2-16 Table 2-3: Bus Load Factors in Major Corridors.............................................................................2-18 Table 3-1: 2004 Public Outreach Efforts ..........................................................................................3-7 Table 3-2: Mode Screening ± First Step...........................................................................................3-9