SRI LANKA DEVELOPMENT UPDATE Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized June 2017 Public Disclosure Authorized Standard Disclaimer: This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries Copyright Statement: The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail [email protected]. Photo Credits: Cover, Executive Summary, Recent Developments and Challenges: Joseph C. Qian; Outlook, Risks and Policy Options: Janaka Thilakaratne; and World Bank Group Assistance: Anuki Premachandra. SRI LANKA DEVELOPMENT UPDATE June 2017 Preface The Sri Lanka Development Update has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past six months in Sri Lanka’s economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, it updates the outlook for Sri Lanka’s economy and social welfare. Second, the Update provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Sri Lanka’s evolving economy. This report was prepared by Kishan Abeygunawardana and Ralph van Doorn (Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice), with inputs from David Newhouse (Poverty and Equity), Emanuel Salinas-Munoz, Amila Dahanayake and Dinesha Samaranayake (Trade and Competitiveness), Suranga Kahandawa (Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience), Raffy Dominguez (IFC) and Juri Oka (Country Management Unit). Sashikala Jeyaraj provided formatting support. The report was prepared based on published data available on or before June 20, 2017. Data sources included World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Ministry of Finance, Department of Census and Statistics, and press reports. For questions, please contact: [email protected]. This report and more information on the Sri Lanka program can be found at http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/srilanka Stay in touch with the World Bank in Sri Lanka and South Asia via @WorldBank, @WorldBankSAsia http://www.facebook.com/worldbank, http://www.facebook.com/worldbanksrilanka https://instagram.com/worldbank/ http://www.linkedin.com/company/the-world-bank Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... 6 1. Recent Developments .................................................................................................... 6 2. Outlook and risks ........................................................................................................... 8 3. Special focus ................................................................................................................... 9 A. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ....................................................................................... 11 B. OUTLOOK, RISKS AND POLICY PRIORITIES ....................................................... 22 1. Outlook ......................................................................................................................... 22 2. Risks ............................................................................................................................. 25 3. Challenges and policy priorities ................................................................................... 26 C. SPECIAL FOCUS .......................................................................................................... 29 1. Special Focus: Unleashing Sri Lanka’s Trade Potential .............................................. 29 D. WORLD BANK GROUP ASSISTANCE...................................................................... 36 KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................................................................... 38 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Sri Lanka compared to peer countries......................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2: Sri Lanka compared to peer countries......................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3: Contributors to growth (production side) .................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 4: Contributors to growth (demand side) ...................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 5: Inflation Drivers (CCPI: 2013=100) .......................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 6: Headline versus core inflation (CCPI: 2013=100) .................................................................................................... 14 Figure 7: Overall Fiscal Balance .................................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 8: Public Debt Drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 9: External Debt Indicators ............................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 10: Gross Official Reserves ............................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 11: Breakdown of guarantees, end-2016 ......................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 12: Treasury bond and bills outflows were facilitated by foreign exchange sales .................................................... 17 Figure 13: Credit Leverage ............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Figure 14: Drivers of Domestic Credit ....................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 15: Fiscal balance ................................................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 16: Public Debt .................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 17: Eurobond Repayments ................................................................................................................................................ 26 Figure 18: Sri Lanka's post conflict sectoral growth map 2010-2016 ..................................................................................... 30 Figure 19: Sri Lanka's competitiveness indicators compared to peer countries ................................................................... 31 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Budget and Fiscal Outcomes ..................................................................................................................... 16 Table 2: Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................................... 19 Table 3: Growth prospects for key partners of Sri Lanka ..................................................................................... 25 LIST OF BOXES Box 1: Sri Lanka: country context ................................................................................................................................................. 10 Box 2: The impact of recurring natural disasters ....................................................................................................................... 12 Box 3: Global economic context ................................................................................................................................................