sustainability Article Impacts of Natural Disasters on Swedish Electric Power Policy: A Case Study Niyazi Gündüz *, Sinan Küfeo˘gluand Matti Lehtonen School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo 02150, Finland; sinan.kufeoglu@aalto.fi (S.K.); matti.lehtonen@aalto.fi (M.L.) * Correspondence: niyazi.gunduz@aalto.fi Academic Editors: Jenny Palm and Marc A. Rosen Received: 23 December 2016; Accepted: 4 February 2017; Published: 8 February 2017 Abstract: The future of climate and sustainable energy are interrelated. Speaking of one without mentioning the other is quite difficult. The increasing number of natural disasters pose a great threat to the electric power supply security in any part of the world. Sweden has been one of the countries that have suffered from unacceptably long blackouts. The tremendous outcomes of the power interruptions have made the field of the economic worth of electric power reliability a popular area of interest among researchers. Nature has been the number one enemy against the supply security of the electricity. This paper introduces a recent and thorough electric power reliability analysis of Sweden and focuses on the country’s struggle against climate change-related natural disasters via updating the country’s electric power policy to improve its service quality. The paper highlights the Gudrun storm of 2005 as a case study to demonstrate the severe impacts of extreme weather events on the energy systems. The economic damage of the storm on the electric power service calculated to be around 3 billion euros. Keywords: reliability; policy; climate; storm; power; interruption; Sweden 1. Introduction Energy is a vital part of life. By being easy to produce and easy to convert to other forms of energy, the significance of electric energy has been increasing from the date of its first usage. As years pass by electric power is penetrating into almost every aspect of daily life. This makes societies and the economies more dependent on electric power. The total electric power consumption in the world has been increasing considerably for the last 60 years [1]. The tremendous outcomes of the power interruptions have made the field of economic worth of electric power reliability a popular area of interest among the researchers. Nature events have been the biggest threat against the supply security of the electricity [2–4]. Experiences show that both the number and the duration of extreme weather events have increased substantially over the last decades. Environmental scientists indicate that the climate change is a major factor that increases the frequency and the intensity of these events [5]. The consequences of natural disasters are severe for the environment, the economy, and people’s wellbeing. Different parts of the world are prone to different types of extreme weather events. The central European flood of 2013 lasted almost a month and caused extensive damage to the ecosystem and to the communities. It also led to serious damages on the electric power system resulting in long lasting blackouts. Germany experienced the highest losses due to flooding, with a cost of 12 billion euros, where total losses in the region reached 17 billion euros [6]. The flooding in Toronto, Canada, in 2013 disrupted the power reliability and about 70,000 customers experienced long power interruptions [7]. On the other hand, in 2005, the hurricane Katrina hit the United States and about 2.7 million customers lost electric power [8]. In 2012, the hurricane Sandy caused severe damages in the United States and Canada and up to 9.3 million electric power customers experienced power Sustainability 2017, 9, 230; doi:10.3390/su9020230 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2017, 9, 230 2 of 11 Sustainability 2017, 9, 230 2 of 11 outagesoutages [9]. [9]. After After the the disaster, disaster, the the electric electric powerpower infrastructureinfrastructure repairing costs costs reached reached 3.5 3.5 billion billion dollarsdollars [9]. [9]. In In December December 2013,2013, heavy heavy storms storms hit hit the the United United Kingdom. Kingdom. The Environment The Environment Agency, Agency, Met MetOffice Office,, reported reported that that England England had had been been suffering suffering from from the wettest the wettest winter winter seen in seen 250 inyears 250 [10]. years Due [10 ]. Dueto to the the storm storms,s, in in the the United United Kingdom Kingdom and and Ireland, Ireland, about about 750,000 750,000 customers customers experienced experienced power power outagesoutages [11 ].[11]. In 2008,In 2008, extreme extreme ice ice storms storms caused caused substantial substantial damages damages in in China. China. The The long long and and heavy heavy ice formationsice formations on the on Chinese the Chinese power power grid ledgrid to led the to collapse the collaps of thousandse of thousands of transmission of transmission towers towers and henceand triggered hence triggered cascading cascading interruptions interruptions [12]. Almost [12]. Almost 200 million 200 million people people were notwere able not to able reach to reach electric powerelectric service power and service the direct and the costs direct of these costsinterruptions of these interruptions exceeded exceeded 2.2 billion 2.2 dollarsbillion dollars [12]. [12]. ThisThis paper paper introduces introduces a recenta recent and and thorough thoroughelectric electric powerpower reliability analysis analysis of of Sweden Sweden and and focusesfocuses on on the the country’s country’s struggle struggle against against climateclimate change change-related-related natural natural disasters. disasters. It also It also presents presents a cost estimation of the consequences of the Gudrun storm of 2005 on electric power customers. a cost estimation of the consequences of the Gudrun storm of 2005 on electric power customers. 2. The2. The Gudrun Gudrun Storm Storm of of 2005 2005 and and Its Its Aftermath Aftermath The Swedish annual electric power consumption per person is one of the highest in the world The Swedish annual electric power consumption per person is one of the highest in the [13]. Figure 1 illustrates and comparison of the electric power consumption per capita among several world [13]. Figure1 illustrates and comparison of the electric power consumption per capita among countries. several countries. In accordance with the energy and climate goals of the European Union, Sweden has been In accordance with the energy and climate goals of the European Union, Sweden has been taking measures in boosting the energy efficiency. Figure 1 presents the success of these policies by taking measures in boosting the energy efficiency. Figure1 presents the success of these policies by demonstrating the decrease in electric energy consumption per person for the last decade. However, demonstratingit is clear that the the decrease global financial in electric crises energy of 2008 consumption played a major per person role in for deteriorating the last decade. the European However, it iseconomies clear that, hence the global causing financial sharp decreases crises of in 2008 the playedconsumption a major of roleelectric in deterioratingenergy. the European economies, hence causing sharp decreases in the consumption of electric energy. 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 kWh/capita 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Sweden Nordics* Germany Italy Turkey France UK Figure 1. Yearly change of electric power consumption per capita in several countries [13]. * Finland, Sweden,Figure Norway, 1. Yearly and change Denmark of electric (Iceland power excluded). consumption per capita in several countries [13]. * Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark (Iceland excluded) ThanksThanks to to its its highly highly developed developed and and robust robust electricelectric powerpower infrastructure, Sweden Sweden had had been been enjoyingenjoying a higha high level level of of electric electric power power security security untiluntil thethe yearyear 2005.2005. In In January January 2005, 2005, the the Gudrun Gudrun stormstorm hit Northernhit Northern Europe, Europe causing, causing a substantial a substantial amount amount of destruction of destruction in Sweden, in Sweden, Denmark, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania,Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia., and SwedenEstonia. experiencedSweden experienced the most severethe most losses. severe Around losses. 730,000Around customers 730,000 experiencedcustomers long-lastingexperienced long power-lasting interruptions power interruptions [14]. The electricity[14]. The electricity service restoredservice restored within within 24 h for almost24 h halffor almost of the customershalf of the whocustomers lost power. who lost Throughout power. Throughout the country, the thecountry interruption, the interruption durations changeddurations due changed to the changing due to usagethe changing of underground usage of cables.underground The city cables. areas The were city least areas affected were thanksleast to theaffected high thanks degree to of the cabling. high degree The outages of cabling. in theseThe outages places in lasted these upplaces to several lasted up hours. to several On the hours. other hand,On sincethe other the powerhand, since distribution the power heavily distribution relies on heavily aerial relies lines, on the aerial outages lines, in the rural outages areas persistedin rural forareas up to persisted 20 days for [14 ].up The to 20 lines days passing [14]. The through lines passing forests through were