1 The London School of Economics and Political Science Explaining Change in Greek Policy on EU-Turkey Relations 1996-1999: The Prime Minister’s Leadership Style and the Formulation of the Helsinki Strategy Kyriakos Moumoutzis A thesis submitted to the European Institute of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, July 2009 UMI Number: U615703 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615703 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. 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Abstract In December 1999 during the Helsinki European Council summit Greece consented to the Turkish candidacy for EU membership in what has been greeted as a remarkable shift in Greek policy towards Turkey. The argument of this thesis is that the so-called “Helsinki strategy” constituted the culmination of Greek Prime Minister Simitis’ attempts to pursue what he referred to as the “communitisation” of Greco-Turkish relations. Simitis believed that Greece should allow Turkey to develop its relations with the EU within a framework of EU rules for Turkey’s behaviour towards Greece. According to the former Prime Minister, if Greece could establish such rules at the EU level, the EU would assume responsibility for ensuring Turkey’s compliance. The argument emphasises the causal significance of domestic sources of foreign policy and leadership style in particular. “Communitisation” was an internal, pre-conceived task, to the completion of which Simitis remained unequivocally committed throughout the period under investigation even in the face of severe constraints and evidence that challenged the necessity of the task. The argument was tested against three alternative explanations that incorporated all the explanatory variables discussed in the literature, including shifts in Greece’s relative power position, the increasing economic costs of Greek policy, an external shock that demonstrated policy failure and the establishment of relevant EU foreign policy practices. Empirical testing of the four alternative explanations was based on process-tracing their observable implications for three dimensions of the policy making process: the definition of the policy problem the Helsinki strategy was intended to address, the alternative courses of action Greek foreign policy makers considered and finally the manner in which they were assessed. The theoretical framework constructed to resolve this empirical puzzle can be fruitfully applied to the study of several EU member-states’ foreign policies, thus advancing the theoretically informed empirical study of foreign policy. 4 Acknowledgements I wish to thank all those who contributed to the completion of this project and especially Kevin Featherstone, Uli Sedelmeier, Karen Smith, participants in the weekly El research seminar, those who kindly agreed to be interviewed for this project and my family. The better part of this research was funded by the Bodossaki Foundation. 5 Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................7 The puzzle and the research question .................................................................... 7 The state of the art ..................................................................................................13 The argument ......................................................................................................... 24 The plan of the thesis ............................................................................................ 27 Chapter 2: Leadership, Europeanisation and Balancing ................................. 32 Introduction .................................................................................... 32 The unequivocally committed leader...................................................................33 Conceptualising change in Greek policy as the outcome of Europeanisation..37 Explaining change in Greek policy as the outcome of Europeanisation .......... 47 Reconfiguring internal and external balancing ................................................... 53 Conclusions ............................................................................................................58 Chapter 3: Establishing causality ......................................................................... 60 Introduction ............................................................................................................60 Process tracing ....................................................................................................... 61 Defining the policy problem .................................................................................64 Framing alternatives ..............................................................................................67 Assessing alternatives ........................................................................................... 69 Conclusions ............................................................................................................78 Chapter 4: Greek policy towards Turkey 1996-1999........................................80 Introduction ............................................................................................................80 From the crisis to the election ...............................................................................81 Towards Luxembourg........................................................................................... 87 From Luxembourg to Helsinki............................................................................. 98 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................110 Chapter 5: Defining the policy problem ............................................................ I l l Introduction ..........................................................................................................I l l Simitis’ vision for reform ....................................................................................112 The 1996 crisis and Greek concerns about Turkey’s policy............................ 117 The lack of US influence .................................................................................... 127 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................133 Chapter 6: Framing Alternatives ........................................................................135 Introduction ..........................................................................................................135 The early stages of communitisation ..................................................................137 The culmination of communitisation ................................................................. 145 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................158 Chapter 7: Assessing Alternatives ...................................................................... 160 Introduction ..........................................................................................................160 The benefits of communitisation ........................................................................ 162 Doing the right thing ........................................................................................... 170 The offer of membership as an incentive for compliance ................................ 174 The economic benefits of foreign policy change .............................................. 177 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................182 Chapter 8: Conclusions .........................................................................................184 The Helsinki strategy as the communitisation of Greco-Turkish relations.... 184 Beyond the Helsinki strategy..............................................................................197 Beyond Greco-Turkish relations ........................................................................ 200 Beyond Greek foreign policy............................................................................. 205 References 7 Chapter 1: Introduction The puzzle and the research