6 May 2015 | Vol. 6, № 16. From the Editor’s Desk Dear FDI supporters, Welcome to this week’s edition of the and former Prime Minister, Navin Strategic Weekly Analysis. Ramgoolam, continues. We begin this week with a look at post- We conclude our coverage this week with earthquake Nepal, where the prognosis an analysis of the need for Indonesia to for disease outbreaks ahead of the reform its foreign investment laws so that monsoon season is not good. it can more fully utilise the skills, knowledge and capital of foreign We then turn to the Middle East, where companies to ensure that supply will be we examine the growing closeness in able to meet demand. Franco-Saudi relations, following the successful visit to the kingdom of I trust that you will enjoy this edition of President François Hollande. the Strategic Weekly Analysis. Moving next to India, we analyse the Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) implications of the government’s land Institute Director and CEO acquisitions policy for both the country’s Future Directions International nuclear energy ambitions and its farmers. Looking next at Mauritius, we consider the bid by former Foreign Minister Arvin Boolell for the leadership of the Labour Party, as the fallout from its record electoral defeat and the arrest of leader ***** Water and Sanitation Prioritised in Nepal as Monsoon Season Looms Addressing the limited availability of fresh water and poor sanitation have been prioritised in Nepal, as overcrowded camps and the imminent arrival of the monsoon season increase the risk of a disease outbreak following last month’s earthquake. Background On 25 April, Nepal was struck by a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed over 7,500 people and injured thousands more. More than eight million people are estimated to have been affected and communities at the epicentre of the earthquake remain cut off. Access to, and the supply of, safe water and sanitation has long been a challenge in Nepal, which is located in one of the world’s most earthquake-prone regions. The vulnerability of the population to disease outbreaks following the disaster will make this challenge all the more acute. Comment According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), more than 130,000 houses were destroyed and over 24,000 people are now living in makeshift camps following last month’s earthquake. Relief workers are struggling to meet the needs of these camps as the number of people seeking shelter continues to rise. The slow disbursement of aid is hampering relief efforts. Nepal has only one international airport and authorities have advised that larger aircraft will not be able to land on the tarmac in an effort to avoid further damage to it. Customs clearance of supplies is also causing delays and frustrating aid workers, who are concerned that the delays are slowing down response times. Within the camps, the limited availability of shelter, overcrowded conditions and poor sanitation are increasing the risk of disease. Aid agencies are providing clean drinking water and hygiene packs where available and the Nepalese Health Department, along with international agencies, is running awareness and education campaigns highlighting the importance of hygiene and sanitation and listing the “dos and don’ts” for maintaining health. Continuing to supply these resources over the long term as demand grows is, however, a significant challenge. Open defecation is widespread and sanitation facilities are non-existent or severely limited. Chlorine tablets and purifiers have been distributed in an attempt to further secure safe water supplies. It is unlikely, however, that these efforts are enough to prevent the outbreak of disease. The spread of cholera and other water-borne diseases is a particular risk within Nepal and disease mitigation will be severely hampered by the coming monsoon season in June. Makeshift camps, heavy rains and open defecation create an environment where a health and sanitation crisis will be difficult to control. Medical facilities will not have the capacity to respond to disease outbreak should it occur; hospitals are already overstretched and there is a shortage of supplies and facilities. While current conditions may limit the ability of the authorities to prevent a sanitation and health Page 2 of 11 crisis, it is crucial that preparations are made now to contain and manage outbreaks when they occur. Some camps are managing the risk by creating sites away from tents for sanitary needs. Waste management and controlled open defecation sites should be replicated across all camps. In a country where only 37 per cent of the population had access to improved sanitation facilities in 2012, however, this will not be an easy task. Customs processes also require support and improvement. The traffic load of Nepal’s airport is unprecedented and clearing aid more quickly will assist with response times and clear the airport faster for more incoming aid. Long-term political ineffectiveness and a relatively informal local government system will create challenges in this process. Emergency response teams are already supporting the efforts of local authorities to manage aid flows and it is likely that a more efficient system will be put in place as initial relief efforts turn to more long-term rehabilitation. Supplying medical facilities and ensuring that safe drinking water continues to reach communities are paramount in reducing the risk of disease. Infrastructure, including water, sewage and public works infrastructure, has been crippled. It will be months, if not years, before it is repaired; in the meantime, the government will need to ensure that a regular, reliable source of safe water is available. The Nepalese Government does not have the capacity to do this alone. As initial recovery efforts continue, preventing a second crisis in the form of a health and sanitation emergency will require innovative and responsive solutions and long-term international support. Sinéad Lehane Research Manager Global Food and Water Crisis Research Programme ***** Franco-Saudi Discussions May Boost Regional Co-operation The Joint Statement by France and Saudi Arabia expressing their reservations about the Iranian nuclear deal and regional conflicts could be a precursor to closer co-operation in resolving future conflicts in the Middle East. Background French President François Hollande visited Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud on 4 May to discuss Iranian influence in the Middle East region, specifically in Yemen and Syria. According to the Al Arabia News network, they released a joint statement after the meeting stating that both countries ‘confirmed the necessity to reach a robust, lasting, verifiable, undisputed and binding deal with Iran’. It added, however, that ‘This agreement must not destabilise the security and stability of the region nor threaten the security and Page 3 of 11 stability of Iran's neighbours’. According to Reuters, while discussing the visit, a French diplomat noted that ‘[France and Saudi Arabia] have a real fear that when sanctions are lifted, Iran will be able to finance all its proxies across the region.’ The visit comes a day before a scheduled Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) meeting in Riyadh where Hollande will be the second-ever guest of honour. Comment Saudi Arabia’s initial response to the nuclear deal was cautious, but its opposition to the deal is not surprising. According to a statement released by the Saudi Press Agency soon after the deal, ‘The council of ministers expressed hope for attaining a binding and definitive agreement that would lead to the strengthening of security and stability in the region and the world’. The statement also stressed the importance of non-interference in the affairs of Arab states, a likely reference to Iran’s role in several conflicts in the Middle East. From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, a nuclear deal could see sanctions lifted on Iran, reviving its economy and possibly enabling Tehran to increase its regional influence. This is problematic given Riyadh’s strong perception of Iranian influence in Yemen and Syria. Riyadh, however, is in no position to boycott the deal, although it seems likely that it, along with the GCC, will use its support for the deal as a bargaining chip for weapons systems and security guarantees from the United States. According to the Wall Street Journal, the GCC member states plan to use a meeting in Washington next week to request additional fighter jets, missile batteries, surveillance equipment and defence agreements as a counter-measure against Iran. During the nuclear negotiations, France’s hardline stance came as a surprise. In speaking to the French Europe 1 radio network during the negotiations in March, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius expressed dissatisfaction with the trajectory of the talks and highlighted the need for a ‘robust’ and ‘solid’ agreement that would guarantee that Tehran would be unable to build a nuclear weapon. President Hollande also cautioned that France ‘will be watchful’ to ensure that Iran cannot access nuclear arms under the agreement. Consequently, France has differentiated itself from other Western countries involved in the talks and aligned its views closer to those of Saudi Arabia. President Hollande’s alignment with the Saudi position comes soon after Mr Fabius, expressing support for the Saudi coalition in Yemen, told reporters that, ‘we are here to demonstrate our support, especially political, to the Saudi authorities’. In the 2013 French White Paper on Defence and National Security, contributing to the stability of the Middle East and the Arab-Persian Gulf is listed as the fourth strategic priority of the Hollande Government. Under this heading, the paper notes, ‘The United States has dominant strategic influence in the region, but France is stepping up its presence and defence co-operation.’ That position was confirmed with the signing of a US$7 billion deal for the sale of 24 Dassault Rafale fighter jets to Qatar on 4 May.