UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE CATALUÑA BARCELONA-TECH University Research Institute for Sustainability Science and Technology UNESCO Chair in Sustainability Doctoral Programme in Sustainability, Technology and Humanism PhD Thesis A RESILIENCE TRANSITION FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT: A process design methodology to support participatory decision making Supervisors Prof. Xavier ALVAREZ del CASTILLO Emeritus Prof. Leo JANSEN (in memoriam) Author Nicola TOLLIN Barcelona September 2015 1 ABSTRACT Following a review of sustainable development principles and key urban challenges, as climate and global environmental changes, the thesis develops a process design methodology for urban resilience transition. The methodology is based on broad stakeholders’ participation, following co-design and co-evolution principles. The process design methodology delivers a significant innovation, contributing to planning theory and practices for urban resilience, through an integrated cross-scale approach including both time and space dimensions, which is novel compared to current state of the art. Moreover, the process design methodology is based on a participatory approach, which re-defines the role of planner in a wider perspective, considering it as a facilitator of planning and design processes, more than a demiurge. KEY WORDS Sustainable Urban Development, Urban Resilience, Transition, climate change adaptation and mitigation, process design 2 PROLOGUE Frame Today over 50% of world population lives in urban areas (75% in EU), and cities account for 60-80% of global energy consumption and the same share of GHG CO2, producing 50% of global waste, consuming 75% of natural resources and producing 80% of global GDP. Cities are facing key global challenges, related to climate change and global environmental change, with high negative impact worldwide. This requires immediate cross-scale action, to mitigate the negative externalities of cites activities on climate and environment, and to adapt cities to the global changes and their negative impact; at the same time reducing and preventing slow and rapid on-setting risks. Theme Sustainable development is a dynamic and continuously adapting process, not a final state. For this reason it has to be managed as a transition pathway from the current state of unsustainability, to a more sustainable one. This transition process is characterized by constant mutations and changes occurring in time and space, which are evolving in parallel to our knowledge development, allowing an increasing better understanding of present uncertainty factors. Knowledge gaps There are evident knowledge gaps, that this thesis is addressing, as described within the state of the art section, including: - Very limited research on urban resilience, able to integrate mitigation, adaptation and risk management; and inexistence of formalized resilience planning methodologies; - Limited research on urban transition to sustainability, and lack of spatial determinants within transition studies; - Very limited research on how to define, in a participatory way, the target scenarios of backcasting processes. The objective The objective of this thesis is to develop a participatory process design methodology, addressing the knowledge gaps mentioned above, able to guide and support decision making, involving stakeholders and particularly local communities, in a constant dialogue under the principles of co-design and co-evolution. Methodology The research methodology, used for developing the process design method, consists in a background analysis of the conceptual development of “sustainability” and “urban sustainability”, which is used to determine a working definition of sustainable urban development. This preliminary phase is followed by 3 the analysis of current theories regarding transition, system thinking and resilience, demonstrating the need of basing the participatory process design method, on spatial-temporal integration and integrated evaluation. Finally the process design method is developed and testes, using a knowledge brokerage setting in a real-life environment. The development of the process design method was also based on the collaboration and discussion with many colleagues, at international level, through the development of EU FP7 and H2020, all of them marked above the thresholds after rigorous peer evaluation by EU, and some of them financed. Results The main result is a complete process design methodology for resilience transition based on participatory planning, integrating multiple spatial and temporal dimension, using a systemic approach and supported by an integrated evaluation system, which is ready to use in any operational environment. The process design methodology has been developed, with reference to EU Technology Readiness Level (TRL), from a starting point of “TRL 1: idea inception” to a final point of “TRL7: prototype demonstration in operational environment”. The key innovations achieved include: - The integration of mitigation, adaptation and risk for urban resilience planning. - The integration of spatial dimensions within sustainability transition processes. - The integration of a participatory selection process of desirable/realistic target futures within participatory backcasting. The process design methodology includes also a shorter simulated version, called “knowledge brokerage”, which is used to introduce the methodology to potential users and to collect preliminary information for its later application. 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Ai mie babbi e tutta la mia familia, per il grande supporto, la comprensione e l’incoraggiamento constante in questi anni. Til min kaerste og min danske familie. To all the friends for their support and understanding for all this time. A la Catedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad, en el conjunto de todas las personas excepcionales que han compartido con fuerza, pasión y luchas, inspirando grandes discusiones e intercambios profesionales y de gran amistad. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................ 2 KEY WORDS .......................................................................................... 2 PROLOGUE ........................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................... 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS.......................................................................... 6 LISTS OF FIGURES AND TABLES ..................................................... 10 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS ....................................... 11 1 THE GENERAL RESEARCH FRAME ............................................. 12 INTRODUCING THE RESEARCH ............................................................... 12 1.1.1 JUSTIFICATION OF THE RESEARCH ...................................................................... 12 1.1.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS.............................................................................................. 15 1.1.3 HYPOTHESIS .................................................................................................................. 16 1.1.4 SCOPE AND GOALS ...................................................................................................... 18 1.1.5 RESEARCH FRAME, BOUNDARIES AND LIMITS ................................................. 20 STRUCTURING THE RESEARCH .............................................................. 21 1.2.1 STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................... 21 1.2.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 28 DELIVERING THE RESEARCH .................................................................. 32 1.3.1 INNOVATIVE POTENTIAL.......................................................................................... 32 1.3.2 ACHIEVED RESULTS ................................................................................................... 33 1.3.3 EXPECTED RESULTS AND fUTURE IMPACT ........................................................ 34 2 THE STATUS QUO ......................................................................... 36 FRAME: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ................................................. 36 2.1.1 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE .......................................................... 36 2.1.2 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PATHWAY .......................................................... 47 6 2.1.3 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS: FUTURE CHALLENGES ................. 50 2.1.4 WORKING DEFINITION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT .......................... 54 CONTEXT: URBAN SYSTEMS ................................................................... 56 2.2.1 SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT BRIEF TIMELINE .............................. 56 2.2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................................................... 60 2.2.3 RESOURCE EFFICIENCY ............................................................................................ 62 2.2.4 PARTICIPATION AND GOVERNANCE .................................................................... 64 2.2.5 WORKING DEFINITION OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT ........... 67 3 THE THEORETICAL FRAME .......................................................... 69 SYSTEM THINKING .................................................................................... 69 3.1.1 SYSTEM THINKING