CHAPTER III Scenario Descriptions Introduction Figure III-1. Illustrative Truck Size and Weight Scenarios The outreach process Base Case versus Uniformity described in Chapter I identified a number of truck size and weight (TS&W) H.R. 551 issues of broad interest. Those issues were North American Trade incorporated into a set of illustrative scenarios that Longer Combination reflected changes in various Vehicles Nationwide Federal TS&W regulations. Potential impacts of those Triples scenarios were analyzed Nationwide against base case impacts of maintaining current Federal TS&W regulations. Figure disposition toward a III-1 shows the five particular TS&W policy illustrative scenarios option. Rather, they were analyzed in this study: selected to illustrate potential The Base Case provides a • Uniformity impacts across a broad range point of reference for the • North American Trade of possible TS&W changes. scenario analyses. It • LCVs Nationwide represents the motor carrier • H.R. 551 This chapter describes the and rail industries in the year • Triples Nationwide illustrative scenarios in 2000, absent any significant detail. The scenarios changes in Federal or State The H.R. 551 and Triples address a wide range of TS&W limits. Nationwide scenarios are issues, and were specified to subsets of the Uniformity estimate the upper range of Introduction Scenario and the LCVs impacts that might be Nationwide Scenario expected from various types The Base Case retains all respectively. They are of TS&W policy changes. features of current law. indented in Figure III-1 to Under different assumptions Federal size limits [102-inch show this relationship. about the vehicle weights and maximum vehicle width, dimensions that might be 48-foot minimum semitrailer In addition, a Base Case was allowed under each scenario length limits or longer if established against which the or the networks of highways grandfathered (see Figure III- illustrative scenarios are that might be available for 2), and 28-foot minimum compared. certain vehicles, the trailer length limits for estimated impacts might be double-trailer combinations] These scenarios should not lower. remain on the Interstate be construed as being System and other highways indicative of the Department of Transportation’s (DOT’s) Base Case on the NN. Operation of commercial motor vehicle Figure III-2. State Semitrailer Lengths on the NN combinations with two or more cargo-carrying units on The Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982 the NN are restricted to mandated minimum semitrailer lengths of 48 feet. length limits in effect on June However, in those States having semitrailer lengths longer 1, 1991. than 48 feet, these lengths became the (grandfathered) minimum. The current Federal weight limits on Interstate highways Alabama 53'6" Montana 53'0" and bridges [20,000-pound Alaska 48'0" Nebraska 53'0" single-axle, 34,000-pound Arizona 57'6" Nevada 53'0" tandem-axle, 80,000-pound Arkansas 53'6" New Hampshire 48'0" gross vehicle weight (GVW) cap, and Federal Bridge California 48'0" * New Jersey 48'0" Formula (FBF)] continue, as Colorado 57'4" * New Mexico 57'6" do existing grandfather rights. Connecticut 48'0" New York 48'0" Operation of LCVs on the Delaware 53'0" North Carolina 48'0" Interstate Highway System, is District of Columbia 48'0" North Dakota 53'0" restricted by State law in Florida 48'0" Ohio 53'0" effect as of June 1, 1991. Georgia 48'0" Oklahoma 59'6" The analysis year for the Hawaii 48'0" Oregon 53'0" study is 2000. Projections of Idaho 48'0" Pennsylvania 53'0" the truck fleet and truck VMT Illinois 53'0" Puerto Rico 48'0" are based on trends from Indiana 48'6" * Rhode Island 48'6" 1994, the base year for both Iowa 53'0" South Carolina 48'0" this study and the 1997 Kansas 57'6" South Dakota 53'0" Federal Highway Cost Allocation (HCA) Study. Kentucky 53'0" Tennessee 50'0" Based on a review of many Louisiana 59'6" Texas 59'0" studies, the fleet and VMT Maine 48'0" Utah 48'0" were projected to increase at Maryland 48'0" Vermont 48'0" an annual rate of 2.6 percent Massachusetts 48'0" Virginia 48'0" a year between 1994 and Michigan 48'0" Washington 48'0" 2000. Minnesota 48'0"" West Virginia 48'0" Mississippi 53'0" Wisconsin 48'0" Missouri 53'0" Wyoming 57'4" * King pin regulation applies Source: 23CFR 658, Appendix B III-2 Table 1. Base Year and Forecast Commercial Vehicle Fleet and Travel Number of Vehicles Vehicle Miles Traveled (in millions) Vehicle Class Percent Percent 1994 2000 Share of 1994 2000 Share of Truck Fleet Truck Fleet 3-axle single unit truck 594,197 693,130 24.9 8,322 9,707 7.6 4-axle or more single unit truck 106,162 123,838 4.4 2,480 2,893 2.2 3-axle tractor-semitrailer 101,217 118,069 4.2 2,733 3,188 2.5 4-axle tractor-semitrailer 227,306 265,152 9.5 9,311 10,861 8.5 5-axle tractor-semitrailer 1,027,760 1,198,880 43.0 71,920 83,895 65.4 6-axle tractor-semitrailer 95,740 111,681 4.0 5,186 6,049 4.7 7-axle tractor-semitrailer 8,972 10,466 0.3 468 546 0.4 3- or 4- axle truck-trailer 87,384 101,934 3.6 1,098 1,280 1.0 5-axle truck-trailer 51,933 60,579 2.2 1,590 1,855 1.4 6-axle or more truck-trailer 11,635 13,572 0.5 432 503 0.4 5-axle double 51,710 60,319 2.2 4,512 5,263 4.1 6-axle double 7,609 8,876 0.3 627 731 0.6 7-axle double 7,887 9,201 0.3 542 632 0.5 8-axle or more double 9,319 10,871 0.4 650 759 0.6 Triples 1,203 1,404 0.0 108 126 0.1 Characteristics of the Base and Reebie Associates. This those trucks likely to be Case commercial vehicle report projects an annual impacted by changes in fleet are consistent with those growth rate for rail car miles TS&W limits were explicitly in the HCA Study. The HCA of 2.2 percent to the year considered in the study. Study provides VMT for 2000. Rail intermodal car Table III-2 shows selected vehicle classes miles were projected to grow characteristics of how those disaggregated by weight at 5.5 percent per year. vehicles are currently used. group, highway functional class, and State. Scenario Specifications The impact that base year (1994) truck operations The rail base case was The number of trucks would have on infrastructure projected to the year 2000 estimated to be in the truck costs (bridge, pavement, using the “International and fleet and the extent of their roadway geometry), safety, Domestic Freight Trends” use in 1994 and 2000 are traffic operations, energy and report by DRI/McGraw-Hill shown in Table III-1 Only environment, shipper costs, III-3 and rail industry marine links for connection to competitiveness was the major U.S. truck and rail A myriad of TS&W compared to the impact that networks. regulations affects U.S. truck operations would have trucking operations. These in 2000 if no significant The Networks differences reflect variations TS&W policy changes in economic and industrial occurred. This comparison Single unit trucks (SUTs) and activities, freight flow shows how changes shorter single-trailer truck characteristics, infrastructure estimated to occur between combinations have access to design and maintenance 1994 and 2000, essentially virtually all highways. philosophies, system due to growth in travel “STAA” double trailer condition, traffic densities demand, would compare to combinations and and modal options. impacts expected to result combinations with 48-foot Many believe that grandfather from TS&W policy changes semitrailers operate on a rights create enforcement in the year 2000 Base Case. 200,000-mile network problems. Also, there is designated under the Surface concern that vehicles with The Vehicles Transportation Assistance potentially damaging axle Act of 1982 (STAA). weights may be allowed to The truck configurations Combinations with semi- operate under grandfather analyzed in this study and trailers longer than 48 feet provisions. Equity issues are their current use in terms of generally must comply with also important in that carriers areas of operation, length of State routing requirements in one State are afforded haul, types of commodities and provisions to minimize valuable operating privileges carried, and highways used vehicle offtracking. that are denied to shippers are described in Table III-2. and carriers (and the The maximum weights and Access Provisions industries they represent) in dimensions allowed for these neighboring States. Finally, configurations in each State STAA combinations safety and congestion issues have been modeled by (vehicles authorized under related to large trucks are of dividing the country into six the STAA legislation) are increasing concern to auto, as regions (see Figure III-3) and given access to terminals well as truck drivers. This selecting the median weights (points of loading and scenario is designed to test and dimensions for the unloading) and service the impact of removing the configurations from among facilities (for food, fuel, rest, grandfather provisions and the States in the region (see and repair) under State Tables II-2 to II-4 in Volume provisions that follow II). The regions are: North- Federal regulations called for east (14 States), Southeast (9 by the STAA. All States States), Midwest (9 States), must allow access for STAA South Central (2 States), vehicles from and to the NN West (14 States), and via any routes they can safely California.