KEY ELEMENTS OF SECTORAL RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE AFTER THE CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKES: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Civil and Natural Resources Engineering Department by Hlekiwe Kachali University of Canterbury 2013 Key elements of sectoral recovery and resilience after the Canterbury earthquakes: A system dynamics iii approach Hlekiwe Kachali Preface This work has come about through the contribution of many individuals and many events. I came to Christchurch, a few days before the 4 September 2010 earthquake, with a general idea of what my research would be. That changed on 4th September 2010 at 4:35am when greater Christchurch had the first in a series of earthquakes of MW 7.1. From a research perspective, the earthquakes brought about an invaluable research environment. However, for greater Christchurch, it was a sad moment. In Christchurch I have seen the power that nature holds and that nature can wield. As I write this, it feels good to know that whatever the setbacks, Christchurch is on the way to recovering. Cantabrians, whatever the circumstances they have lived through and because of that experience, are determined to define for themselves who they are and who they should be. iv Preface Key elements of sectoral recovery and resilience after the Canterbury earthquakes: A system dynamics v approach Hlekiwe Kachali Acknowledgements There are so many others who have contributed in so many ways to the completion of this thesis. Thank you. To my supervisors: Dr. Erica Seville, Associate Professor John Vargo and Professor David Elms. This thesis has involved the combination of many facets and each of you has provided a significant and unique contribution which I am greatly indebted for. As well as your guidance in the technical aspects of this research, you also have had a positive impact in my personal development for which I am further grateful to you all. Thank you to the other of the 3 PhDs, what a journey. Thanks to Drs. Tom Wilson, Barry Newell, Margaret Rossiter and Derek Roger for their invaluable comments on some of my thoughts. To all my friends scattered across the globe; thank you for putting up with my ramblings and for keeping me sane. Many thanks to all the people who allowed me to interview them while they were in the midst of sorting through the chaos after the earthquakes. Thanks also to all the organisations and interviewees without whom it would not have been possible to come to these conclusions. Without their cooperation and help this research would not have been. To my family for putting up with my being in places that made you lose sleep at night: naonga. To mum who made me believe that I could scale any heights and whose advice is even more useful today, I know you would have been so proud of me. vi Acknowledgements Key elements of sectoral recovery and resilience after the Canterbury earthquakes: A system dynamics vii approach Hlekiwe Kachali Abstract The Canterbury region of New Zealand experienced four earthquakes greater than MW 6.0 between September 2010 and December 2011. This study employs system dynamics as well as hazard, recovery and organisational literature and brings together data collected via surveys, case studies and interviews with organisations affected by the earthquakes. This is to show how systemic interactions and interdependencies within and between industry and geographic sectors affect their recovery post-disaster. The industry sectors in the study are: construction for its role in the rebuild, information and communication technology which is a regional high-growth industry, trucking for logistics, critical infrastructure, fast moving consumer goods (e.g. supermarkets) and hospitality to track recovery through non-discretionary and discretionary spend respectively. Also in the study are three urban centres including the region’s largest Central Business District, which has been inaccessible since the earthquake of 22 February 2011 to the time of writing in February 2013. This work also highlights how earthquake effects propagated between sectors and how sectors collaborated to mitigate difficulties such as product demand instability. Other interacting factors are identified that influence the recovery trajectories of the different industry sectors. These are resource availability, insurance payments, aid from central government, and timely and quality recovery information. This work demonstrates that in recovering from disaster it is crucial for organisations to identify what interacting factors could affect their operations. Also of importance are efforts to reduce the organisation’s vulnerability and increase their resilience to future crises and in day-to-day operations. Lastly, the multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the recovery and resilience of organisations and industry sectors after disaster, leads to a better understanding of effects as well as more effective recovery policy. viii Abbreviations Abbreviations BRT (BRT-53) – Benchmark Resilience Tool (complete version) BRT-13 - Benchmark Resilience Tool (short version) CAS – Complex Adaptive Systems CBD – Central Business District CCC – Christchurch City Council CCDU – Central City Development Unit CERA – Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority CDEM – Civil Defence and Emergency Management CLD – Causal Loop Diagram CREDS – Canterbury Regional Economic Development Strategy ECan – Environment Canterbury EQC – Earthquake Commission FMCG – Fast Moving Consumer Goods ICT – Information and Communication Technology MCDEM – Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management MMI – Modified Mercalli Intensity (depicting severity of shaking in an earthquake) MW – Moment Magnitude (measuring the amount of energy released by an earthquake) REAG – Resilience Expert Advisory Group RRC – Recovery Rate Coefficient SD – System Dynamics TISN – Trusted Information Sharing Network Key elements of sectoral recovery and resilience after the Canterbury earthquakes: A system dynamics ix approach Hlekiwe Kachali Definitions used in this thesis Business-as-usual – organisational and sectoral conditions pre-earthquakes Contextual interviews – interviews with industry and business leaders, recovery agency representatives to establish the background and context in which organisational and sectoral recovery was taking place after the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 – 2011 Effective - the intended and actual outcomes are the same Failure - when a system component does not fulfil its intended purpose in a certain timeframe (Leveson, 1986, p. 128) Industry sector (sector) - a group of organisations that operate in the same segment of the economy or share a similar business type are characterised as making up an industry sector Organisation - collections of people joining together in some formal association in order to achieve group or individual objectives (Dawson, 1992, p. xviii). Organisations in this study include for-profits, not-for-profits and government departments. Organisation and business will be used interchangeably in this thesis Organisational crisis - threat to the organization's reputation and viability (Pearson & Mitroff, 1993, p. 49) Organisational crisis management - the efforts by an organisation and external parties to prevent crises or to manage effectively crises that arise Organisational or sectoral recovery - when an organisation or sector can function and sustain itself (continually) in its new post-disaster environment Organisational resilience - the ability to survive crisis and thrive in a world of uncertainty Seville et al (2008, p. 18) Risk - the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, p. 1) x Abbreviations Societal crisis - a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR, 2009a, p. n. pag) Supply web – a supply chain implies a linear relationship between a focal organisation, suppliers, customers and infrastructure used to manufacture/produce and deliver goods and services. From a system dynamics point of view, the interactions between these system actors is non-linear, hence the idea of the supply web. System - an assemblage or combination of things or parts forming a complex or unitary whole (R. A. Johnson, Kast, & Rosenzweig, 1964, p. 367) System delays and environmental time delays - a system delay is caused by a lag in the effect of one system element on another. In the time horizon for this thesis, the system delays are not yet evident. Environmental time delays are those in the system’s environment that have an effect on the system. Key elements of sectoral recovery and resilience after the Canterbury earthquakes: A system dynamics xi approach Hlekiwe Kachali Table of contents Preface .................................................................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................................. v Abstract ............................................................................................................................................................... vii Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................................