Bradford District Covid-19 Economic Impacts Overview 8th February 2021 1. Economic Overview GDP recovered strongly over the summer…. ….but will be late 2022 before it regains pre-Covid levels Covid-19 GVA Impacts by Sector Covid-19 GVA Impacts by Sector - Bradford District 1. Labour Market West Yorkshire 16-64 year old claimant rates • The Bradford District unemployment-related claimant rate at 9.4% is the highest in West Yorkshire and significantly above the rate for the Leeds City Region (6.6%) and for the UK (6.3%) National unemployment still low by historic standards Ward claimant rate Claimants rates range from 16.6% in Manningham to 2.6% in Wharfedale. The rates in Bradford inner city wards are amongst the highest rates in the UK. % Manningham 16.6 Little Horton 15.3 Bowling and Barkerend 14.7 Bradford Moor 13.5 Great Horton 13.3 City 13.0 Toller 11.8 Keighley Central 11.2 Heaton 11.1 Tong 11.1 Eccleshill 10.6 Bolton and Undercliffe 9.6 Royds 9.6 Thornton and Allerton 9.2 Clayton and Fairweather Green 9.1 Wibsey 8.7 Windhill and Wrose 8.5 Keighley West 8.3 Wyke 8.1 Keighley East 6.9 Shipley 6.4 Queensbury 5.8 Idle and Thackley 5.3 Bingley Rural 5.0 Baildon 4.6 Bingley 4.3 Worth Valley 3.9 Ilkley 3.3 Craven 3.1 Wharfedale 2.6 Ward claimant number change March-December Most of the increase in the claimant count came in first two months of lockdown. Claimant count has continued to rise in the most deprived wards since the end of May whilst falling in the majority of wards in Airedale and Wharfedale. Bradford District 18-24 years youth claimant rate one of highest in the country • The Bradford District 18-24 years youth claimant rate is 14.7 %, slightly higher than in November. It was 7.8% in March, therefore there has been a 6.9 percentage point increase. • It is significantly above the West Yorkshire average of 9.9% and the UK rate of 8.8%. • Excluding the London Boroughs, of all local authorities, Bradford has the 6th highest 18-24 years claimant rate in the country. In terms of cities - the 2nd after Wolverhampton • Bradford East has the highest 18-24 years rate at 17.6% and Shipley the lowest at 10.9%. Ward 18-24 years claimant numbers November 2020 Count Manningham 480 City 470 Little Horton 460 Bowling and Barkerend 430 Bradford Moor 425 Toller 370 Great Horton 330 Tong 320 Eccleshill 305 Heaton 290 Keighley Central 265 Thornton and Allerton 230 Clayton and Fairweather Green 225 Bolton and Undercliffe 220 Royds 220 Windhill and Wrose 195 Keighley West 190 Wibsey 165 Keighley East 155 Wyke 150 Queensbury 140 Bingley Rural 125 Shipley 115 Idle and Thackley 110 Bingley 95 Baildon 70 Worth Valley 60 Craven 55 Ilkley 55 Wharfedale 40 Majority of employees are back at work Latest data shows furloughed workers rose in December • 58,000 employments furloughed in May reduced to 16,000 in September but rose to 24,000 0n December • Retail furloughed employments fell from 12,800 in May to 3,800 in August • Hospitality furloughed employments 8,800 in May to 3,200 in August National redundancies at record levels Vacancies 25% below pre-Covid levels 1. Business Conditions Majority of business were trading prior to second lockdown Business Start Ups on a par with 2019 overall • Number of businesses starting up during the first eight months of this year compared with the corresponding period of last year was broadly unchanged(-0.8%). • This growth rate ranks Bradford at 15 out of the 317 English districts. Business failures lower than peak, but have risen recently 1. Place Impacts City Centre footfall is 60% of pre footfall City Centre National Lockdown Begins Non-essential Retail allowed to open - coronavirus levels coronavirus Local Restrictions Imposed National Lockdown Begins Mixed picture across West Yorkshire prior to 2nd Lockdown Bradford still performing better than most UK cities Bradford Online and other non-store retail grew 32% in 2020, while clothing store sales fell Eat Out to Help Out English region Total number Total number Total amount Average Average / Country of outlets of meals of discount amount discount per claimed claimed for claimed (£) claimed per meal (£) outlet (£) Yorkshire & 5,032 9,360,000 52,798,000 10,500 5.64 the Humber Bradford 456 1,085,000 6,716,000 14,700 6.19 Calderdale 216 323,000 1,997,000 9,200 6.18 Kirklees 340 645,000 3,813,000 11,200 5.91 Leeds 741 1,396,000 8,038,000 10,800 5.76 Wakefield 227 434,000 2,481,000 10,900 5.72 Bradford East 68 235,000 1,498,000 22,000 6.37 Bradford South 35 76,000 411,000 11,700 5.42 Bradford West 153 439,000 2,796,000 18,300 6.37 Keighley 123 236,000 1,443,000 11,700 6.10 Shipley 77 98,000 567,000 7,400 5.76 .