RUSSIA’S ASIA-PACIFIC POLICY IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE OF THE MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY TÜLAY ŞAVLI IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS MAY 2012 Approval of Graduate School of Social Sciences ________________________________ Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science ________________________________ Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Head of Program This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. ________________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever Supervisor Examining Committee Members Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fırat Purtaş (GU, IR) _____________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Oktay Tanrısever (METU, IR) _____________________________ Assist. Prof. Bayram Sinkaya (YBU, IR) _____________________________ I hereby declare that all the information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name : Tülay ŞAVLI Signature : iii ABSTRACT RUSSIA’S ASIA-PACIFIC POLICY IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA Şavlı, Tülay M.S., International Relations Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever May 2012, 138 pages The purpose of this study is to analyze and discuss Russia’s Asia-Pacific policy after the end of the Cold War by focusing on Moscow’s bilateral relations with the major regional countries and its overall multilateral approach and policies towards the Asia- Pacific region. Contrary to the views of scholars who claim that Russia has already emerged as a major power in the Asia-Pacific, the thesis argues that Russia’s strategy of becoming a great power in the Asia-Pacific Region has significant limitations stemming from its competitive and assertive policies that ignore the role of multilateralism and international cooperation. Although Russia has been actively engaged in the region at the bilateral level and through its participation in the regional organizations in the post-Cold war era, this region has its own particular dynamics which necessitate a greater level of regional economic integration and a liberal approach to multilateralism rather than a realist “power politics” approach. Russia’s policy of aligning itself with China militarily in the region has counterproductive consequences as it intensifies geopolitical competition in the region, and marginalizes Moscow further. The thesis is composed of six chapters. After the introduction, the second chapter examines origins of Russia’s presence in the Asia-Pacific Region. The following chapter discusses the sources of Russia’s increasing interest in the Region. The fourth chapter is concerned with Russia’s relations with main actors of the Asia- Pacific Region while the fifth chapter focuses on Russia’s involvement in the regional organizations. The last chapter is the conclusion. Keywords: Russia, Asia- Pacific, Post-Cold War, China, Great Power iv ÖZ RUSYA’NIN SOĞUK SAVAŞ SONRASI ASYA-PASİFİK POLİTİKASI Şavlı, Tülay Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Tez Yöneticisi: Doç. Dr. Oktay Tanrısever Mayıs 2012, 138 sayfa Bu çalışmanın amacı Rusya’nın soğuk savaş sonrası Asya-Pasifik Bölgesi’nde izlediği siyaseti, Moskova’nın belli başlı bölge ülkeleri ile ikili ilişkileri ve bölgedeki bölgesel organizasyonlara yönelik yaklaşımı ve politikaları üzerine yoğunlaşarak, incelemek ve tartışmaktır. Rusya’nın Asya-Pasifik Bölgesi’nde büyük güç haline geldiğini öne süren akademisyenlerin görüşlerinin aksine, bu tez, Rusya’nın Asya- Pasifik Bölgesi’nde büyük güç olmak için izlediği rekabetçi ve iddialı politikaların çok-taraflılık ilkesini ve uluslararası işbirliğinin rolünü gözardı etmesi nedeniyle ciddi kısıtlılıklarının olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Rusya’nın soğuk savaş sonrası dönemde Asya-Pasifik Bölgesi’ne yönelik olarak izlediği aktif politikalara rağmen, Bölgedeki dinamikler bölgesel işbirliği ve daha liberal bir çok-taraflı yaklaşımı gerekli kıldığından, Rusya’nın Çin’le çok yakin bir askeri işbirliği politikası izlemesi Bölgedeki jeopolitik rekabeti arttırırken, Moskova’yı da bölgede daha da tecrit edici bir etkisi olmaktadır. Bu tez altı bölümden oluşmaktadır. Giriş bölümünden sonra, ikinci bölüm Rusya’nın bölgedeki varlığının temellerini incelemektedir. İzleyen bölüm, Rusya’nın Asya Pasifik Bölgesi’ne artan ilgisinin kaynaklarını tartışmaktadır. Dördüncü bölüm Rusya’nın bölgedeki temel aktörlerle ilişkilerini incelerken, beşinci bölüm Rusya’nın bölgesel işbirliği mekanizmalarıyla ilişkilerine odaklanmaktadır. Son bölümü sonuç oluşturmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Rusya, Asya Pasifik, Soğuk savaş sonrası dönem, Çin, Büyük Güç v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever for his support, guidance and constructive criticism throughout my study. I also would like to express my gratitude to the other examining committee members, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fırat Purtaş and Assist. Prof. Dr. Bayram Sinkaya for their valuable comments, suggestions and contributions to my study. I also thank my family and friends for their support and encouragement. vi ABBREVIATIONS APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Countries ASEAN-PMC ASEAN-Post Ministerial Conferences ASEAN+3 ASEAN+China, Japan, South Korea ASEAN ISIS ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies ADMM Plus ASEAN Defense Ministers Plus Meeting ASEAN-Russia ASEAN-Russia Dialogue Partnership Financial Fund DPFF ADB Asian Development Bank ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEM Asia- Europe Meeting BRICS Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Grouping CSCAP Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific EAS East Asia Summit ERIA Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia ESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific NEACD Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue PBEC Pacific Basin Economic Council PECC Pacific Economic Cooperation Council RIC Russia-India-China Grouping SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SEANWFZ The Protocol on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-free Zone TAC The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM…… ……………………………………………………………….iii ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………..................iv ÖZ………………………………………………………………………………… vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………..viii ABBREVIATIONS…………………………………………………………………ix TABLE OF CONTENTS………………….…………………………………………x CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………............1 2. HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF RUSSIA’S POLICIES TOWARDS ASIA- PACIFIC REGION …...............................................................................................12 2.1 Introduction……………………………………………… ………...........12 2.2. Historical Origins (17th century - 1991)…………………………….........12 2.3. Russia’s Approach towards the Asia-Pacific Region under Boris Yeltsin (1991-2000)…………………………………………………………….….20 2.4. Russia’s Approach towards the Asia-Pacific Region under Vladimir Putin (2000-2008)………………………………………………………………..23 2.5. Russia’s Approach towards the Asia-Pacific Region under Dmitry Medvedev (2008-2012)…………………………………………………..26 2.6. Conclusion…………………………………………………..……..….….28 3. THE SOURCES OF RUSSIA’S INCREASING INTEREST IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION……………………………………………………………..….30 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………….30 viii 3.2. Political Factors…...………………………………………………………..30 3.3. Economic Factors…………………………………………………………..34 3.4. Security Factors…………………………………………………………….38 3.5. Internal Regional Factors……………………………………………………45 3.6. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………..47 4. RUSSIA’S RELATIONS WITH MAIN ACTORS IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION……………………………………………………………………………….50 4.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………50 4.2. U.S.A……….………………………………………………………………51 4.3. China………………………………………………………………………..57 4.4. Japan ………………………………...……………………………………..62 4.5. India……..………………………………………………………………….68 4.6. South Korea……...…………………………………………………………74 4.7. Australia, New Zealand…………………………………………………….76 4.8. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos………………………………………………….77 4.9. Conclusion……………………………………………………...…………..80 5. RUSSIA’S INVOLVEMENT IN REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS………….82 5.1. Introduction………………………………………………………………....82 5.2. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)……………………………….82 5.3. Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN)……………………….90 ix 5.4. ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)……………………………………………..99 5.5. East Asia Summit (EAS)……………………………………………………102 5.6. ASEAN Defense Ministers-Plus Eight Meetings (ADMM)…………………105 5.7 RIC (Russia-India-China) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia-India-China-South Africa) Cooperation…………………………………………………………….....109 5.8. Non-Governmental Mechanisms……….……………………….…………..112 5.9. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………..113 6. CONCLUSION……………………………………..……………………………115 LIST OF REFERENCES..……………...……………………….………………. 122 APPENDIX………………………………………………………………………138 x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION In this thesis Russia’s policies in the Asia-Pacific Region in the post-cold war era will be examined. The period of 1992-2012 will be mainly covered while a historical perspective is summarily given. The research question of the thesis is what are the limitations to Russia’s claim to be a major power in the Asia-Pacific