SOMALIA Rain Watch April 25, 2009 FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for Somalia every dekad through the end of the current Gu (April-June) rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu rains to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is valid through April 30, 2009 and is produced in collaboration with USGS, the Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) Somalia, a number of other agencies, and several Somali NGOs. Progress of gu rains shows mixed performance. The performance of the gu rains during the second dekad of April (11 ‐20) has been mixed but largely poor (Figure 1). In particular, the progress of the season has been very slow and erratic in key pastoral areas of Nugaal, Sool, most of Sanaag, Bari, and parts of Togdheer regions in the north and northeast. In most of these regions, water shortages were reported. Substantial precipitation did fall in the northwest agropastral zone, parts of Hawd of Hargiesa, most of north Mudug, and Elafweyn district of Sanaag region. Other areas where moderate rainfall was received include Golis‐Guban, Sheikh and Odweyne districts of Togdheer regions, and the Saraar plains of upper Nugal Valley in Sanaag region. The rains have improved water and browse in those areas, attracting pastoralists from the neighboring rain‐deficit areas. In the drought affected central regions, sporadic, localized, light rains were reported later in the dekad in many areas while moderate rains fell in parts of the agropastoral areas of Eldheer, Haradheere, Elbuur, and Hobyo and Addun pastoral livelihood zone in Jariban district. Eldheer town received one day of heavy rain that led the death of to hundreds of weak animals due to cold weather and the strong hit of the rainfall. In those areas the rains are expected to have short term benefits in terms of improved browse and alleviated problems of water shortage. The southern agricultural regions of Bay, parts of Bakool, Shabelle, and the Hiran (Jalaqsi) received light to moderate rains during the second dekad of the month. Rains were in particularly good in sorghum growing areas of Bay, Bakool and parts of Lower Shabelle regions. Well distributed rains which improved crop and rangeland condition were also received in Middle Shabelle, except in the coastal plains, which still remain dry. However in Dinsor, Saakow, most of Barhdheere, Buale, Salagle, and most of the key grazing areas of Middle Juba region all the way to the border with Kenya, although some rains were reported during the last 24 hours, the progress of the gu rains was largely poor. Consequently, severe moisture stress and poor pasture and pcro germination were reported. A comparison between actual and normal rainfall for this time of the year shows that, thus far, rainfall received in these areas are below normal, leading to increasing concern of the prospect of the season by pastoral and agropastoral communities in those districts. Rain gauge data from Bardheere station recorded 24.5 mm in one rainy day, while Jalalaqsi and Jowhar stations recorded 34mm and 95mm of rainfall, respectively. Berdale, Baidoa and Qansahdhere stations of Bay region also recorded, 57mm, 77mm, and 91mm of rainfall, respectively. These rains are expected to alleviate the negative effects of the long dry Jilaal season. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite imagery shows current vegetation levels in most parts of the country are generally below normal (Figure 3) for this time of the year. This is due to erratic nature of the gu rains. The three day weather forecast extending through April 27 (Figure 4) indicates light rains of up to 10mm is likely in parts of the south and central regions. The rest of the country especially in the north and northeast will likely remain dry despite the fact that we were approaching the peak of the season. For more rain gauge data please contact [email protected] or visit http://www.faoswalim.org. FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET Washington Nairobi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +254 2 350523/24/25 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] Figure 1. Rainfall estimate (mm), Apr11-20, 2009 Figure 2: Rainfall anomaly March 22-April 24, 2009 Figure 3. NDVI Anomaly April 11-20 2009 Figure 4. Three day forecast valid up to Apr 27, 2008 Sources: FEWS NET/NOAA/ CPC FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET Washington Nairobi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +254 2 350523/24/25 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] .