High-Speed Rail Development Programme 2008/9 Principal Consultant Evaluation Methodology Final Report for Workstream 3 5 June 2009 Page 1 of 85 Contents CONTENTS...................................................................................................................................................................2 1 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................................4 1.1 THE STUDY ...............................................................................................................................................................4 1.2 THE OBJECTIVE OF WORKSTREAM 3: BUSINESS CASE METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................4 1.3 THE REPORT STRUCTURE .............................................................................................................................................5 2 ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK..................................................................................................................................6 2.1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................................................6 2.2 THE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................................................................6 2.3 POLICY TESTING ........................................................................................................................................................8 3 FORECASTING DEMAND .....................................................................................................................................10 3.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................10 3.2 UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET – DEMAND TODAY ........................................................................................................10 3.3 WHO WILL USE THE HSR (MODE CHOICE ).....................................................................................................................14 3.4 CAPTIVE AND INDUCED DEMAND ................................................................................................................................16 3.5 MODEL CALIBRATION ...............................................................................................................................................17 3.6 THE FUTURE ...........................................................................................................................................................18 4 ESTIMATING COST..............................................................................................................................................24 4.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................24 4.2 CAPITAL COSTS .......................................................................................................................................................24 4.3 OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS ........................................................................................................................41 4.4 PHASING ................................................................................................................................................................45 5 SOCIAL ECONOMIC APPRAISAL...........................................................................................................................46 5.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................46 5.2 ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................................................................................................46 5.3 SAFETY ..................................................................................................................................................................50 5.4 ECONOMY ..............................................................................................................................................................51 5.5 ACCESSIBILITY .........................................................................................................................................................53 5.6 INTEGRATION ..........................................................................................................................................................54 5.7 ESTIMATING BENEFITS TO USERS .................................................................................................................................56 5.8 ESTIMATING BENEFITS TO NON USERS ..........................................................................................................................58 6 WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS..............................................................................................................................62 6.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................62 6.2 LAND -USE IMPACT AND EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS ............................................................................................................62 6.3 QUANTIFYING WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS ..................................................................................................................64 7 FRAMEWORK OUTPUTS .....................................................................................................................................69 7.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................69 7.2 INDIVIDUAL SCENARIO METRICS .................................................................................................................................69 7.3 COMPARISON .........................................................................................................................................................78 COST OF A FOUR-TRACK HSL .....................................................................................................................................82 Page 2 of 85 1 ASSESSMENT OF THE COSTS GENERATED BY A FOUR -TRACK LINE ..........................................................................................82 2 GRADE ALIGNMENT .....................................................................................................................................................82 3 MAJOR STRUCTURES ....................................................................................................................................................84 Page 3 of 85 1 Introduction 1.1 The Study The Principal Consultant is required to develop a strategy for a UK high-speed rail network in five stages, with a formal report to be issued after each. Workstream 1 – Determine the starting point for the study by evaluating relevant work already completed elsewhere, including an open call for further relevant material; Workstream 2 – Determine the strategic choices to be made in defining the high-speed network using the principal categories such as national and local policy, target markets and technical considerations, in consultation with various stakeholders; Workstream 3 – Create and document assessment and appraisal methodologies through development of a strategic business case model, incorporating a ridership forecast model which can later be applied to route and network options; identify, at strategic level, the full economic benefits, assess capital costs, evaluate environmental impact, evaluate CO2 emissions; use these models to generate performance indicators for options; Workstream 4 – Evaluate corridor options by application of tools developed in Workstream 3, building on previous studies and identifying key constraints, to produce status reports and route development reports; Workstream 5 – Using output from all other Workstreams, define an overall network development strategy, including a preferred long-term network specification; phasing; the overall case for the national network based on benefits delivered; and the level of investment. This report describes the work undertaken in Workstream 3. 1.2 The objective of Workstream 3: Business Case methodology The objective of Workstream 3 is to develop a methodology to prepare a Business Case for a high speed rail network in accordance with government guidelines. It must enable selection of preferred options both at the corridor level and for an overall network in a consistent evidence based manner. It must also demonstrate the value of the proposed solution in terms of both quantified metrics such as benefit:cost ratios and unquantified elements that might include meeting stakeholder aspirations or environmental concerns. This report describes the framework for assessing the different options developed as part of a high speed line strategy in a consistent way. This framework consists of a number of different models (which work mainly in Excel) that together meet the objectives of the Workstream. For a limited number of areas, some judgement is also