C O R P O R A T I O N ALAN J. VICK AND MARK ASHBY Winning the Battle of the Airfields Seventy Years of RAND Analysis on Air Base Defense and Attack For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA793-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0661-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Tech. Sgt. Natasha Stannard/U.S. Air Force Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Air base defense and attack has been the subject of sustained research and analysis at the RAND Corporation for most of the history of the organization; RAND produced 264 reports on the topic between 1951 and November 2020. This report provides an overview of RAND’s work over these seven decades and seeks to describe RAND’s contributions (both in substance and analytical methods) and to identify enduring insights of interest to policymakers responsible for improving the resiliency of U.S. air bases in the face of modern threats. This report is a product of the RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) continuing program of self-initiated research. Support for this research was provided by the research and development provisions of PAF’s contract with the U.S. Air Force. The study described in this report was administered at the unit level within PAF. This research should be of interest to officials in the U.S. Air Force, other services, combatant commands, and the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as to those in the broader defense policy community. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air Force’s (DAF’s) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses, supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force. PAF provides DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with DAF in September 2020. The draft report, issued in September 2020, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xiii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of This Report ............................................................................................................................. 7 Research Approach ................................................................................................................................... 7 Organization of This Report ..................................................................................................................... 8 2. A Statistical Overview of RAND Research on Air Base Attack and Defense, 1951–2020 ....... 9 Publication Rate and Series Type ............................................................................................................. 9 Central Themes ....................................................................................................................................... 11 3. Nuclear Threats to U.S. Air Force Bases in the United States and Europe, 1950–1959 .......... 16 Strategic Environment ............................................................................................................................ 16 Overview of RAND Research on Air Base Defense and Attack During This Period ............................ 18 A Sampling of Reports ........................................................................................................................... 20 RAND Contributions .............................................................................................................................. 23 4. A Shift Toward Conventional and Offensive Operations, 1960–1969 ..................................... 27 Strategic Environment ............................................................................................................................ 27 Overview of RAND Research on Air Base Defense and Attack During This Period ............................ 31 A Sampling of Reports ........................................................................................................................... 35 RAND Contributions .............................................................................................................................. 39 5. Conventional Warfare in Central Europe, 1970–1989 ............................................................. 42 Strategic Environment ............................................................................................................................ 42 Overview of RAND Research on Air Base Defense and Attack During This Period ............................ 47 A Sampling of Reports ........................................................................................................................... 49 RAND Contributions .............................................................................................................................. 51 6. Era of Rear Area Sanctuary for the U.S. Air Force, 1990–2009 .............................................. 54 Strategic Environment ............................................................................................................................ 54 Overview of RAND Research on Air Base Defense and Attack: 1990–2009 ........................................ 59 A Sampling of Reports ........................................................................................................................... 62 RAND Contributions .............................................................................................................................. 65 7. Anti-Access Threat to U.S. Bases Reinvigorates Analysis of Air Base Defense, 2010–2020............................................................................................................................... 68 Strategic Environment ............................................................................................................................ 68 iv Overview of RAND Research on Air Base Defense and Attack During This Period ............................ 69 A Sampling of Reports ........................................................................................................................... 73 RAND Contributions .............................................................................................................................. 77 8. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 80 Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................... 81 Looking to the Future ............................................................................................................................. 84 Appendix A. Statistics on Report Authors and