Assessment Report: Social Assessment of Section 3 of the A465 Heads of the Valleys Road: Brynmawr to Tredegar Karen Lucas, Ian Philips, John Nellthorp, Louise Reardon, James Laird, Ersilia Verlinghieri Institute for Transport Studies Project funded by: Welsh Government 1 | P a g e INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES DOCUMENT CONTROL INFORMATION Social Assessment Title Section 3 of the A465 Heads of the Valleys Road: Brynmawr to Tredegar Authors Karen Lucas, Ian Philips, John Nellthorp, Louise Reardon, James Laird, Ersilia Verlinghieri Editor Ian Philips Version Number Date June 2016 Distribution ITS Availability ITS File A465 Full Social Assessment Report.docx Signature 2 | P a g e Contents 1 Introduction.......................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Study aim ...................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Accompanying documents ............................................................................ 6 2 Overview of methodology .................................................................................... 7 3 Context ................................................................................................................ 9 3.1 The A465 strategic transport corridor............................................................ 9 3.2 A465 Section 3 scheme description............................................................ 11 3.2.1 New A465 Section 3 ............................................................................. 11 3.2.2 Former A465......................................................................................... 12 3.2.3 Footways and cycleways...................................................................... 13 3.3 Scheme objectives...................................................................................... 13 3.4 Defining the study area ............................................................................... 14 3.5 Community profile of the study area............................................................ 15 3.6 Population profile of the study areas........................................................... 16 4 Domains of interest............................................................................................ 18 4.1 Scoping the impact domains ....................................................................... 18 4.2 Determining the disaggregation for distributional analysis .......................... 21 5 Social Assessment ............................................................................................ 22 5.1 Local user benefits (and local regeneration) ............................................... 22 5.1.1 Overview of local user benefits (and local regeneration) impacts......... 22 5.1.2 Focus group findings local user benefits............................................... 23 5.2 Accessibility................................................................................................. 24 5.2.1 Overview of accessibility impacts ......................................................... 24 5.2.2 Evidence on accessibility derived from appraisal documents............... 25 5.2.3 Further accessibility analysis carried out for this assessment .............. 26 5.3 Affordability ................................................................................................. 34 3 | P a g e 5.3.1 Overview of affordability impacts.......................................................... 34 5.3.2 Secondary data analysis on affordability .............................................. 35 5.3.3 Focus group findings on affordability.................................................... 35 5.4 Safety and personal security....................................................................... 36 5.4.1 Overview of accidents impacts ............................................................. 36 5.4.2 Accident analysis evidence from the appraisal process ....................... 37 5.4.3 STATS 19 accident mapping................................................................ 38 5.4.4 Focus group comments on safety and security .................................... 39 5.5 Air Quality.................................................................................................... 43 5.5.1 Overview of air quality impacts............................................................. 43 5.5.2 Mapping local displacement of vehicle emissions ................................ 45 5.6 Noise........................................................................................................... 47 5.6.1 Overview of noise impacts.................................................................... 47 5.6.2 Analysis of noise derived from appraisal documents............................ 47 5.6.3 Focus group findings on noise.............................................................. 47 5.7 Severance................................................................................................... 48 5.7.1 Overview of severance impacts............................................................ 48 5.7.2 Evidence on severance derived from appraisal documents.................. 48 5.7.3 Micro level analysis of severance at the Nant-y-Bwch roundabout....... 49 5.8 Additional social issues which emerged during the qualitative fieldwork relevant to assessment of social impacts.............................................................. 52 5.8.1 Local user benefits of the A465 corridor once complete....................... 52 5.8.2 Local regeneration benefits of the A465 corridor once complete.......... 52 5.8.3 Local community engagement process. ............................................... 53 5.8.4 Construction disruption......................................................................... 53 6 Conclusions of the study.................................................................................... 55 6.1 Conclusions of the social assessment ........................................................ 55 4 | P a g e 6.2 Policy recommendations ............................................................................. 57 6.3 Links to broader policy agenda and further development of social assessment........................................................................................................... 59 7 Methodological conclusions and recommendations on the new approach to social assessment.................................................................................................... 58 5 | P a g e 1 Introduction 1.1 Study aim The aim of this report is to provide a social assessment of the impacts of Section 3 of the A465 Heads of the Valleys Road: Brynmawr to Tredegar, using a mixed methods approach which adapts and builds on the UK WebTAG appraisal guidance units 4.1 and 4.2. We define social assessment in this document as a study of the social and distributional impacts which estimate the impacts of the implemented scheme at the point of opening rather than a detailed ex-ante appraisal. In the absence of detailed ex-ante appraisal, this report sets a baseline from which future evaluation may be conducted. This is the first application of a new mixed methods approach to social assessment of the impacts of transport infrastructure investment in the UK. It was commissioned by the Welsh Government in specific recognition of the need for improved guidance in this area of project delivery. The results reported here, along with its accompanying annexes, also contribute to greater understanding of social and distributional impacts, which builds upon and extends the current quantitative approach in WelTAG / WebTAG. This will hopefully lead to better understanding of the wider social effects of transport projects in order to inform future considerations as to how new transport schemes affect wellbeing. 1.2 Accompanying documents This report has the following accompanying sister documents Summary Report – a short overview of this report focusing on its main findings. Technical Annex – further technical data, maps and detailed assessment tables relating to the quantitative analyses which inform this assessment report. Methodology Annex- describes the development of a methodology for conducting mixed methods social assessments of transport schemes. Focus Group Report – detailed narrative commentary of qualitative data gathered in this study. 6 | P a g e 2 Overview of methodology This chapter provides a brief summary of the methods used in the social assessment study. The accompanying Methodology Annex provides a more detailed account of the rationale for the methods used, their implementation and a discussion of their application. The methodology designed for the evaluation of the social impacts of the A465 Section 3 involved the following key stages: Screen the impacts of the A465 Section 3 works and identify those impacts with a significant social impact on groups of people. Review the appraisal documents to identify forecast data relevant to social impacts of the scheme (the previous appraisal that was conducted mainly focused on economic and environmental aspects with only a limited range of social indicators included). Follow and adapt where necessary the appraisal techniques in WelTAG guidance (these techniques primarily used quantitative analysis and GIS tools for spatial analysis). Assess the conditions post opening with the appraisal work using the same tools. Supplement this with qualitative analysis work