Retail 2012Study Update Council District Dover Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 QA Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 Issue/Revision: Draft (V2) Final Date: 17 August 2012 2 November 2012 Comments: Prepared by: Elizabeth Milimuka Elizabeth Milimuka Signature: Authorised by: Dr. Steven Norris Dr. Steven Norris Signature: File Reference: 708-0107 708-0107 September 2012 ii Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 7 AIMS & OBJECTIVES 7 REPORT STRUCTURE 8 2.0 PLANNNING POLICY CONTEXT 10 NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK (NPPF) 10 The Presumption in Favour of Sustainable Development 10 Core Planning Principles 11 Plan-Making 12 Decision-Taking 14 Delivering Sustainable Development – Ensuring the Vitality of Centres 15 SOUTH EAST OF ENGLAND REGIONAL SPATIAL STRATEGY 2009 17 LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 18 ‘Saved’ Policies of the Local Plan (2002) 18 Core Strategy (2010) 19 Development Management Policies (2010) 22 Proposals Map 22 EMERGING POLICY 22 SUMMARY 23 3.0 THE CHANGING RETAIL AND URBAN LANDSCAPE 25 ECONOMIC TRENDS & CONSUMER SPENDING 25 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 26 RETAIL OCCUPANCY TRENDS 26 TOWN CENTRES 27 INTERNET SHOPPING 28 FUTURE TRENDS 28 September 2012 iii Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 4.0 STUDY AREA – DEFINITION & MARKET SHARES 30 THE STUDY AREA 30 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 31 MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 31 Internet 32 Convenience Goods 32 Comparison Goods 36 CHANGES IN MARKET SHARES OVER TIME 42 SUMMARY 44 5.0 ECONOMIC CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 46 THE CREAT E CAPACITY MODEL 46 POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES 48 Study Area Population 48 Average Expenditure Levels (2012) 48 Expenditure Growth (2012 – 2031) 49 ‘BASELINE’ TURNOVER ASSESSMENT 50 CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY FORECAST 50 Turnover Performance 50 Planned Housing Growth 52 Retail Commitments & Strategic Allocations 53 Capacity for New Convenience Floorspace 53 COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 55 Turnover Performance 55 Planned Housing Growth 56 Retail Commitments & Strategic Allocations 57 Capacity for New Comparison Floorspace 57 SUMMARY 59 6.0 DESIRED IMPROVEMENTS TO THE MAIN CENTRES 61 iv September 2012 Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 Dover Sub-Regional Centre 61 Deal District Centre 62 Sandwich Rural Service Centre 64 SUMMARY 66 7.0 BOUNDARY DEFINITIONS 67 DOVER 68 Convenience Goods 69 Comparison Goods 69 Services 70 Vacancy Levels 70 Recommendations 70 DEAL 71 Convenience Goods 72 Comparison Goods 72 Services 73 Vacancy Levels 73 Recommendations 73 SANDWICH 73 Convenience Goods 74 Comparison Goods 75 Services 75 Vacancy Levels 75 Recommendations 75 OTHER CENTRES AND SETTLEMENTS 75 SUMMARY 76 8.0 GLOSSARY OF TERMS 78 APPENDIX 1: STUDY AREA APPENDIX 2: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY – QUESTIONNAIRE & METHODOLOGY September 2012 v Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 APPENDIX 3: GOAD CENTRE REPORTS FOR DOVER, DEAL AND SANDWICH APPENDIX 4: CONVENIENCE GOODS - MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS APPENDIX 5: COMPARISON GOODS - MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS APPENDIX 6: BASELINE CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 7: BASELINE COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY ASSESSSMENT vi September 2012 Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Strategic Perspectives (SP) was commissioned by Dover District Council in May 2012 to produce an updated Retail Study for the District, taking into account and updating the previous 2007 Retail Need Assessment Study (RNAS) prepared by Kent County Council and various updates in 2007 and 2008. This study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance. It specifically takes into account the advice set out in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2012. The study approach has also been informed by other key material considerations, including the Practice Guidance on Need, Impact and the Sequential Approach (the ‘ Practice Guidance’ ). The study is informed by a combination of desk-top and primary research including • the commissioning of a household telephone interview survey (HTIS) to help establish current shopping patterns and expenditure; • an assessment of existing retail provision in the District; • a detailed market share analysis of convenience and comparison goods expenditure; and • an economic/quantitative capacity assessment for both convenience goods and comparison goods floorspace up to 2026 (and 2031). In terms of current shopping patterns for convenience goods (food), the survey evidence shows that all the District’s main centres and stores are retaining a relatively high proportion (76.3%) of shopping trips and expenditure across the study area. There is a particularly high retention rate in Dover (94.7%, of which 2% and 83% are accounted for by edge- and out-of-centre facilities respectively) and Deal (94.7%, of which 62% and 2% are accounted for by edge and out of centre facilities respectively) defined primary catchment areas (PCAs). Sandwich retains less convenience goods expenditure (65.1%) and this is mainly due to the attraction of convenience (and comparison goods) shopping provision in Westwood Cross, Canterbury and Folkestone. There is also a reasonable district-wide retention rate in Zone 7 (47.0%) and Zone 8 (26.6%), bearing in mind the attraction and proximity of facilities outside of the District. Compared to the results of the 2007 RNAS, the 2012 market share assessment shows that the overall retention of convenience goods shopping in the District has increased from 73.7% in 2007 to 76.3% in 2012. For comparison goods the 2012 market share assessment shows that 44.5% of all expenditure is retained by stores and centres within the District. This is an improvement from the 38.2% retention rate (for both core comparison and bulky goods) recorded in 2007. Within Dover’s PCA, “in centre” shops and facilities attract the majority of comparison goods expenditure across different categories of comparison goods expenditure. “In centre” destinations also attract a reasonable share of comparison goods expenditure across all other zones in the study area (ranging from 3.7% in Zone 6 to 16.6% in Zone 3) bearing in mind the strong attraction of September 2012 Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 competing facilities outside of the District such as Canterbury. In contrast “out of centre” destinations in Dover account for 13.4% of all comparison goods expenditure across the study area and only achieve a higher market share than the town centre in the sub-categories of DIY, gardening and CDs/DVDs. Deal and Sandwich centres account for 11.6% and 1.7% of total comparison goods respectively across the study area as a whole. Sandwich Rural Service Centre has a limited role in retaining comparison goods expenditure, and accounts for less than 2% of all comparison goods expenditure across the study area. This is consistent with its role within the retail hierarchy. Overall, comparison goods expenditure attracted to centres and stores outside of the District is mostly captured by Canterbury (27.2%), Westwood Cross (12.4%) and Folkestone (10.4%). As expected, the ‘leakage’ of shopping trips and expenditure is higher around the periphery of the study area (particularly in Zones 6-8). With regards to internet spending, the household survey shows that the internet accounted for roughly 3.7% of combined convenience goods expenditure in 2012. This is similar to the conclusions of the 2007 study. For comparison goods, the 2012 HTIS indicates that approximately 7.1% of comparison goods expenditure across the study area can be attributed to the internet. Whilst the District’s smaller centres have a much more limited draw for both main food and comparison goods shopping, they are important destinations for more frequent top-up food shopping and meeting the day-to-day needs of their local catchment populations. The results of the market share analysis were used to inform the retail capacity assessments for both convenience and comparison goods floorspace. These assessments are informed by and take into account various key assumptions and forecasts including, inter alia , • baseline population levels and population growth forecasts; • expenditure per capita levels and forecasts; • an allowance for special forms of trading (including Internet shopping); • existing floorspace and ‘benchmark’ turnover levels; • an allowance for the growth in floorspace ‘productivity’; • planned housing growth; and • existing retail commitments and strategic allocations. The table below summarises the results of the convenience goods capacity assessment. 2 September 2012 Dover District Council Retail Study Update 2012 Taking into account both existing commitments and strategic allocations, the updated convenience goods retail assessment forecasts no capacity for new retail floorspace across the District up to 2026. This is explained by the significant strategic allocations identified by the local planning authority in the Dover Urban Area. Notwithstanding this, taking into account strategic allocations there is District wide capacity for 1,189 sqm (net) of new “superstore format” convenience floorspace by 2031. To be consistent with the Core Strategy, the study distributes convenience floorspace requirements between Dover, Deal/Sandwich and elsewhere in the District according to a constant market share approach. This more detailed analysis confirms that there is no capacity for new convenience goods retail floorspace in Dover up to 2031 over and above existing planned