View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2005-09 How will external powers affect Korean reunification? Tovar, Suzanne M. Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/10050 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS HOW WILL EXTERNAL POWERS AFFECT KOREAN REUNIFICATION? by Suzanne M. Tovar September 2005 Thesis Advisor: Edward A. Olsen Second Reader: Lyman H. Miller Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2005 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: How Will External Powers Affect Korean 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Reunification? 6. AUTHOR(S) Suzanne M. Tovar 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING ADDRESS(ES) AGENCY REPORT NUMBER N/A 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The Korean peninsula has been a focus of contention since the nineteenth century. Following the division of the peninsula after World War II, the issue of when, and how, Korea will be reunified has been a subject of intense interest, one that has been encouraged by the end of the Cold War, the economic weakness of North Korea, and North Korea’s decision to pursue a nuclear option. Although war failed to unify the peninsula in 1950-1953, the fear is that a desperate communist regime may again attempt to unify the peninsula by force. A second scenario for unification envisions the implosion of a debilitated regime in the North. Finally, a peaceful reunification through diplomacy constitutes a third scenario. Although reunification is intensely desired by the Korean people, the United States, the PRC, Japan, and Russia prefer a continuation of the status quo. This thesis examines the various scenarios for Korean reunification and their implications for the international relations in Northeastern Asia. It concludes that the collapse of the political system in the North Korean state will initiate reunification. As a result of this, China will play the greatest role upon reunification and therefore have a superior influence over the peninsula. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Korea, North Korea, South Korea, Korean peninsula, reunification, reunification, United States, PAGES 127 Russia, China, Japan, Sunshine Policy, Six party talks, Beijing talks, war, collapse, diplomatic reunification, Kim Jong-il 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. HOW WILL EXTERNAL POWERS AFFECT KOREAN REUNIFICATION? Suzanne M. Tovar Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1999 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2005 Author: Suzanne M. Tovar Approved by: Edward A. Olsen Thesis Advisor Lyman H. Miller Second Reader Douglas Porch Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The Korean peninsula has been a focus of contention since the nineteenth century. Following the division of the peninsula after World War II, the issue of when, and how, Korea will be reunified has been a subject of intense interest, one that has been encouraged of late by the end of the Cold War, the extreme economic weakness of North Korea, and the decision by the North to pursue a nuclear option. Although war failed to unify the peninsula in 1950-1953, the fear is that a desperate communist regime may once again attempt to unify the peninsula by force. A second scenario for unification envisions the implosion of an economically debilitated regime in the North. Finally, a peaceful reunification through diplomacy constitutes a third scenario. The dilemma is that, although reunification is intensely desired by the Korean people, the United States, the PRC, Japan, and Russia prefer a continuation of the status quo. The attitude of Korea’s neighbors and strategic partners is important especially because reunification under whatever scenario will undoubtedly require support, both diplomatic and economic of the surrounding powers. This thesis examines the various scenarios for Korean reunification and their implications for the international relations in Northeastern Asia. It concludes that the collapse of the political system in the North Korean state will initiate reunification. As a result of this, China will play the greatest role upon reunification and therefore have a superior influence over the peninsula. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. KOREAN REUNIFICATION............................................................................ 1 A. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................. 1 B. POSSIBLE REUNIFICATION SCENARIOS ........................................ 3 1. Reunification as a Result of War ............................................ 3 2. Reunification as a Result of the DPRK’s Collapse ............... 4 3. Reunification as a Result of Inter-Korean or Multilateral Diplomacy................................................................................. 7 II. CAN JAPAN OVERCOME HISTORY TO REGAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA........................................................................... 9 A. JAPANESE AND KOREAN RELATIONS DURING THE COLONIAL PERIOD............................................................................ 9 B. HISTORY AFTER KOREA’S DIVISION............................................. 12 C. REUNIFICATION AS A RESULT OF WAR ....................................... 16 1. Japanese Reaction to Aggression ....................................... 16 2. Options for Japan .................................................................. 17 3. Effects on Japan .................................................................... 17 D. REUNIFICATION AS A RESULT OF THE DPRK’S COLLAPSE...... 19 1. Options for Japan .................................................................. 19 2. Effects on Japan .................................................................... 20 E. REUNIFICATION AS A RESULT OF INTER-KOREAN OR MULTILATERAL DIPLOMACY ......................................................... 20 1. Options for Japan .................................................................. 20 2. Effects on Japan .................................................................... 22 F. NATIONAL OPTIONS FOR JAPAN .................................................. 23 1. Factors Which Will Shape a Future Korea........................... 23 2. Best Case Scenario for Japan .............................................. 24 3. Worst Case Scenario for Japan............................................ 25 4. Policy Approaches ................................................................ 26 III. CAN CHINA REGAIN THEIR “LITTLE BROTHER” RELATIONSHIP WITH A REUNIFIED KOREA? ..................................................................... 29 A. BACKGROUND AND HISTORY........................................................ 29 B. HISTORY AFTER KOREA’S DIVISION............................................. 30 C. REUNIFICATION AS A RESULT OF WAR ....................................... 35 1. Chinese Reaction to Aggression.......................................... 35 2. Options for China .................................................................. 35 3. Effects on China .................................................................... 36 D. REUNIFICATION AS A RESULT OF THE DPRK’S COLLAPSE...... 38 1. Options for China .................................................................. 38 2. Effects on China .................................................................... 39 vii E. REUNIFICATION AS A RESULT OF INTER-KOREAN OR MULTILATERAL DIPLOMACY ........................................................