The Benefits of Investing in Electricity Transmission A Case Study of Northern Europe Jonas Teusch Arno Behrens Christian Egenhofer January 2012 Abstract Electricity trading can bring down the costs of the EU’s transition to a competitive low-carbon economy, in particular by facilitating the integration of renewable energy from variable sources. Yet insufficient grid infrastructure and regulatory obstacles prevent the trading potential from being fully realised in northern Europe. While many interconnector projects are under development, various barriers are precluding the grid rollout from taking place on time. The European Commission’s energy infrastructure package is an important step forward to overcome these barriers. But the scale and urgency of the infrastructure challenge call for significant further progress. This study was funded by Dong Energy, Fortum, Statkraft and Vattenfall. The authors would like to extend special thanks to officials and representatives from the European Commission, ENTSO-E, ACER, BNetzA, the Swedish Markets Inspectorate and EWEA for their valuable assistance and support. The preliminary results of this study were discussed at a stakeholder workshop held at CEPS on 28 September 2011; the main results were debated by a high-level panel on 28 November 2011. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed are attributable only to the authors in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which they are associated. ISBN 978-94-6138-161-3 Available for free downloading from the CEPS website (http://www.ceps.eu) ©CEPS, 2012 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 7 2. Conceptualising the benefits of an expansion in transmission ........................................................ 8 2.1 Contribution to the EU’s policy goals ...................................................................................... 8 2.2 Effects on relevant stakeholders ............................................................................................ 10 2.3 Alternatives to transmission expansion .................................................................................. 11 3. Demand- and supply-side developments in northern Europe ........................................................ 11 3.1 Context ................................................................................................................................... 12 3.2 The Nordic electricity market ................................................................................................ 13 3.3 Growth of Nordic electricity demand .................................................................................... 13 3.4 Current Nordic supply situation ............................................................................................. 14 3.5 RES-E deployment in the Nordic countries ........................................................................... 15 3.6 The future Nordic generation mix .......................................................................................... 17 3.7 Estimates of Nordic excess capacity ...................................................................................... 17 3.8 Market developments in other northern European countries ................................................. 18 4. Potential for electricity trading in northern Europe ....................................................................... 19 4.1 Geographically-specific benefits ............................................................................................ 19 4.2 Limitations in the current interconnection capacity ............................................................... 20 4.3 Interconnector developments ................................................................................................. 21 4.4 Internal congestion ................................................................................................................. 23 4.5 Technological improvement to existing lines ........................................................................ 23 4.6 Regulatory challenges ............................................................................................................ 23 5. Barriers to investment in transmission .......................................................................................... 24 5.1 Economic and financial barriers ............................................................................................ 24 5.2 Political and administrative barriers ...................................................................................... 25 5.3 Technical barriers ................................................................................................................... 26 6. Overcoming the barriers ................................................................................................................ 26 6.1 Key corridors for northern Europe – Projects of common interest ........................................ 26 6.2 Towards a coordinated policy on European energy? ............................................................. 28 7. Policy conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 28 References ............................................................................................................................................. 31 Appendices ............................................................................................................................................ 35 Appendix 1. Capacity and generation in the Nordic countries .......................................................... 35 Appendix 2. Estimates of Nordic electricity exports ......................................................................... 36 Appendix 3. Market developments in other northern European countries ........................................ 40 Appendix 4. Wind power correlation in northern Europe ................................................................. 43 Appendix 5. Estimates of future price differentials ........................................................................... 44 Appendix 6. Selected interconnector projects in northern Europe .................................................... 46 Appendix 7. Financing the transmission infrastructure ..................................................................... 47 List of Figures Figure 1. Main benefits of transmission expansion grouped according to the dimension of EU energy policy ......................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2. EU electricity generation by IEA scenario .......................................................................... 12 Figure 3. Share of electricity in total energy demand in the EU (%) .................................................. 12 Figure 4. Total yearly electricity demand in northern Europe (TWh) ................................................ 13 Figure 5. Nordic net generation in 2010 (TWh) ................................................................................. 15 List of Tables Table 1. Comparison of forecasts for electricity demand (TWh) ...................................................... 14 Table 2. Nordic NREAP analysis ...................................................................................................... 16 Table 3. Existing interconnectors (Nordic countries to other markets) ............................................. 20 Table 4. Selected, planned interconnector projects between Nordic and other northern European countries .............................................................................................................................. 22 Table 5. Installed capacity of electricity generation plants and power station generation in the Nordic countries (2010) ....................................................................................................... 35 Table 6 Estimates of the Nordic export potential. ............................................................................ 37 Table 7. Variable RES-E capacity and projected peak demand in 2020 (MW) ................................ 40 Table 8. Correlation coefficients between countries using simulated wind-power time series for the OffshoreGrid 2030 wind-power scenario (includes both on- and offshore wind) ......... 43 Table 9. Power prices in different P&T scenarios and countries (€ per MW) .................................. 44 Table 10. Range of price differentials in 2030 after different design realisations (base case, direct, hub-to-hub and meshed) of the direct design approach ....................................................... 45 Table 11. Selected interconnector projects in northern Europe. .......................................................... 46 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ACER Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators CEER Council of European Energy Regulators ECF European Climate Foundation ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity ERGEG European Regulators’ Group for Electricity and Gas ETS Emissions Trading System GFMET German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology IEA International