Risø Risø National Laboratory October 2005 Energy Report Risø Energy Report 4 4 The Future Energy System – Distributed Production and Use Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Risø Energy Report 4 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen, Risø National Laboratory Prof. Dr.ir. William D’haeseleer, University of Leuven, Belgium Risø Reviewed by Director Stephen Gehl, EPRI, USA Technical Director Fernando Sánchez Sudón, CENER, Spain National Design: Brandpunkt a|s Printing: Scanprint a|s Laboratory Risø-R-1534 (EN) Risø-R-1534 (EN) ISBN 87-550-3472-1 ISBN 87-550-3472-1 ISBN 87-550-3474-8 (Internet) ISBN 87-550-3474-8 (Internet) ISSN 0106-2840 ISSN 0106-2840 13294 Risø #4 Omslag.indd 1 21/10/05 10:03:55 Risø Risø National Laboratory October 2005 Energy Report Risø Energy Report 4 4 The Future Energy System – Distributed Production and Use Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Risø Energy Report 4 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen, Risø National Laboratory Prof. Dr.ir. William D’haeseleer, University of Leuven, Belgium Risø Reviewed by Director Stephen Gehl, EPRI, USA Technical Director Fernando Sánchez Sudón, CENER, Spain National Design: Brandpunkt a|s Printing: Scanprint a|s Laboratory Risø-R-1534 (EN) Risø-R-1534 (EN) ISBN 87-550-3472-1 ISBN 87-550-3472-1 ISBN 87-550-3474-8 (Internet) ISBN 87-550-3474-8 (Internet) ISSN 0106-2840 ISSN 0106-2840 13294 Risø #4 Omslag.indd 1 21/10/05 10:03:55 Risø Energy Report 4 The Future Energy System – Distributed Production and Use Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Reviewed by Prof. Dr.ir. William D’haeseleer, University of Leuven, Belgium Director Stephen Gehl, EPRI, USA Technical Director Fernando Sánchez Sudón, CENER, Spain 13294 Energy Report #4-v7.indd 1 27/10/05 12:09:04 2 Risø Energy Report 4 Section 0 1. PREFACE 3 2. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5 3. INTERNATIONAL TRENDS AND SCENARIOS FOR FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEMS 7 4. DENMARK IN A EUROPEAN MARKET 13 5. DISTRIBUTED GENERATION 21 6. EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS 29 7. FLEXIBILITY, STABILITY AND SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY 37 8. INTERACTION BETWEEN SUPPLY AND END-USE 43 9. SYSTEM CONTROL AND COMMUNICATION 49 10. SUPPLY TECHNOLOGIES IN THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM 53 Index 57 13294 Energy Report #4-v7.indd 2 27/10/05 12:09:04 Risø Energy Report 4 Preface 3 1 Preface The coming decades will bring big changes in energy as those used for natural gas, electricity, district heating systems throughout the world. The systems are expected and hydrogen. The focus is on industrialised countries, to change from central power plants producing electricity but the report also deals with specific points relevant to and maybe heat for the customers to a combination of developing countries, such as isolated energy systems. central units and a variety of distributed units such as The transport sector is discussed only in the context of its renewable energy technologies or fuel cells. Furthermore use of energy supplied through the various grids. the following developments are expected: Individual chapters of the report have been written by • closer link between supply and end-use Risø staff members and leading Danish and international • closer link between the various energy carriers distrib- experts. The report is based on internationally recognised uted through grids such as electricity, heat, natural gas scientific material, and is fully referenced and refereed by and maybe hydrogen in the future an international panel of independent experts. Informa- • increased energy trade across national borders tion on current developments is taken from the most up-to-date and authoritative sources available. Risø Energy Report 4 is the fourth in a series of reports Our target groups are colleagues, collaborating partners, covering energy issues at global, regional and national customers, funding organisations, the Danish govern- levels. This report covers the future of energy systems ment and international organisations including the over the next 20–30 years. It deals with sustainable European Union, the International Energy Agency and energy in general, but pays special attention to system the United Nations. aspects and the distribution of energy through grids such 13294 Energy Report #4-v7.indd 3 27/10/05 12:09:04 13294 Energy Report #4-v7.indd 4 27/10/05 12:09:04 Risø Energy Report 4 Summary, conclusions and recommendations 5 2 Summary, conclusions and recommendations HANS LARSEN AND LEIF SØNDERBERG PETERSEN, RISØ NATIONAL LABORATORY, DENMARK Summary pricing and other demand-led methods of balancing The world is facing major challenges in providing energy supply and demand. services to meet the future needs of the developed world Energy carriers such as hydrogen and ethanol may and the growing needs of developing countries. These become important as interface for renewable energy challenges are exacerbated by the need to provide energy sources to mobile users. About 20% of global primary services with due respect to economic growth, sustain- energy is currently used for transport, and this fraction ability and security of supply. is increasing. Today, the world’s energy system is based mainly on It is possible to reduce end-use energy consumption by oil, gas and coal, which together supply around 80% 20-50% over a twenty-year period through efficiency of our primary energy. Only around 0.5% of primary improvements. energy comes from renewable sources such as wind, solar and geothermal. Despite the rapid development of new Conclusions energy technologies, the world will continue to depend Global energy challenges require new long-term solu- on fossil fuels for several decades to come - and global tions, such as future energy systems based on renewable primary energy demand is forecasted to grow by 60% and other non-fossil sources, and more energy efficient between 2002 and 2030. end-use. Closer links are required between electricity, The expected post Kyoto targets call for significant CO2 heat and other energy carriers, including links to the reductions, increasing the demand to decouple the energy transport sector and the future use of biofuels and and transport systems from fossil fuels. There is a strong hydrogen. There is also a need for closer links between need for closer links between electricity, heat and other supply and end-use. A possible and quite promising energy carriers, including links to the transport sector. solution may be to base future energy systems on more On a national scale Denmark has three main charac- distributed production and use. Such a system should teristics. Firstly, it has a diverse and distributed energy have the following characteristics: system based on the power grid, the district heating grid and the natural gas grid. Secondly, renewable energy, • Increased robustness through decentralisation, allowing especially wind power, plays an increasingly important segments of the grid to be operated autonomously. role in the Danish energy system. Thirdly, Denmark’s • Distributed production combined with intelligent end geographical location allows it to act as a buffer between use. the energy systems of the European continent and the • New information and communication technologies Nordic countries. (ICTs) to provide system control that is distributed, Energy systems can be made more robust by decentral- self-organising and self-healing. ising both power generation and control. Distributed • Utilise developments in ITC to create control systems generation (DG) is characterised by a variety of energy that are distributed and with a higher level of intel- production technologies integrated into the electricity ligence. supply system, and the ability of different segments of • Exploitation of the potential to reduce end-use energy the grid to operate autonomously. The use of a more consumption by 20–50% over a twenty-year period distributed power generation system would be an impor- through efficiency improvements such as “passive” tant element in the protection of the consumers against houses and new lighting technologies. power interruptions and blackouts, whether caused by technical faults, natural disasters or terrorism. Seen as a whole, many of the necessary elements in a In an electricity supply system containing a large propor- development towards distributed systems are available tion of distributed small-scale generating units, these now, the future task lies in combining these elements units need to play their part in providing system services and implement them in the energy system. such as stability, security of supply and power quality. This places new requirements for control and regula- Recommendations tion on the generating units, the communication links The Danish energy system is to a large extent diversi- between the units and the system as a whole. It is likely fied and distributed and renewable energy technolo- in the future that many consumers will have intelligent gies play an increasingly important role. This offers the energy management systems based on two-way commu- possibility to become an international key player in the nication with energy suppliers. This will facilitate online development of future energy systems. Danish research 13294 Energy Report #4-v7.indd 5 27/10/05 12:09:04 6 Risø Energy Report 4 Summary, conclusions and recommendations 2 Simulation tools for DG systems Small hydropower Micro-CHP for individual households Combined heat and power fuel cells Prediction of wind power and inputs from other DG Intelligent self-healing