Station Usage and Demand Forecasts for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations Final Report August 2010 Prepared for: Prepared by: Department for Transport Steer Davies Gleave Great Minster House 28-32 Upper Ground 76 Marsham Street London SE1 9PD London SW1P 4DR +44 (0)20 7910 5000 www.steerdaviesgleave.com Final Report CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... I 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 2 COLLATION OF FORECASTS AND CATEGORISATION OF STATIONS ....................... 3 Introduction ......................................................................................... 3 Data Collation ...................................................................................... 4 Station Categorisation ............................................................................ 6 3 REVIEW OF DEMAND FORECASTS FOR NEW STATIONS ....................................11 Introduction ........................................................................................ 11 Structure of Framework Comparison Table ................................................... 11 Review Findings ................................................................................... 12 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................ 24 4 INVESTIGATION OF POTENTIAL DEMAND ABSTRACTION ..................................27 Introduction ........................................................................................ 27 Methodology ....................................................................................... 27 Phase 1 Analysis and Findings ................................................................... 29 Phase 2 Analysis and Findings ................................................................... 32 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................ 38 5 BACKCASTING DEMAND FORECASTS FOR STATIONS .......................................39 Introduction ........................................................................................ 39 Aylesbury Vale Parkway Backcasting........................................................... 39 Liverpool South Parkway Backcasting ......................................................... 41 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................ 43 6 ANALYSIS OF DEMAND PRODUCED BY AND ATTRACTED TO NEW STATIONS ..........45 Introduction ........................................................................................ 45 Relative Importance of Trips Produced by and Attracted to the New Station .......... 46 Relative Concentration of Trips Produced by and Attracted to the New Station ....... 46 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................ 50 7 ANALYSIS OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FACTORS IN TRIP RATE COMPARISONS .........51 Introduction ........................................................................................ 51 Methodology ....................................................................................... 51 Analysis of Resulting Trip Rates ................................................................ 53 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................ 55 8 PREPARATION OF DEMAND FORECASTS USING A SINGLE MODEL APPROACH .........57 Contents Final Report Introduction ....................................................................................... 57 Methodology ....................................................................................... 57 Demand Forecasts ................................................................................ 68 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................ 68 9 RECOMMENDED GUIDANCE FOR THE PREPARATION OF DEMAND FORECASTS FOR NEW STATIONS ...................................................................................71 Introduction ....................................................................................... 71 Recommended Guidance ........................................................................ 71 10 GUIDANCE ON UNDERTAKING PRIMARY RESEARCH TO SUPPORT DEMAND FORECASTING AND POST IMPLEMENTATION EVALUATION ...............................73 Introduction ....................................................................................... 73 Proposed Surveys ................................................................................. 73 11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................77 FIGURES Figure 1 New Rail Stations Opened Since Privatisation ..................................... ii Figure 2 Comparison of Forecast and Observed Passenger Demand ......................iv Figure 2.1 Stations Opened Since 1999 .......................................................... 3 Figure 2.2 Location of New Stations ............................................................. 4 Figure 2.3 Stations for Which demand Forecasts and Documentation Were Available ... 5 Figure 2.4 Categorisation of New Stations ...................................................... 8 Figure 2.5 Categorisation of New Stations For Which Demand Forecasts are Available . 9 Figure 3.1 Comparison of Forecast and Observed Demand .................................. 20 Figure 3.2 Forecast and Observed Demand .................................................... 21 Figure 3.3 ComparIson of Forecast and Observed Demand by Station Category ......... 23 Figure 4.1 Nominated “Potential Abstraction” and “Counter-Factual” Stations ......... 28 Figure 4.2 Phase 1 Analysis of Demand Abstraction .......................................... 30 Figure 4.3 Summary Analysis and Conclusions of Demand Abstraction .................... 31 Figure 4.4 Stations Selected for Analysis in Phase 2 .......................................... 32 Figure 4.5 Investigation of Abstraction by Shepherds Bush Station ........................ 33 Figure 4.6 Investigation of Demand Abstraction by Ebbw Valley Parkway Station ...... 34 Figure 4.7 Investigation of Abstraction by Coleshill Parkway Station ...................... 35 Figure 4.8 Investigation of Abstraction by Aylesbury VaLe Parkway ....................... 36 Figure 4.9 Investigation of Abstraction by Alloa Station ..................................... 37 Figure 4.10 Investigation of Abstraction By Corby Station .................................... 37 Contents Final Report Figure 6.1 Analysis Of Trips Produced By and Attracted to Coleshill Parkway ........... 47 Figure 6.2 Analysis of Trips Produced by And Attracted To Chandlers Ford .............. 48 Figure 6.3 Trips Produced By New Stations: Proportion Accounted For By Key Flows .. 49 Figure 6.4 Trips Attracted By New Stations: Proportion Accounted for By Key Flows ... 50 Figure 7.1 Comparison of Trip Rates for Residential Stations ............................... 54 Figure 7.2 Comparison of Trip Rates for Park and Ride and Parkway Stations ........... 55 Figure 7.3 Comparison of Trip Rates for Other Stations ..................................... 55 Figure 8.1 Forecasting Process Overview ....................................................... 58 Figure 8.2 Walk Access Penalty .................................................................. 60 Figure 8.3 Chandlers Ford 30km buffer area ................................................... 62 Figure 8.4 Chandlers Ford Catchment Area .................................................... 63 Figure 8.5 TravelStyle Weighted Populations of Study Area Stations ...................... 64 Figure 8.6 Population Weighted by TravelStyle and Access Distance ...................... 65 Figure 8.7 Station Access Distance Decay Function ........................................... 65 Figure 8.8 Trip Diversion Calculations .......................................................... 66 Figure 8.9 Rail Service Quality Adjustment .................................................... 66 Figure 8.10 Trip Generation Calculations ........................................................ 67 Figure 8.11 Chandlers Ford Result ................................................................ 67 Figure 8.12 Summary of Demand Forecasts Using Single Model Approach .................. 68 TABLES Table 3.1 Summary of Demand Forecasting Methodology ................................... 15 Table 5.1 Original Assumptions for Development of Berryfields MDA ..................... 40 Table 5.2 Backcasting for Liverpool South Parkway ......................................... 42 Table 7.1 Comparison of Trip Rates for Residential Stations ............................... 54 Table 8.1 Generalised rail Journey Times to Southampton ................................. 62 Table 10.1 Recommended Surveys To Contribute to New Station Demand Forecasting. 74 Table 10.2 Proposed Survey Questions For “Before Station” Surveys ...................... 75 Table 10.3 Proposed Survey Questions For “After Station Opening” Surveys ............. 76 APPENDICES A APPENDIX TITLE B PRODUCER ATTRACTOR ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED STATIONS Contents Final Report C NEW STATIONS DEMAND FORECASTING CHECKLIST Contents Final Report Executive Summary Introduction 1. The primary objective of the “Station Usage and Demand Forecasting for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations”, from this point known as the “New Stations” study, is to investigate whether or not actual demand at new stations