Conflict 102 / Module 5 Conflict Diagnosis: Case Study Objectives: By the end of this session, participants will be able to: 1. Conduct a conflict diagnosis. 2. Identify factors that drive or mitigate conflict. Activity: Case Study Exercise 1. Read the email/task from the Mission director in your binder. 2. As a group, identify a recorder for the flipchart and a spokesperson to report out. 3. Take 40 minutes to conduct a basic conflict diagnosis of the Sri Lanka case. Apply all five components (motives, means, opportunity, context and mitigating factors) of the conflict equation, specifically identifying social patterns of grievance and (if possible) social patterns of resilience, to identify the factors that drive and mitigate conflict. 4. Encourage everyone to participate in the discussions. 5. Prepare a brief 5-minute report on your findings. Use a flipchart as a visual aid so other groups can see your thought process. Conflict 102 / Module 5 The Sri Lanka Case: Undertaking a Conflict Diagnosis The following are excerpts from an email message you just received from USAID/Sri Lanka’s Mission director, who is on a quick tour of the North and the East: I do apologize for burdening you with such a significant assignment in your first days at post. But as you know, the Ambassador has made support for the transition from war to peace in Sri Lanka his top priority. With the Working Group meeting the day after tomorrow, we have a lot of work to do to present the development perspective effectively. To begin with, I would like a fresh assessment of the conflict dynamics at play in Sri Lanka. I understand that you just completed a course on conflict analysis; I am sure you will be able to apply what you have learned and produce something insightful based on the materials that have been pulled together for you. Please make sure that your analysis considers the context here in Sri Lanka; I think that is key. To the extent that you can, please also consider mitigating factors, as those may provide entry points for programming. I’d like you to email me what you can pull together in the next few hours, when I am back from my afternoon meetings. Once I see what you have produced, we can think about next steps. Conflict 102 Sri Lanka: A Case Study1 You have recently been posted to USAID/Sri Lanka in Colombo. One of your duties is to serve as the Mission’s conflict officer. This is an exciting time to be posted to Colombo — Sri Lanka’s decades-long civil war ended in May 2009 as the result of the Government of Sri Lanka’s military defeat of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE). The ambassador has indicated that he feels that, despite its human and socioeconomic costs, the government victory represents a new beginning for Sri Lanka. In a recent speech, he said: Bold actions are needed now to share power and to assure all of Sri Lanka’s communities a future of hope, respect and dignity. Through such actions, a truly united Sri Lanka can emerge. A Sri Lanka that is rooted in democracy and tolerance, where human rights are respected, where media can operate freely and independently and where all Sri Lankans can participate in an open dialogue on the way forward for your country. A successful reconciliation and healing process will help ensure a lasting end to terrorism in Sri Lanka and will open the way for a future of prosperity, opportunity and hope for all Sri Lankans. The United States will remain engaged to help your country and your government achieve this. In support of this vision, the ambassador has formed an interagency working group to begin developing a new strategy for U.S. foreign assistance in Sri Lanka. To prepare for the working group’s first meeting, the Mission director is on a quick tour of the Northern and Eastern provinces, where the conflict has been concentrated. In his absence, he has left instructions for you to get up to speed on the situation in the country. To help you get started, the senior foreign service national in your unit has pulled together some key documents for you to review: 1. Basic Context Data 2. Historical Summary of the Conflict 3. Development Challenges 4. Timeline of Key Events 5. Selected Background Articles: a. Post-war Sri Lanka searches for ‘just peace,’ BBC News (May 19, 2010) 1 This is a teaching case. The views represented in the case material do not necessarily represent the views of USAID, nor does inclusion of material indicate any official endorsement of the sources. b. Where now for post-election Sri Lanka?, BBC News (January 29, 2010) c. Sri Lanka: A Bitter Peace, International Crisis Group (January 11, 2010) d. U.S. Urges Probe of Sri Lankan War, Washington Post (October 23, 2009) e. Development Assistance and Conflict in Sri Lanka: Lessons from the Eastern Province, International Crisis Group (April 16, 2009) 1. Basic Context Data 2 Overview: Full name: The Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka Capital: Colombo (commercial), Sri Jayawardenepura (administrative) Population: 20.2 million (UN, 2009) Ethnic Groups: Sinhalese (74 percent), Tamils (18 percent), Muslims (7 percent), other (1 percent). Tamils are concentrated in the North and East, but about 10 percent of Colombo’s population is Tamil. Religions: Buddhist 69 percent, Hindu 15 percent, Christian 8 percent, Muslim 8 percent (majority practice Sunni Islam). Most Sinhalese are Buddhist; most Tamils are Hindu; some of both are Christian. Major Languages: Sinhala and Tamil (official). English is spoken by about 10 percent of the population. Literacy: 91 percent Life expectancy: 72 (male); 77 (female) Main exports: Clothing and textiles, tea, gems, rubber, coconuts Corruption Perception Index ranking: 97th (out of 180 countries, with 1st being best score) 3 GNI per capita: USD $1,780 (World Bank, 2007) Government Type: Republic. Independence: February 4, 1948. Constitution: August 31, 1978. Suffrage: Universal over 18. Branches: Executive — president, chief of state and head of government, elected for a six-year term. Legislative — unicameral 225-member parliament. Judicial — supreme court, court of appeal, high court, subordinate courts. Administrative subdivisions: Nine provinces and 25 administrative districts. Economy (2008) GDP: $40.7 billion. 2 Most of the overview information is from the BBC’s “Sri Lanka Profile” retrieved at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/ country_profiles/1168427.stm. The government and economy information is from the U.S. Department of State’s “Background Note: Sri Lanka” retrieved at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5249.htm. 3 Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI) measures perceived corruption in the public sector. The CPI is compiled through surveys of business people and country analysts. Retrieved at http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/ surveys_indices/cpi/2009/cpi_2009_table. Annual growth rate: 6 percent. Natural resources: Limestone, graphite, mineral sands, gems, and phosphate. Agriculture (12 percent of GDP): Major products — rice, tea, rubber, coconut and spices. Services (60 percent of GDP): Major types — tourism, wholesale & retail trade, transport, telecom, financial services. Industry (28% of GDP): Major types — garments and leather goods, rubber products, food processing, chemicals, refined petroleum, gems and jewelry, non- metallic mineral-based products, and construction. Trade: Exports — $8.1 billion: garments, tea, rubber products, jewelry and gems, refined petroleum and coconuts. Major markets — U.S. ($2 billion), U.K., India. Imports — $14 billion. Major suppliers — India, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Iran, Malaysia, Japan, U.K., U.A.E., Belgium, Indonesia, South Korea, U.S. ($283 million). 2. Historical Summary of the Conflict When it was called Ceylon, Sri Lanka fell under Portuguese and Dutch influence and finally came under British rule. During nearly 150 years of British colonial rule, English was the language of the government and Christianity was encouraged. Following standard imperialist policy, the British (and earlier the Portuguese) invested more in ethnic minority people — the Tamils. They gave the Tamils a better school system, which provided the colonial administration with the people they required in Colombo. The Tamils learned English in large numbers. Although the British ran Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan Tamils increasingly staffed the administration and the professions. The majority Sinhalese community resented what they saw as British favoritism reflected primarily in the unequal representation of Sri Lankan Tamils in government jobs and their greater access to education and economic resources. In addition, the British introduced important new cash crops — rubber, coffee and tea — and imported about 1 million Tamil laborers from India (so-called Indian Tamils or “Hill Country” Tamils) to work the plantations, altering the ethnic balance in Sri Lanka. In the early 20th century, a nationalist political movement emerged in Sinhalese communities with the aim of obtaining political independence, which the British granted in 1948 after peaceful negotiations. Disagreements between the Sinhalese and Tamil ethnic communities began to flare up during the drafting of the country’s first post- independence constitution. The efforts of successive Sinhalese-dominated governments to redress the perceived imbalance between Tamils and Sinhalese exacerbated the situation. In 1956, passage of the “Sinhala Only Act” made Sinhala (rather than English) the official language, limiting minorities’ access to government positions and educational opportunities. This resulted in ethnic riots. Sri Lanka’s constitution also granted Buddhism — the religion of the majority Sinhalese — a dominant status. That contributed to the sense of marginalization of not only the Tamils (most of whom are Hindu, but a sizeable portion are Christian) but also the minority Muslim community in Sri Lanka, the majority of whom traced their ancestry to Arab traders. Spiraling tensions and violence between the Sinhalese and Tamil ethnic communities by the end of the 1970s developed into a full-blown civil war in 1983 when the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) began its armed conflict with the Sri Lankan government.