O NET ZERO BY 2050: FROM WHETHER TO HOW ZERO EMISSIONS PATHWAYS TO THE EUROPE WE WANT SEPTEMBER 2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful to the following organisations for their expertise and insight. CONTENTS Model testers - the following organisations supported the analytical team in testing the model, which is itself derived from the ClimateWorks Foundation’s Carbon Transparency Initiative (CTI): 4 FOREWORD 6 METHODOLOGY & SCENARIOS OVERVIEW 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 18 INTRODUCTION 20 1. REACHING NET-ZERO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN 2050 IS FEASIBLE but requires robust action across all sectors, widening the range of low-carbon options used for the transition Agora-Energiewende, Climate Strategy, The Coalition for Energy Savings, Friends of the Earth (FoE) UK, Grantham Research Institute - 30 2. NET-ZERO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN 2050 London School of Economics, Iberdrola, Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), Third Generation Environmentalism (E3G), UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy REQUIRES RAISING THE 2030 AMBITION LEVEL (BEIS), and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) European Policy Office. to leverage the no regrets options and Members of these organisations tested the model during the summer of 2018 and explored a variety of decarbonisation pathways. These set Europe on the right trajectory scenarios have informed our conclusions but were not used directly. Other organisations were consulted on sector specific discussions: 36 3. NET-ZERO PATHWAYS CAN COST Agora Verkehrswende, Aviation Environment Federation (AEF), Buildings Performance Institute Europe (BPIE), the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), Ecofys, EuroACE, the European Consumer Organisation (BEUC), the European Federation for Transport & LESS THAN BUSINESS-AS-USUAL Environment (T&E), FERN, Fraunhofer ISI, International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements – EU (IFOAM-EU), International and build a more prosperous, resilient society Institute for Systems Analysis (IIASA), Öko-Institut, Imperial College London (ICL), Open Exp, Stefan Scheuer, and Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) – Institute for European Studies (IES). Grateful thanks also to the many members of staff from the European Climate Foundation (ECF) who have provided input throughout the 48 CONCLUSION process, and to ClimateWorks Foundation for their support and encouragement. What does this mean for the European Union? The views expressed in this paper are attributable only to the authors, and not the organisations that have supported or advised on its development. 50 APPENDIX: The analytical team (Climact): Julien Pestiaux, Michel Cornet, Quentin Jossen, Benoît Martin, Vincent Matton, Jerome Meessen, Emily Taylor, Pascal Vermeulen 52 Short overview of the key assumptions and implications by Sector Project coordination (European Climate Foundation): 56 Brief methodology description Erica Hope, Agathe Kuhn Design: 64 ABOUT THE PROJECT www.lindsayynobledesign.com 66 ENDNOTES DISCLAIMER This report has been commissioned by the European Reports in the series seek to enhance understanding Climate Foundation (ECF). It is part of the Net-Zero of the implications and opportunities of moving O 2050 series, an initiative of the ECF with contributions to climate neutrality across the power, industry, from a consortium of experts and organisations. buildings, transport, agriculture, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sectors; to shed light The objective of Net-Zero 2050 is to start building a on some of the near-term choices and actions needed vision and evidence base for the transition to net-zero to reach this goal, and to provide a basis for discussion emission societies in Europe and beyond, by mid- and engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers. century at the latest. The Paris Agreement commits us to making this transition, and long-term strategic With acknowledgement of the source, reproduction of planning shows that many of the decisions and actions all or part of the publication is authorised, except for needed to get us on track must be taken imminently. commercial purposes. For more information, please contact Erica Hope, [email protected]. /3 The 2015 Paris Agreement marked the Net-zero is technically and economically moment when the global community possible. But the key driver of committed to decisive climate action success will be political will, creative to keep warming well below 2°Celsius policy implementation, and societal (°C). This will require transformational understanding and ambition. This change – all countries, rich and poor, project shows that there are many must reach carbon neutrality. Net-zero compelling reasons to expect that a needs to be our goal, our direction of net-zero world will be cleaner, healthier, travel, and our rallying cry. more prosperous, more equitable, and happier – not least because it will avoid This is a challenge, but also an opportunity the massive costs of large-scale climate – for the EU and its Member States, it impacts on food, infrastructure, health, is an opportunity to demonstrate global and migration. The costs of transition leadership by charting a path to reach are dwarfed by the costs of dealing with carbon neutrality by 2050. But in order climate impacts in a scenario where we to reach our goal, we need a plan – we fail to reach net-zero by 2050. Setting need to know the pathways to net-zero, net-zero as a clear direction of travel including the growth and innovation will help to achieve many of the societal opportunities it presents, the trade-offs goals we have set ourselves. that may need to be made, and the policy designs we will need to get there. The “Europe we want” is one that protects its citizens from global threats The European Climate Foundation’s such as climate change, which no one collaboration on the CTI 2050 Roadmap country can tackle on its own; and Tool shows that while it is not easy, creates a safer, cleaner world. Net- Europe can design these pathways – zero is a path to a sustainable Europe and the advantages far outweigh the in which prosperity and well-being are difficulties. The project seeks to answer delivered alongside a clean and healthy the question of ‘how’ we achieve the environment. required transition. FOREWORD The research makes it clear that the move forward must be holistic – all Laurence Tubiana sectors must play their part in reducing CEO, European Climate Foundation emissions. The good news is that there are interdependencies that can and must be used to deliver maximum speed and efficiency of mitigation. There are major opportunities and need for technological innovation and investment, and enabling policies – this will be fundamental to achieving the required reductions quickly. /4 /NET ZERO BY 2050: ZERO EMISSIONS PATHWAYS TO THE EUROPE WE WANT /5 THREE MAIN NET-ZERO GHG EMISSIONS METHODOLOGY SCENARIOS ARE USED IN THE REPORT AND AVAILABLE ONLINE More than 10 scenarios were modelled by the organisations who supported the model testing, while other scenarios were elaborated by the project team to explore the net-zero opportunities and trade-offs. Out of these scenarios, three & SCENARIOS typical pathways were selected to illustrate the conclusions of this report. All three reach net-zero emissions by 2050. 1. The “Shared efforts” scenario: A comparable level of effort is maintained across sectors and levers, i.e., there is no emphasis on any specific mitigation OVERVIEW option. Where conclusions are illustrated in the text with only one scenario, it is the Shared efforts scenario unless otherwise indicated. 2. The “Technology” scenario: Emphasises efficiency and innovative technological options by raising their ambition to the highest levels (e.g., This project has developed and used a simulation of buildings to reduce their energy consumption, energy efficiency, electrification, hydrogen, carbon capture, and storage model of European emissions and the mitigation enhancing the circular economy with longer-lived (CCS) ). It leads to -41% energy demand in 2050. options available now and in the future, analysing assets, shifting to renewable forms of electricity 3. The “Demand-focus” scenario: Demand-side levers are used here to reduce possible pathways to reach net-zero greenhouse gas production, and shifting to healthier diets to free up the overall demand further, e.g., for energy (-64% by 2050), products, or (GHG) emissions. The emissions scope of the model land for increasing forest covers. meat, which implies that technological levers can be reduced compared to encompasses all sectors of the economy and all GHG the Shared efforts scenario. emissions sources covered by national inventories, Rather than calculating optimal pathways, the including international aviation, shipping, and Land model allows the user to choose the ambition level These scenarios are used in the graphics of the report, but they can also be Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). of each individual lever (from a reference level up to maximum technical ambition) and thereby explore explored in more detail online. Additional scenarios are also available on the It is a techno-economic simulation model; pathways different scenarios or pathways to 2050. The costs website. illustrated in this report are designed as a combination of each pathway are estimated by adding the annual One of the objectives of this work is to increase the analytical basis available to of ambition