Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment Final Report Imprint Publisher Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) Public Relations 11019 Berlin www.bmwi.de Text Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment Status January 2019 Print MKL Druck GmbH & Co. KG, D-48346 Ostbevern Design and production PRpetuum GmbH, D-80801 Munich Illustrations Fotosearch / GettyImages / title This publication as well as further publications can be obtained from: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) Public Relations Email: [email protected] www.bmwi.de Central procurement service: Tel.: +49 30 182722721 Order fax: +49 30 18102722721 This brochure is published as part of the public relations work of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. It is distributed free of charge and is not intended for sale. The distribution of this brochure at campaign events or at information stands run by political parties is pro- hibited, and political party-related information or advertising shall not be inserted in, printed on, or affixed to this publication. 1 Content 1. Introduction . 2 2. Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment . 6 2 .1 . Appointment resolution and brief . 6 2 .2 . Composition . 6 2 .3 . Consultation and technical experts . 7 2 .4 . Benchmarks . 7 3. Baseline . 12 3 .1 . Climate policy baseline . 13 3 .2 . Energy industry baseline . 19 3 .2 .1 . Underlying European conditions . 19 3 .2 .2 . Energy markets . 20 3 .2 .3 . Electricity prices and electricity costs . 27 3 .2 .4 . Security of supply . 36 3 .2 .5 . Mining area plans . 40 3 .3 . Baseline for growth, employment and innovation potential . 49 3 .4 . Structural policy baseline . 51 3 .5 . Statutory framework . 58 4. Measures in the energy sector . 60 4 .1 . Protection of the climate . 62 4 .2 . Energy market and electricity prices for . 66 4 .3 . Reliability of the supply . 67 4 .4 . Grids, storage, sector coupling and inno vation potential . 69 4 .5 . Value creation and employment . 70 4 .6 . Consideration of open-cast mining and safe remedial treatment of closed open-cast mines . 71 5. Prospects for existing, new and future-proof jobs . 73 5 .1 . Effects, structural policy impact and future visions for mining areas . 73 5 .1 .1 . Helmstedt mining area . 73 5 .1 .2 . Lausitz mining area . 74 5 .1 .3 . Rhineland mining area . 76 5 .1 .4 . Central German mining area . 78 5 .1 .5 . The Federal Republic as a whole . 81 5 .2 . Principles for a structural development strategy . 82 5 .3 . Measures to monitor the structural . 85 5 .4 . Institutionalised structures . 102 6. Monitoring, evaluation and amendment clauses . 106 Annex 1 Appointment resolution . 109 Annex 2 Schedule of sittings for the Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment . 111 Annex 3 Experts consulted . ..