INTRODUCING InterCity: HOW REGIONAL RAIL CAN RE-BALANCE POPULATION GROWTH AND CREATE A STATE OF CITIES IN VICTORIA This paper has been prepared by Rail Futures Institute in the public interest. Rail Futures Institute is an independent non-partisan group formed to advocate cost-effective rail and intermodal solutions for public transport and freight problems based on sound commercial, economic and social reasoning. Rail Futures members include experienced rail professionals, decision-makers, engineers and economists. Rail Futures Institute July 2016 Secretary: Dr E W Russell PO Box 1257, Carlton Vic 3053 CONTENTS Preface ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 Executive summary ..........................................................................................................................................5 1. Strategic policy gaps .................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 10 1.2 Population growth ....................................................................................................................... 10 1.3 Planning policy ............................................................................................................................ 12 1.3.1 Victoria Planning Provisions (VPPs) ........................................................................................ 12 1.3.2 Regional growth plans ............................................................................................................ 13 1.3.3 Plan Melbourne ...................................................................................................................... 14 1.4 Integrated transport planning ...................................................................................................... 17 1.5 Rail strategy and governance ....................................................................................................... 19 2. Key propositions ......................................................................................................................................... 22 . Victorias rail network today ........................................................................................................................ 30 3.1 Firm foundations ......................................................................................................................... 30 3.2 Regional rail renaissance.............................................................................................................. 32 3.3 Rail service pattern and frequencies ............................................................................................. 33 3.4 Journey times .............................................................................................................................. 33 3.5 Service quality and reliability ....................................................................................................... 34 3.6 Patronage growth........................................................................................................................ 35 3.7 Network integration .................................................................................................................... 36 3.8 Network capacity and key gaps ................................................................................................... 38 3.9 PTV Regional Network Development Plan (RNDP) ...................................................................... 39 4. The blueprint: InterCity .............................................................................................................................. 42 4.1 InterCity - regional rail transformed ............................................................................................ 42 4.2 Phased investment program ........................................................................................................ 43 4.2.1 Phase 1: to 2026 ..................................................................................................................... 43 4.2.2 Phase 2: to 2040 .................................................................................................................... 44 4.3 Service patterns .......................................................................................................................... 46 4.4 Journey times .............................................................................................................................. 47 4.5 Melbourne Airport ...................................................................................................................... 48 4.6 High speed rail (HSR) .................................................................................................................. 49 4.7 Cross-Country regional routes ...................................................................................................... 50 4.8 New centres, new travel patterns ................................................................................................ 51 4.9 The regions transformed ............................................................................................................. 52 5. InterCity phased investment program ......................................................................................................... 53 5.1 South-West: Geelong and Warrnambool .................................................................................. 53 5.2 West: Ballarat, Ararat and Horsham .......................................................................................... 55 5.3 North-West: Echuca/Swan Hill via Bendigo ............................................................................... 57 5.4 North-East: Shepparton/Albury via Seymour ............................................................................59 5.5 East: Traralgon and Bairnsdale via Dandenong ........................................................................ 62 5.6 Cross-Country routes ................................................................................................................... 66 6. A new strategic policy framework .............................................................................................................. 69 Introducing InterCity Rail Futures Institute, July 2016 2 6.1 Role of government and the planning deficit ........................................................................... 69 6.2 Population growth ...................................................................................................................... 69 6.3 Planning policy ............................................................................................................................ 70 6.4 Rail strategy and governance ....................................................................................................... 71 6.5 Integrated transport planning ...................................................................................................... 71 7. Implementation .......................................................................................................................................... 72 7.1 A bold undertaking ...................................................................................................................... 72 7.2 Evaluating the business case ........................................................................................................ 72 7.3 A phased plan .............................................................................................................................. 72 7.4 Funding, growth and value capture .............................................................................................. 73 7.5 Long-term, strategic and enduring .............................................................................................. 73 Appendix A: Journey time improvements – 1992 to 2016 ................................................................................ 74 Appendix B: Regional Network Development Plan (RNDP) analysis ............................................................... 75 Appendix C: RNDP projects compared to InterCity .......................................................................................... 77 FIGURES Figure 1: InterCity blueprint – at 2040, Phases 1 and 2 combined ...................................................................... 7 Figure 2: Population growth projections ........................................................................................................ 11 Figure 3: Regional Victoria Settlement Framework Plan.................................................................................. 13 Figure 4: Population density of cities globally. ................................................................................................ 25 Figure 5: Victoria's rail network today ............................................................................................................ 29 Figure 6: V/Line reliability and punctuality data .............................................................................................. 35 Figure 7: Increase in patronage for regional rail over the