Southern California Earthquake Center ANNUAL MEETING 2015 &'('! &'('# &'(') &'('* !""! Z (x103) #$$# #$$% #$!# #$!% -15 -10 -5 SCEC-VDO Visualization of M3+ Earthquakes (1991-2015) with UCERF3 Fault Model PROCEEDINGS VOLUME XXV September 12-16, 2015 SCEC LEADERSHIP Core Institutions and Board of Directors (BoD) The Board of Directors (BoD) is the USC Harvard UC Los Angeles UC Santa Cruz USGS Pasadena primary decision-making body of SCEC; Tom Jordan* Jim Rice Peter Bird Emily Brodsky Rob Graves it meets three times annually to approve Caltech MIT UC Riverside UNR At-Large Member the annual science plan, management Nadia Lapusta** Tom Herring David Oglesby Glenn Biasi Roland Bürgmann plan, and budget, and deal with major business items. The Center Director acts CGS SDSU UC San Diego USGS Golden At-Large Member as Chair of the Board. The liaison Chris Wills Steve Day Yuri Fialko Jill McCarthy Michele Cooke members from the U.S. Geological Columbia Stanford UC Santa Barbara USGS Menlo Park *Chair **Vice-Chair Survey are non-voting members. Bruce Shaw Paul Segall Ralph Archuleta Ruth Harris, Steve Hickman ! Science Working Groups & Planning Committee (PC) The leaders of the Disciplinary Disciplinary Committee Committees and Interdisciplinary Focus Groups serve on the Planning Committee PC Chair Seismology Tectonic Geodesy EQ Geology Computational Sci (PC) for three-year terms. The PC Greg Beroza* Egill Hauksson* Jessica Murray* Mike Oskin* Yifeng Cui* develops the annual Science Elizabeth Cochran Dave Sandwell Whitney Behr Eric Dunham Collaboration Plan, coordinates activities Interdisciplinary Focus Groups relevant to SCEC science priorities, and PC Vice-Chair USR SoSAFE EFP EEII is responsible for generating annual Judi Chester* John Shaw* Kate Scharer* Jeanne Hardebeck* Jack Baker* reports for the Center. Leaders of SCEC Brad Aagaard Ramon Arrowsmith Ilya Zaliapin Jacobo Bielak Special Projects (i.e., projects with funding outside the core science * PC Members FARM SDOT GMP program) also serve on the Planning Greg Hirth* Kaj Johnson* Kim Olsen* Committee. They ensure the activities of Pablo Ampuero Thorsten Becker Christine Goulet the Special Projects are built into the Special Projects TAGs annual science plans. CME CSEP WGCEP GMSV Phil Maechling* Max Werner* Ned Field* Nico Luco ! Danijel Schorlemmer Sanaz Rezaeian The Communication, Education, and Technical Activity Groups (TAGs continued) Outreach Planning Committee (CEO PC) comprises of stakeholders representing Code Verification SIV EQ Simulators Transient Detection CEO program focus areas (public Ruth Harris Pablo Ampuero Terry Tullis Rowena Lohman education and preparedness; K-14 education initiative; experiential learning CEO Planning Committee (CEO PC) and career advancement; and the implementation interface). The CEO PC * Board liaison Tim Sellnow***, Chair Kate Long*** Danielle Sumy provides guidance for CEO programs, ** PC liaison U Central Florida CalOES IRIS reviews reports and evaluations, and *** AC liaison Jacobo Bielak** Salley McGill Chris Wills* identifies synergies with other parts of SCEC and external organizations. CMU CSUSB CGS ! Advisory Council (AC) The external Advisory Council (AC) Gail Atkinson, Chair Donna Eberhart-Phillips M. Meghan Miller John Vidale provides guidance in all aspects of Western U UC Davis UNAVCO U Washington Center activities, including basic and Norm Abrahamson Kate Long Farzad Naeim Andrew Whittaker applied earthquake research and related PG&E CalOES John A Martin MCEER/Buffalo technical disciplines, formal and informal education, and public outreach. Roger Bilham Warner Marzocchi Tim Sellnow Members of the AC are elected by the U Colorado INGV Rome U Central Florida Board for three-year terms and may be re-elected. The Council meets annually Center Management to review Center programs and plans, and prepares a report for the Center. Center Communication, Information Administration Education & Outreach Technology ! Center Director Associate Director Associate Director Associate Director Tom Jordan John McRaney Mark Benthien Phil Maechling Co-Director Special Projects/Events Education Programs Research Programmer Greg Beroza Tran Huynh Bob de Groot Scott Callaghan David Gill Exec Dir Spec Proj Contracts & Grants Strategic Partnerships Masha Liukis Christine Goulet Karen Young Sharon Sandow Kevin Milner Admin Coordinator Digital Products Fabio Silva Deborah Gormley John Marquis Systems Programmer Communications John Yu Jason Ballmann 2 | Southern California Earthquake Center Table of Contents SCEC Leadership ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 3! State of SCEC, 2015 ............................................................................................................................................ 4! 2014 Report of the Advisory Council ............................................................................................................... 10! Communication, Education, and Outreach Highlights .................................................................................... 17! Research Accomplishments ............................................................................................................................ 28! SCEC4 Science Milestones .............................................................................................................................. 72! Draft 2016 Science Plan ................................................................................................................................... 78! Meeting Agenda ............................................................................................................................................. 103! Meeting Presentations ................................................................................................................................... 111! Meeting Abstracts .......................................................................................................................................... 128! Meeting Participants ...................................................................................................................................... 198! SCEC Institutions ............................................................................................................................................ 203! ! 2015 SCEC Annual Meeting | 3 STATE OF SCEC State of SCEC, 2015 Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC Director Welcome to the 2015 Annual Meeting! I welcome you to the 25th Annual Meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center. Each year of the past quarter century, the SCEC community has gathered from across the country and around the world to share research accomplish- ments and make ambitious science plans. This year, 568 people have pre-registered for the meeting (Figure 1), and 295 poster abstracts have been submitted. The pre-registrants include more than 140 first-time attendees and almost two hundred undergraduate and graduate students. We are entering the last year of the SCEC4 program, and this meeting will give us a chance to assess our accomplishments and review our research plans. We will also be gearing up for the next phase of the Center, SCEC5. The proposal to continue our core program for another five years has been written and will be submitted to the National Science Foundation (NSF) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the end of this month. But, as usual, the main focus of this meeting will be on science: to learn all we can about earthquakes from the formal presentations and posters and from the informal discussions with our scientific colleagues. For the next few days here in Palm Springs, the weather and the science will be hot! As always, the Planning Committee has put together a blazing program. Saturday and Sunday Figure 1. Registrants at SCEC Annual Meetings 1991-2015. The number for 2015 (568) is pre- feature workshops and discussions registrants. Pie chart shows the demographic profile for 2015 pre-registrants. The lower bar chart is the history of SCEC base funding in as-spent dollars; the connected dots are the base-funding totals in on seven important topics: 2002 dollars. Funding for 2015 is current authorization. • SCEC Community Rheology Model Workshop • CSEP/USGS/GEM Workshop: Epistemic Uncertainties in Earthquake and Ground Motion Forecasts • SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) • SCEC Community Software for Extreme-Scale Computing in Earthquake System Science Meeting • SCEC Community Stress Model (CSM) Workshop • Open Discussion: Estimating Fault Zone Properties using Space-Based Measurements • California Earthquake Clearinghouse: Training and Fieldwork Limited Liability Certification At 6 pm Sunday evening, this year’s Distinguished Speaker, Professor James Rice of Harvard University, will kick off the main meeting with a plenary lecture on “Heating and weakening of faults during earthquake slip.” Over the next three days, the agenda will feature keynote speakers addressing fundamental problems, discussions of major science themes, poster sessions on research results, earthquake response exercises, technical demonstrations, education and outreach activities, and some lively social gatherings. The topical titles of the sessions indicate the range of the