AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FORUM CONFERENCE EDITION Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure The Power and Water Sectors Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek, Editors Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure CONFERENCE EDITION Preliminary Pages: Not for Circulation or Quotation Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure The Power and Water Sectors Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek Editors A copublication of the Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank The text of this conference edition is a work in progress for the forthcoming book, Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors, doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3. A PDF of the final, full-length book, once published, will be available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/, and print copies can be ordered at http://Amazon.com. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover layout: Critical Stages Cover photo: ©Wolfgang Steiner. Used with permission of Wolfgang Steiner/Getty Images. Further permission required for reuse. Africa Development Forum Series The Africa Development Forum Series was created in 2009 to focus on issues of significant relevance to Sub-Saharan Africa’s social and economic develop- ment. Its aim is both to record the state of the art on a specific topic and to contribute to ongoing local, regional, and global policy debates. It is designed specifically to provide practitioners, scholars, and students with the most up-to-date research results while highlighting the promise, challenges, and opportunities that exist on the continent. The series is sponsored by the Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank. The manuscripts chosen for publication represent the highest quality in each institution and have been selected for their relevance to the development agenda. Working together with a shared sense of mission and interdisciplinary purpose, the two institutions are committed to a common search for new insights and new ways of analyzing the development realities of the Sub-Saharan Africa region. Advisory Committee Members Agence Française de Développement Jean-Yves Grosclaude, Director of Strategy Alain Henry, Director of Research Guillaume de Saint Phalle, Head of Research and Publishing Division Cyrille Bellier, Head of the Economic and Social Research Unit World Bank Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Chief Economist, Africa Region Richard Damania, Lead Economist, Africa Region Stephen McGroarty, Executive Editor, Publishing and Knowledge Division Carlos Rossel, Publisher v Sub-Saharan Africa IBRD 39088 Titles in the Africa Development Forum Series Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation (2010) edited by Vivien Foster and Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia Gender Disparities in Africa’s Labor Market (2010) edited by Jorge Saba Arbache, Alexandre Kolev, and Ewa Filipiak Challenges for African Agriculture (2010) edited by Jean-Claude Deveze Contemporary Migration to South Africa: A Regional Development Issue (2011) edited by Aurelia Segatti and Loren Landau Light Manufacturing in Africa: Targeted Policies to Enhance Private Investment and Create Jobs (2012) by Hinh T. Dinh, Vincent Palmade, Vandana Chandra, and Frances Cossar Informal Sector in Francophone Africa: Firm Size, Productivity, and Institutions (2012) by Nancy Benjamin and Ahmadou Aly Mbaye Financing Africa’s Cities: The Imperative of Local Investment (2012) by Thierry Paulais Structural Transformation and Rural Change Revisited: Challenges for Late Developing Countries in a Globalizing World (2012) by Bruno Losch, Sandrine Fréguin-Gresh, and Eric Thomas White The Political Economy of Decentralization in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New Implementation Model (2013) edited by Bernard Dafflon and Thierry Madiès Empowering Women: Legal Rights and Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier and Tazeen Hasan Enterprising Women: Expanding Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier Safety Nets in Africa: Effective Mechanisms to Reach the Poor and Most Vulnerable (2015) edited by Carlo del Ninno and Bradford Mills Urban Labor Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013) edited by Philippe De Vreyer and François Roubaud Securing Africa’s Land for Shared Prosperity: A Program to Scale Up Reforms and Investments (2013) by Frank F. K. Byamugisha Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (2014) by Deon Filmer and Louis Fox vii viii TITLES IN THE AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FORUM SERIES Tourism in Africa: Harnessing Tourism for Growth and Improved Livelihoods (2014) by Iain Christie, Eneida Fernandes, Hannah Messerli, and Louise Twining-Ward Land Delivery Systems in West African Cities: The Example of Bamako, Mali (2015) by Alain Durand-Lasserve, Maÿlis Durand-Lasserve, and Harris Selod The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa (2015) by Alexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster? (2015) edited by David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, and Abdo S. Yazbeck All books in the Africa Development Forum series are available for free at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2150v Contents Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii About the Contributors xv Abbreviations xxiii Key Messages xxv Overview 1 Raffaello Cervigni, James E. Neumann, Rikard Liden, Kenneth M. Strzepek 1 Africa’s Water and Power Infrastructure 25 James E. Neumann 2 Methodology 37 Kenneth M Strzepek, Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, Robert Lempert, Mark Howells, David Purkey, Brent Boehlert, Yohannes Gebretsadik 3 Climate Change Projections in Africa 59 Brent Boehlert, Kenneth M. Strzepek, David Groves, Bruce Hewitson, Chris Jack 4 Establishing a Reference Investment Scenario 77 Annette Huber-Lee, Stephanie Galaitsi, Casey Brown, Abdulkarim Seid, Denis Hughes, Brian Joyce ix x CONTENTS 5 The Impacts of