1 An Examination of the Factors Determining the Performance of Cyclists in Elite Competitions Kathryn Elizabeth Phillips 2020 A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Primary Supervisor: Professor William G. Hopkins Secondary Supervisor: Dr Rod Corban Institute for Health and Sport College of Sport and Exercise Science Victoria University 2 ABSTRACT A key objective of sports performance research is to provide team managers, coaches, and athletes seeking to improve performance with information on the attributes that contribute to or predict overall success, yet the determinants of performance in actual competition remain an under-examined and under-theorised field. The focus of this thesis is an exploration of these determinants, particularly in the more complex races that permit opponent interaction. The rationale and theoretical framework for the thesis is outlined in Chapter 1, where I explain how it is underpinned by concepts from ecological dynamics, utilising a sequential explanatory mixed-methods research approach, first to quantify the changes in cyclist performance in increasingly complex racing environments, followed by a qualitative investigation to explain and elaborate on the potential mechanisms underpinning these changes. In the initial quantitative analyses (Chapters 2 and 3), linear mixed modelling of race results was used to examine changes in the variability and predictability of elite track cyclists' performances between solo time trials and race events involving direct interaction with competitors. In Chapter 2, cyclists’ performances in the three solo time-trials and three mass-start race events that comprise the overall Omnium competition were investigated. The reproducibility of performance in the mass-start events was lower than in the solo events. In Chapter 3, Match Sprint tournaments provided performance measures in a qualifying time trial and subsequent head-to-head racing. Qualifying time-trial performance largely determined success in head-to-head racing, but there was evidence of unknown factors modifying cyclists’ chances of success. In Chapter 4, a systematic narrative review was undertaken, in which published findings on the determinants of cyclists’ behaviours and chances of success in elite competition were collated and synthesised. Key findings were grouped and used to shape a conceptual framework of the determinants of performance. A qualitative research approach was adopted for Chapters 5 and 6, wherein semi-structured interviews with 15 elite cyclists from three racing disciplines were used to explore potential factors underpinning the results in Chapters 2, 3 and 4. Transcribed text of the interviews was examined using thematic inductive content analysis to develop initial themes, which were cross-validated with results from Chapter 4. Chapter 5 focused on the changes in the perceptions and practices of cyclists between solo time trials and race events with direct interaction between opponents. In Chapter 6, other themes of the thematic content analysis are combined with results from each prior study to propose an initial systems model of elite cycling performance, summarising the dimensions, features and mechanisms identified throughout this thesis. Final concluding statements, including the practical applications, limitations and possible future directions of this work are made in Chapter 7. In this thesis, I have demonstrated the advantages of combining research techniques and drawing on research across a range of scientific disciplines in order to enrich our understanding of competitive performance in some cycling disciplines. Research on competitive performance in 3 other sports characterised by complex environments could benefit from this mixed-methods approach. 4 STUDENT DECLARATION I, Kathryn E Phillips, declare that the PhD thesis by Publication entitled ‘An Examination of the Factors Determining the Performances of Cyclists in Elite Competition’ is no more than 100,000 words in length including quotes and exclusive of tables, figures, appendices, bibliography, references, and footnotes. This thesis contains no material that has been submitted previously, in whole or in part, for the award of any other academic degree or diploma. Except where otherwise indicated, this thesis is my own work. Signature: Date: 16.07.2020 5 DETAILS OF INCLUDED PAPERS Chapter Paper Title Publication Publication Title anD Details Status Chapter 2 Performance Relationships in Published Phillips, K.E., & Hopkins, W.G. Timed and Mass-Start (2017) in the International Events for Elite Omnium Journal of Sports Physiology Cyclists and Performance, 12 (5), 628- 633 Impact Factor: 4.0 Chapter 3 Factors Affecting Cyclists’ Published Phillips, K.E., & Hopkins, W.G. Chances of Success in (2019) in International Journal Match-Sprint Tournaments. of Sports Physiology and Performance, 14 (4), 472-477 Impact Factor: 4.0 Chapter 4 Determinants of Cycling Published Phillips, K.E., & Hopkins, W.G. Performance: a Review of (2020) in Sports Medicine the Dimensions and Open, 6 (23), 1-18 Features Regulating Impact Factor: 3.1 Performance in Elite Cycling Competitions. Chapter 5 The Influence of Opponents Currently Phillips, K.E., Corban, R.C., & in Elite Cycling Races: a under Hopkins, W.G. submitted to Qualitative Analysis. review Psychology of Sport and Exercise Impact Factor: 2.096 Chapter 6 An Empirical Study and Unsubmitted Phillips, K.E., Hopkins, W.G., & Initial Systems Model of but Corban, R.C. the Features Influencing proposed to Competition Performances be submitted of Elite Cyclists Declaration by: Kathryn Elizabeth Phillips Signature: Date: 14/07/2020 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The journey I have been on across the course of this PhD is more immense than I could ever have anticipated at the outset. I am enormously grateful for the tribe of people that have supported, encouraged, motivated, threatened and listened as I fought my way through this process. I would never have reached the point of submission without you all. In the first instance I must thank my principal supervisor, Will Hopkins, for the extraordinary amount of time and patience he offered me throughout this process. I knew you would be a hard task master, Will. I knew you would critique my work thoroughly. Your reputation preceded you. What nobody told me was the sheer privilege it would be to be supervised by you. I am enormously grateful. I will never be able to repay you for the extent of your mentorship these past years and the time you have poured into me. I can only hope that over the course of my career I might have the opportunity to do the same for others. In the second instance, I must thank Rod Corban for taking an entirely different supervisory approach and forcing me out of my comfort zone on numerous occasions. At times you left me feeling absolutely flummoxed, but your approach also led me to get a grasp on qualitative research that I perhaps never otherwise would have developed. Thirdly, to those within the cycling industry that I have had the privilege of working with, it has been a joy to work alongside you. I learned an enormous amount from you all and you collectively ignited a passion for this sport that remains to this day. I remain a passionate advocate of sport and this work only furthers my desire to see it done well. I also wish to thank those who encouraged me to undertake this journey and who continued to provide inspiration that it could be done. Rita, Sian, Paul, Damian, and Jono, thank you for your advice and encouragement. Knowing you had successfully walked this path helped enormously when the going got tough. Finally, to my long-suffering friends and family. Thank you. When all is said and done, you lot are all that truly matter. Thank you for continuing to ask if I was finished yet, even when that was met with a less than favourable response. Thank you for the support. Mum & Dad, there are no words. I am so blessed to be loved and supported by you both. I hope I can continue to make you proud. Thank you for continuing to tolerate my mad endeavours and your unwavering support. I love you both and I’m so proud to be yours. Steve, I know you will never read this… but thank you none the less. PhD student came as part of the package, and your patience and understanding as it slowly ate up more and more of my time is so appreciated. Thank you for the kind words, the tough words, the encouragement, the space to get it done, and the bear hugs when it was all too much. Above all, lead on. Psalm 63. 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. 2 STUDENT DECLARATION ...................................................................................................... 4 DETAILS OF INCLUDED PAPERS ........................................................................................ 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................ 7 LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... 9 LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... 10 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................