Coastal Research Library 27 Lynn Donelson Wright C. Reid Nichols Editors Tomorrow’s Coasts: Complex and Impermanent Coastal Research Library Volume 27 Series editor Charles W. Finkl, Coastal Education and Research Foundation Boca Raton, FL, USA The aim of this book series is to disseminate information to the coastal research community. The Series covers all aspects of coastal research including but not limited to relevant aspects of geological sciences, biology (incl. ecology and coastal marine ecosystems), geomorphology (physical geography), climate, littoral oceanography, coastal hydraulics, environmental (resource) management, engi- neering, and remote sensing. Policy, coastal law, and relevant issues such as conflict resolution and risk management would also be covered by the Series. The scope of the Series is broad and with a unique cross-disciplinary nature. The Series would tend to focus on topics that are of current interest and which carry some import as opposed to traditional titles that are esoteric and non-controversial. Monographs as well as contributed volumes are welcomed. Charles W. Finkl, Coastal Education & Research Foundation, USA Email: cfi[email protected] More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8795 Lynn Donelson Wright • C. Reid Nichols Editors Tomorrow’s Coasts: Complex and Impermanent A collaborative synthesis promoted by the Coastal and Environmental Research Committee of the Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) 123 Editors Lynn Donelson Wright C. Reid Nichols Southeastern Universities Research Marine Information Resources Association (SURA) Corporation (MIRC) Washington, DC Ellicott City, MD USA USA ISSN 2211-0577 ISSN 2211-0585 (electronic) Coastal Research Library ISBN 978-3-319-75452-9 ISBN 978-3-319-75453-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75453-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018940873 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover: Coastal Slum, Kolkata (Calcutta) India Photo credit: Bertrand Celce Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland In no environment is the connection between people and nature stronger than in coastal systems. Climate change, sea level rise, ecosystem evolution, altered river discharge, and changes in the size, intensity, and duration of storms will accelerate the degradation of coastal realms over the decades ahead. The coastal systems and coastal communities of the future will be different from those of today. Foreword In no environment is the connection between people and nature stronger than in coastal systems. Climate change, sea level rise, ecosystem evolution, hydrologic modifications of river discharge to the coasts, and changes in the intensity and duration of storms and attendant coastal erosion are likely to accelerate the alter- ation of coastal realms over the decades ahead. In concert with these changes, the socioeconomic environment that underpins human coastal communities is also impermanent and dynamic. The interdependence of environmental and socioeco- nomic processes in the Anthropocene is already giving rise to suites of highly complex and nonlinear feedbacks, many of which are counterintuitive. Improved abilities to predict, communicate, mitigate, and respond to the outcomes of future coastal processes, gradual as well as abrupt, on both long-term and event timescales are essential to the welfare of coastal communities and to the sustainability of coastal ecosystems and built infrastructures. Those interested in understanding the complex nature of coastal processes must take an interdisciplinary approach to Earth system problems, and international collaborations to strengthen the rela- tionships between the physical and social sciences must be nurtured. The changes that are underway can be slowed, with a global commitment to do so, but most cannot be stopped. The coastal systems of the future will be different from those of today. Preparation of this general literature synthesis was undertaken as an initiative of the Southeastern Universities Research Association’s Coastal and Environmental Research Committee to lay a foundation for future collaborations aimed at improving predictions and strategies for responding to the complex changes that are occurring, and are expected to occur in the future, within the world’s diverse coastal systems. Strategies for ensuring the joint resilience of humans and nature will rely heavily on understanding how the many complex facets of the system interconnect and how they might evolve in the foreseeable future. This understanding must extend well beyond the scientific community to include decision-makers, politicians, and the general public. This synthesis is intended to contribute to that broad understanding and stimulate pursuit of forward-looking solutions. This is not a technical or specialized treatise. The intent is to provide a conceptual roadmap to show how some of the numerous pieces of vii viii Foreword complex coastal systems intersect and might interact under changing future envi- ronmental regimes. The book is addressed to a nontechnical but environmentally literate audience that includes the lay public, policy-makers, planners, engineers, environmental scientists, and academics interested in the causes and consequences of global environmental change and its effects on coastal systems. The book also outlines some strategies for anticipating and responding to the challenges that lie ahead. It is hoped that as future changes unfold, our understandings and abilities to predict will also evolve. Starkville, MS, USA David R. Shaw Chair, Coastal and Environmental Research Committee, Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) Acknowledgements Preparation of this work was supported in part by the Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) and in part by the altruism and energy of the con- tributing authors and their respective institutions. We especially thank Jerry Draayer, SURA’s President, and CEO for his encouragement and financial support and Sara Madden of SURA for assisting with editing and proofreading. SURA (www.SURA.org) is a nonprofit organization [501(c)(3)] consisting of 60 member universities. We also thank the many authors referenced throughout this work for permissions to reprint their figures and photos. This synthesis project arose at the request of SURA’s Coastal and Environmental Research Committee (CERC) in fall of 2015. The current members of this committee are as follows: CERC Members and Institutions Steve Boss, University of Arkansas Gordon C. Cannon, The University of Southern Mississippi Benjamin Cuker, Hampton University Christopher F. D’Elia, Louisiana State University David Eggleston, North Carolina State University Carl Friedrichs, College of William and Mary Monty Graham, The University of Southern Mississippi Scott Hagen, Louisiana State University Dawit Haile, Virginia State University Rodger Harvey, Old Dominion University Rick Luettich, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill George Maul, Florida Institute of Technology William Moore, Hampton University Laura Moore, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill James Morris, University of South Carolina ix x Acknowledgements Anton Post, Florida Atlantic University Joe Ramus, Duke University Don Resio, University of North Florida David Rouse, Auburn University David R. Shaw, Mississippi State University Peter Sheng, University of Florida Carolyn Thoroughgood, University of Delaware Joel Trexler, Florida International University Robert Weisberg, University of South Florida Donald Young, Virginia Commonwealth University Dick Yue, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Gary Zarillo, Florida Institute of Technology Contents Part I Understanding Coastal Systems and Global Change 1 Coastal Complexity and Predictions of Change ............... 3 Lynn Donelson Wright, J. P. M. Syvitski and C. Reid Nichols 2 Global Change: More Than Climate ........................ 25 Lynn Donelson Wright, J. P. M. Syvitski and C. Reid Nichols 3 Sea Level Rise: Recent Trends and Future Projections .......... 47 Lynn Donelson Wright, J. P. M. Syvitski and C.