Great Powers and the Quest for Hegemony This timely book provides a general overview of Great Power politics and world order from 1500 to the present. Jeremy Black provides several historical case studies, each of which throws light on both the power in question and the international system of the period, and how it had developed from the preceding period. The point of departure for this book is Paul Kennedy’s 1988 masterpiece, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. That iconic book, with its enviable mastery of the sources and its skilful integration of political, military and economic history, was a great success when it appeared and has justifiably remained important since. Written during the Cold War, however, Kennedy’s study was very much of its time in its consideration of the Great Powers in ‘Western’ terms, and its emphasis on economics. This book brings together strategic studies, international relations, military history and geopolitics to answer some of the contemporary questions left open by Professor Kennedy’s great work and also looks to the future of great power relations and of US hegemony. Great Powers and the Quest for Hegemony will be of great interest to students of international relations, strategic studies and international history. Jeremy Black is Professor of History at the University of Exeter. A world-renowed authority in history and archives, he is the author of seventy books, including The British Seaborne Empire, Rethinking Military History and Introduction to Global Military History. War, History and Politics Series Editor: Jeremy Black Trade, Empire and British Foreign Policy, 1689–1815 Politics of a commercial state Jeremy Black Citizens, Soldiers and National Armies Military service in France and Germany, 1789–1830 Thomas Hippler America, War and Power Defining the state, 1775–2005 Lawrence Sondhaus and A.James Fuller (eds) Great Powers and the Quest for Hegemony The world order since 1500 Jeremy Black Great Powers and the Quest for Hegemony The world order since 1500 Jeremy Black LONDON AND NEW YORK First published 2008 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2007. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” © 2008 Jeremy Black All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Black, Jeremy. Quest for power: the world order since 1500/Jeremy Black. p. cm.—(War, history and politics series) 1. History, Modern—Case studies. 2. Military history, Modern—Case studies. 3. Economic history—Case studies. 4. Balance of power—Case studies. I. Title. D210.B53 2007 909.08–dc22 2007011992 ISBN 0-203-93889-5 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 10: 0-415-39579-8 (hbk) ISBN 10: 0-415-39580-1 (pbk) ISBN 10: 0-203-93889-5 (ebk) ISBN 13: 978-0-415-39579-3 (hbk) ISBN 13: 978-0-415-39580-9 (pbk) ISBN 13: 978-0-203-93889-8 (ebk) For Geoff and Lisa Thould Contents Preface ix 1 Introduction: the Kennedy thesis considered 1 2 Bids for mastery, 1500–90 23 3 Seventeenth-century crises, 1590–1680 44 4 The rise of the great powers, 1680–1774 60 5 A reshaped world, 1775–1860 75 6 Accelerated change, 1860–1913 98 7 Bids for power, 1914–42 116 8 The fall of empires, 1943–91 135 9 American hegemony, 1991–2007? 169 10 Into the future 187 11 Conclusions 198 Notes 202 Selected further reading 224 Index 226 Preface The point of departure for this book is Paul Kennedy’s 1987 masterpiece, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. This book, with its enviable command of the literature and its ambitious and skilful integration of political, military and economic history, was a great success when it appeared and has justifiably remained important since. It is a tribute to Kennedy’s very positive role that other writing on the subject is in the shadow of his work. Shadows, however, lengthen, and it can be asked whether a re-examination is in order. The following book, which seeks to cover some of the same ground, offering a different interpretation and therefore in part serving as a response, is restricted to a size far shorter than that of Kennedy. I can only therefore take re-examination so far, but it is pertinent to revisit his theme. In part, this is because Kennedy was writing during the Cold War, and the geopolitical situation has changed since in a way in particular that invites a reconsideration both of his treatment of the Cold War and of his concluding chapter ‘To the Twenty-First Century’. Two methodological and conceptual aspects of Kennedy’s book, moreover, invite a more profound reconsideration: first, the treatment of the non- Western world; second, the relationship between power and economics; and, more specifically, the danger that they will be treated in a reductionist fashion. Each aspect is considered in Chapter 1. A different approach is proposed in this book. Rather than searching for a unitary model for the definition and fate of great powers, as Kennedy is inclined to do, it is more appropriate to stress specific factors particular to each period and great power, and, as a related point, to emphasize the fortuitous nature of the rise and fall of individual great powers. In this, the response to particular conjunctures was crucial, and it is important not to assume that there was any inevitability in this response. This, in turn, directs attention to the quality of political leadership within what is referred to as the strategic culture of a particular state. If, as Kennedy argues, imperial overstretch was a key problem, and one that helped lead to the fall of great powers, it is important to consider whether this was a structural feature, or more one very much dependent on circumstances including the quality of leadership. Clearly, only so much can be covered within the allocated space, but hopefully this book will serve as a useful introduction and be of value to general readers and students as well as to subject specialists. Originally entitled Quest for Power: The World Order Since 1500, it seeks to draw attention to the variety of types of power and the different drives involved. While thinking about and writing this book, I have benefited from the opportunities to speak at Florida State and Ohio State universities, at Adelphi and Boston universities, at the University of the South, at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, at Winchester College, at a conference on challenges to the nation-state organized by the New Criterion, at the Oxford Conference in Education, 2007, and at a conference on leadership in a revolutionary age organized by the Mendoza College of Business of the University of Notre Dame in 2007. Gábor Agoston, Virginia Aksan, Roger Burt, John France, Jan Glete, Richard Hamilton, Peter Hoffenberg, Colin Imber, Harald Kleinschmitt, Adrian Lewis, Stewart Lone, Peter Lorge, Tim May, Stephen Morillo, Thomas Otte, Peter Stachura, Dave Stone, Martin Thomas, William Thompson, John Vasquez, Everett Wheeler, Sam Williamson, H.P.Willmott, Peter Wilson and Don Yerxa kindly commented on sections of a draft. I would like to thank Liz O’Donnell for her speedy and effective copy-editing. I have also profited greatly from discussing the topic with Charles Aldington, Ian Beckett, Tim Black, Daniel Branch, Guy Chet, Arthur Eckstein, Henry Kamen, Jack Levy, Mark Overton, Michael Pavkovic, Tim Rees and Jon Sumida. Opinions differ, not least among those who have kindly taken the time to read or discuss my work, and this difference reflects the continuing fascination and relevance of the past. Given the misleading tendency of some critics to personalize historiographical issues, I mention for the record that Paul Kennedy is widely regarded as a courteous and pleasant individual as well as a first-rate scholar, and that I have certainly found him so, not least in his friendly response to this project. It is a great pleasure to dedicate this book to two good friends, who are wonderful fun, splendid hosts and great companions on Dartmoor walks. 1 Introduction The Kennedy thesis considered This chapter sets out to reconsider, from a global and cultural perspective, the ‘rise and fall of great powers’, especially Paul Kennedy’s formulation of that topic in 1987. The major and continuing impact of his book ensures that discussion of it is still relevant, while its connection with other general assumptions permeating Western scholarship is also significant. Kennedy’s emphasis was on the dependent relationship between economic strength and mobilization and great-power status, as well as on the changing nature of economic strength and its consequences for capability and success as a power. He also discussed the extent to which policy choices, specifically strategic overreach, can weaken the economic base of great powers. My emphasis in this book, in contrast, is on the limits and problems of a materialist perspective on great powers, with its focus on the cost and affordability of greatness.