Nigeria: Economic Statistics and News Brief (July 02 - 06, 2018) I. NIGERIAN ECONOMIC STATISTICS 1.1 Inflation Average Inflation (CPI) for May 2018 is 11.61% which is a steady reduction from 12.48% in April 2018, 13.3% on March 2018, 14.33% in February 2018 and 15.13% recorded in January 2018. It is worth noting that Nigeria Inflation Rate slowed to a record 2-Year Low in May. Figure 1: Average Inflation rate. 20.00% 15.13% 14.33% 13.30% 12.48% 11.61% 10.00% 0.00% Jan. 2018 Feb. 2018 March. 2018 April. 2018 May. 2018 1.2: Exchange Rates The figure below shows that the average difference between the official and black market buying rates of the Dollar, Euro and Pounds sterling, through the week is about 54, 60 and 72 respectively. The official and parallel market rates for the week were relatively stable. Figure 2: Naira Exchange Rate – July 02-06, 2018 (Buying Rates) 478 478 475 474 474 500 2-Jul 415 415 415 412 412 404.3 402.6 401.8 450 400.3 359 359 359 358 358 356.8 3-Jul 354.9 354.7 400 354.3 304.8 350 304.7 304.7 304.7 4-Jul 300 250 5-Jul Dollar Dollar (P.M) Euro Euro(P.M) Pounds Pounds 6-Jul (Official) (Official) (Official) (P.M) In the same vein, Figure 3 shows that the selling rates are equally non-volatile from July 2nd to 6th of 2018. However, as is the case with the buying rates, there exists a visible difference between the official rates and black market rates. nd th Figure 3: Naira Selling Rates– July 2 -6 , 2018 482 480 480 600 479 479 420 420 420 420 417 405.6 403.9 403.2 401.6 362 362 362 362 361 357.9 356 355.9 355.5 400 305.8 305.7 305.7 305.7 200 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul Dollar (Official) Dollar (P.M) Euro (Official) Euro(P.M) Pounds (Official) Pounds (P.M) Page 1 of 12 1.3 Monetary Policy Rate The Monetary policy rate in Nigeria has remained unchanged (January-April) at 14%. 1.4 International Oil Prices The oil prices for WTI crude, Brent Crude Dubai, Open basket and bonny light seem to follow the same pattern for the week. All five crude types are relatively stable through the week. Figure 4: International Oil Prices – July 02-06, 2018 80 78 76 74 Oil Oil Price ($) 72 70 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul WTI Crude -USA 74.15 73.94 74.14 72.94 73.8 Brent Crude-UK 77.3 77.76 78.24 77.39 77.11 Dubai 73.59 73.59 73.59 74.53 Open Basket 75.28 74.62 75.21 Bonny Light- Nigeria 76.92 78.11 77.03 1.5 Broad Money and Currency in Circulation Broad Money shows a steady and consistent increase from January to May January 2018 from ₦23.83 trillion to ₦35.17 trillion. On the other hand, currency in circulation fell from about ₦1.94 trillion in February 2018 to ₦1.67 trillion in March 2018. It then rose up to ₦1.96 trillion in April 2018 but then again dropped to ₦1.93 trillion in May 2018. Figure 5: Broad Money and Currency in Circulation Broad Money and Currency Circulation (₦trillion) 25.50 1.95 1.96 25.17 2.00 1.94 25.00 1.93 1.90 24.52 24.50 24.30 1.80 24.02 24.00 23.83 1.70 1.67 23.50 1.60 23.00 1.50 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Broad Money (M2) Currency in Circulation 1.6 Financial Indicators– July 02-06, 2018 The opening balances of banks/discount houses dropped from 163.002 billion Naira on the 3rd h of July 2018 to only about 71.34 billion Naira on the 5th of July and then increased exponentially to 233.55 billion Naira on the 6th July. While, the net lending facility increases steadily from 41.81 on the 2nd of July 2018 to 70.59 on the 5ty of July 2018, but dropped to 30.27 on the 6th of July 2018. Page 2 of 12 Figure 6: Financial Indicators 30.27 6-Jul 233.55 70.59 71.34 62.75 4-Jul 147.4 55.98 163.002 41.81 2-Jul 161.99 0 50 100 150 200 250 Net Lending facility (Billion Naira) Opening Balance (Billion Naira) 1.7 Stock Market Update– July 02-06, 2018 The All-Share Index for the week shows that All-share index dropped from 37,964.92 on the 2nd to 37,499.07 on the 4th but increased on the next day to 37743.22 only to drop again on the 6th of July 2018. Figure 7: Stock Market Variables 38000 37946.92 37900 37800 37743.22 37700 37605.12 37625.59 37600 37499.07 37500 37400 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 1.7. External debt stock and Services First quarter external debt stock and services since 2008 points to the fact that 2018 quarter one witnessed the worst of them all, with its highest point in 10 years of US$22,071.91 million and US$225.25 million respectively. Figure 8: External debt stock and Services(US$' Million) 25,000.00 22,071.91 20,000.00 15,000.00 10,000.00 9,166.02 5,000.00 3,755.10 88.99 119.48 225.25 0.00 109.97 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 External Debt Stock External Debt Service 1.8: Exchange Rates On the other hand, however, the monthly balance of trade recorded its four years highest point in March 2018 with US$2,354 million. Figure 9: Balance of Trade (X-M) Page 3 of 12 2,500.00 2,159.89 2,354.67 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,097.06 1,000.00 500.00 - (500.00) II. Economic News ECONOMIC ISSUES 02/07/2018 Diamond Bank commits N105m to entrepreneurial development Diamond Bank Plc said it has committed N105 million in seven years in grants to support budding entrepreneurs in the country through its Building Entrepreneurs Today (BET), programme. The Diamond Bank’s BET programme is a six-month intensive entrepreneurial training of 50 budding entrepreneurs every year from selected sectors of the economy. The top five entrepreneurs from each season are awarded a grant of N3 million each as start-up capital for their businesses. Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/diamond-bank-commits-n105m-entrepreneurial- development/ Wema Bank introduces agent banking in Kano WEMA Bank Plc has introduced agent banking in Kano State as it seeks to strengthen its contributions to developing the informal sectors and financial inclusion throughout the Northern region. With this, the bank noted that it is committed to providing financial access to the unbanked, underbanked, and branch-starved communities. Read more at https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/wema-bank-introduces-agent-banking-kano/ Online threats to Nigeria on the rise – Minister Cyber-related threats to Nigeria and the West African region are increasing in number, type and sophistication, the Minister of Communication, Mr Adebayo Shittu, has said. The minister also disclosed that the ministry was working with stakeholders to roll out a new strategy for management of cyber threats across the country. Read more at http://punchng.com/online-threats-to-nigeria-on-the-rise-minister/ Government slow in tackling economic hurdles. The Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria says the government has been slow but steady in dismantling hurdles that have inhibited sustainable economic growth and development. Nigeria currently faces a plethora of economic challenges. Though the country successfully grew out of economic recession in 2017, after five consecutive quarters of contraction, there still exists notable gaps towards economic development such as high unemployment, infrastructural deficits, and alarmingly low literacy rates, among others. Read more at http://punchng.com/government-slow-in-tackling-economic-hurdles/ Page 4 of 12 ECONOMIC ISSUES - 03/07/2018 Macron’s visit to Nigeria will boost inbound tourism, said the stakeholders Some tourism stakeholders on Monday (02/07/18) said that the planned visit by President Emmanuel Macron of France to the African Shrine in Lagos would further boost inbound tourism in the country. They said in separate interviews in Lagos that it would also boost the positive image of the country’s culture, music and arts before the outside world. Read more at https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/macrons-proposed-visit-to-nigeria-will-boost-inbound- tourism-says-stakeholders/ Edo Automotive sector receives a boost as Obaseki hosts CEOs of BMW, Nissan, Toyota, Volkswagen, others Efforts by the Godwin Obaseki-led administration to harness the vast economic opportunities in the global auto industry through the state’s economic diversification strategy have begun yielding result as 36 chief executive officers of leading global auto brands and component suppliers, arrive Benin City on Wednesday (04/07/18). Read more at https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/edo-automotive-sector-receives-boost-obaseki-hosts- ceos-bmw-nissan-toyota-volkswagen-others/ Bearish market persists as lose N124bn The bearish trend sustained its hold in the stock market on Tuesday (03/07/18) as the Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE market capitalisation, (value) dropped further by N124 billion.