1997 RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND A JOINT REPORT BY THE OECD NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY AND THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: ± to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining ®nancial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; ± to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and ± to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996) and Korea (12th Decem- ber 1996). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention). NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1st February 1958 under the name of the OEEC European Nuclear Energy Agency. It received its present designation on 20th April 1972, when Japan became its ®rst non-European full Member. NEA membership today consists of all OECD Member countries, except New Zealand and Poland. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the Agency. The primary objective of the NEA is to promote co-operation among the governments of its participating countries in furthering the development of nuclear power as a safe, environmentally acceptable and economic energy source. This is achieved by: ± encouraging harmonization of national regulatory policies and practices, with particular reference to the safety of nuclear installations, protection of man against ionising radiation and preservation of the environment, radioactive waste management, and nuclear third party liability and insurance; ± assessing the contribution of nuclear power to the overall energy supply by keeping under review the technical and economic aspects of nuclear power growth and forecasting demand and supply for the different phases of the nuclear fuel cycle; ± developing exchanges of scienti®c and technical information particularly through participation in common services; ± setting up international research and development programmes and joint undertakings. In these and related tasks, the NEA works in close collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, with which it has concluded a Co-operation Agreement, as well as with other international organisations in the nuclear ®eld. PubliÂe en franËcais sous le titre : URANIUM 1997 RESSOURCES, PRODUCTION ET DEMANDE ± EDITIONÂ 1998 Photo Credit: The Hamr production centre, Czeck Republic ± courtesy of Diamo s.p. OECD 1998 Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom use should be obtained through the Centre franËcais d'exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, Tel. (33-1) 44 07 47 70, Fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, for every country except the United States. In the United States permission should be obtained through the Copyright Clearance Center, Customer Service, (508)750-8400, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA, or CCC Online: http://www.copyright.com/. All other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this book should be made to OECD Publications, 2, rue AndrÂe-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. PREFACE Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their Member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodical updates on world uranium resources, production and demand. These updates have been published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the “Red Book”. This seventeenth edition of the Red Book replaces the 1995 edition and reflects current information on 1 January 1997. Since 1973 the Red Book has been produced once every two years. It presents a comprehensive assessment of the uranium supply and demand situation at present and periodically up to the year 2015. The basis for the assessment consists of estimates of uranium resources in several categories of assurance of existence and economic attractiveness, and projections of production capability, installed nuclear capacity, and related uranium requirements. Annual statistical data are included on exploration expenditures, uranium production, employment and uranium stocks. In addition to the global analysis, detailed national reports are provided concerning uranium resources, exploration, production activities and relevant uranium policies. This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through questionnaires sent by the NEA to its Member countries and by the IAEA to its participating Member states which are not OECD Member countries. Although some countries prepared comprehensive national reports which are presented essentially in their original form in Part III, a number of these reports were prepared by each agency based on the responses to the questionnaire and/or on some other official responses. Preparation of the remaining sections of the report was divided equally between the two agencies under the general guidance of the NEA-IAEA Uranium Group. Parts I and II (Uranium Supply and Uranium Demand) were drafted by separate working parties composed of members of the NEA-IAEA Uranium Group and chaired by the Vice-Chairmen of the Group (see Annex 1). It also reviews the uranium supply situation throughout the world by evaluating and compiling data on uranium resources, past and present production, and plans for future production. The data, provided by 59 countries, are then compared with possible future reactor-related uranium requirements. Recent levels of exploration for uranium are also reported and analysed. This edition of the Red Book contains for the second time resource estimates at a production cost level of $40/kg of uranium or less. Information on short-term uranium demand has been provided by national authorities up to the year 2015. Longer-term projections of uranium demand, based on expert opinion rather than on information submitted by national authorities, are qualitatively discussed in the report. The opinions expressed in Parts I and II do not necessarily reflect the position of Member countries or international organisations. This report is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENT The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Paris, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, would like to acknowledge the co-operation of those organisations (see Annex 2), which replied to the questionnaire submitted to them. Following an agreement between the NEA and the IAEA, the NEA Uranium Group was reconstituted as the Joint NEA-IAEA Uranium Group during 1996. This provides the opportunity of full participation by representatives of all Member countries of the two organisations with an interest in uranium related activities. It has resulted in increased participation of IAEA Member states in preparation of this Red Book. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 9 DEFINITIONS AND TERMINOLOGY ....................................................................................................17 I. URANIUM SUPPLY........................................................................................................................... 25 A. Uranium Resources....................................................................................................................... 25 • Known Conventional Resources .....................................................................................25 • Introduction of the cost range of $40/kgU or less...........................................................29 • Distribution of Known Resources by Categories and Cost Ranges................................29 • Availability of Resources................................................................................................30 • Other Known Resources..................................................................................................30 • Undiscovered Conventional Resources...........................................................................31 • Unconventional Resources and Other Materials.............................................................31 B. Uranium Exploration..................................................................................................................... 33 • Current Activities and Recent Developments.................................................................36 C. Uranium