a a a a a a a a a a a a OCCASIONALPAPERS a a a a a a a Preventing A ther India-Pakistan War: Enhancing Stability Along the Border a Shirin Tahir-Kheli a Director, South Asia Program a Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies a Washington, DC, USA a Kent L. Biringer a a a Albuquerque, NM, USA a a a a a PERATIVE MONITORING e e e a a a a SAND 98-0505/17 a Unlimited Release e October 2000 a a a e a a Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: a Enhancing Stability Along the Border a a a a Shirin Tahir-Kheli 0 Director, South Asia Program a The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies a a Washington, DC, USA a a Kent L. Biringer e South Asia Program Manager a Cooperative Monitoring Center a Sandia National Laboratories a Albuquerque, NM, USA a a a Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper a a a a Sandia National laboratories a Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin a Company, for the United States Department of a Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. a a e e a a a Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: a Enhancing Stability Along the Border a a a a 0 a a a a a a 0 0 0 a a a The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories assists political and a technical experts from around the world to acquire the technology-based tools they need to assess, a design, analyze, and implement nonproliferation, arms control, and other cooperative security measures. As part of its mission, the CMC sponsors research on cooperative security and the role of technology. a Reports of that work are provided through the Occasional Papers series. Research is conducted by a Sandia staff as well as visiting scholars. The CMC visiting scholars program is administered by the a Institute for Public Policy at the University of New Mexico. For additional information on the programs of the CMC, visit the CMC home page on the World Wide Web at <http://www.cmc.sandia.gov> or a write to: 0 Cooperative Monitoring Center a Sandia National Laboratories a P.O. Box 5800 a Albuquerque, NM 87185-1373 a For specific information on this report contact: 0 Kent L. Biringer at the above address. e This report was prepared by Sandia National Laboratories 0 Albuquerque, NM 87185 and Livermore, CA 94550 a a e a a a a a 4 a @I e Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: e Enhancing Stability Along the Border e e e e Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: e Enhancing Stability Along the Border e e e @ Abstract e e This occasional paper assesses the role of cooperative monitoring technology for enhanced border stability, the absence of which has been a leading cause for war in the subcontinent. An e assessment of the role of confidence building measures (CBMs) in India-Pakistan relations is e undertaken in order to demonstrate that these have been adopted even during past periods of poor 6 relations between the two countries. The authors examine specific parts of the common border e and offer an analysis of the types of monitoring technology useful in limiting problems. By using technical monitoring and inspections, each side can begin to replace suspicion and doubt with e knowledge and information useful in making informed political, military, and economic decisions while at the same time building confidence through common interactions. This paper e makes the case for future engagement between India and Pakistan as encouraged in the course of a President Clinton’s visit to India and Pakistan in March 2000. e e e e* e e 0 e e e e e e e e e e e 5 a Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: Enhancing Stability Along the Border Acronyms BJP Bharitya Janata Party CBM confidence building measure CENT0 Central Treaty Organization CMC Cooperative Monitoring Center CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty DGMO Director General of Military Operations FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty LAC Line of Actual Control LOC Line of Control NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SEAT0 Southeast Asia Treaty Organization UAV unmanned aerial vehicle UN United Nations UNGA United National General Assembly 6 a a Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: a Enhancing Stability Along the Border a Contents (b a EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 9 a INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 11 a BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................... 11 e BORDER VIOLATIONS AND WAR ........................................................................................ 15 a a THE COOPERATIVE MONITORING CONCEPT................................................................ 15 e COOPERATIVE MONITORING FOR INDWAKISTAN a BORDER APPLICATIONS........................................................................................................ 17 a CAN THERE BE CBMS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN? .......................................... 29 0 0 WAR PREVENTION: CREATING POLITICAL WILL ....................................................... 32 0 ABOUT THE AUTHORS ........................................................................................................... 37 a a Figures a FIGURE 1. BOUNDARY REGIONS ALONG THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER .......... 18 a FIGURE 2. SIACHEN GLACIER REGION COMPOSITE SATELLITE a IMAGE SHOWING CLAIMS LINES AND AREAS OF DISPUTE. ..................................... 19 e FIGURE 3. INTERNET PHOTO OF REGION SURROUNDING a AUSTRALIAN MAWSON STATION IN ANTARCTICA. .................................................... 20 e FIGURE 4. EXAMPLE OF OPEN SKIES AIRCRAFT USED FOR a COOPERATIVE MONITORING AGREEMENTS. ............................................................... 21 a FIGURE 5. EXAMPLE OF GROUND-BASED SENSORS USED TO IMPLEMENT a COOPERATIVE MONITORING AGREEMENTS. ............................................................... 23 a FIGURE 6. COMPOSITE SATELLITE IMAGE OF KASHMIR a SHOWING SIACHEN, THE LINE OF CONTROL (LOC), THE WORKING a BOUNDARY, AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ........................................................ 25 0 FIGURE 7. EXAMPLE OF A BUOY THAT COULD BE USED FOR a COOPERATIVE MONITORING EFFORTS. ......................................................................... 28 a 0 e a a a a 7 a a Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: a Enhancing Stability Along the Border a a 0 a a a e a a a a a a a a e a This page intentionally left blank. a a a 0 a a a e 0 a a a a a a a a a a a a 8 0 0 e e Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: e Enhancing Stability Along the Border e e Preventing Another India-Pakistan War: e Enhancing Stability Along the Border e e Executive Summary e The nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in 1998 changed the strategic context of relations e between these two countries. It made future war unthinkable and emphasized the need for new rules of engagement with greater emphasis on cooperation. These rules govern discussions e between the United States and India and Pakistan respectively, regarding “benchmarks” that e include strategic restraint and resumption of a dialogue between India and Pakistan. e Conflict between India and Pakistan is most often a result of border problems. Given the e additional nuclear element in any future conflict, the management of border issues becomes e urgent. This paper offers a path to management of relations through joint monitoring of borders. e The approach allows for joint application of monitoring technology to serve as a catalyst and to e accelerate the process of achieving political agreements. Monitoring also provides a means for e determining compliance with agreements as they are achieved. e Technology may also offer a measure of comfort where suspicion and doubt run high, as e is the situation in the subcontinent. Each border region between India and Pakistan is discussed, along with an examination of the type of technology that can be usefully applied. The border e regions include, from north to south, the Siachen Glacier area, the Line of Control and “working e boundary” in the Kashmir area, the International Border along the main body of the Indo-Pak e border, the Sir Creek area, and the maritime boundary, which extends into the Arabian Sea. e In the Siachen Glacier area, joint aerial monitoring missions may be possible for remote e areas. Declarations and notifications supplemented with periodic inspections of deployment e locations could reassure 60th countries that troops are not present. Radars mounted near critical peaks or passes could also detect ground or aerial activities in the region. The area has been e proposed as a location for a bilateral scientific research center, similar to the existing research e centers in Antarctica. e In the “working boundary’’ and the Line of Control area, the terrain is less rugged and e more suitable to deployment of ground-based monitoring systems. Building confidence along e this portion of the boundary could begin with discussions among military commanders. Portions 0 of existing fences built by India could be used for conducting joint experiments on instrumented e border monitoring. e On the international boundary, increased confidence between India and Pakistan could e result from the addition of monitoring provisions to the existing military exercise and airspace e agreements. Initial efforts could consist of advance notifications or