TURTLE ISLANDS WILDLIFE SANCTUARY CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Coastal and Marine Resources Management in the Coral Triangle–Southeast Asia TURTLE ISLANDS WILDLIFE SANCTUARY CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TURTLE ISLANDS WILDLIFE SANCTUARY CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Coastal and Marine Resources Management in the Coral Triangle–Southeast Asia This report was prepared by the Coastal and Marine Resources Management in the Coral Triangle–Southeast Asia (TA 7813-REG), a regional technical assistance funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Published in 2017. Printed in the Philippines. Suggested Citation: ADB. 2017. Turtle Islands Wildlife Sanctuary Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment. Consultant’s report. Manila (TA 7813-REG). The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars, unless otherwise stated. Chief Editor: Elvira C. Ablaza Technical Editor: Raul G. Roldan Copy Editor: Evelyn J. de la Cruz Author: Dr. Rosa T. Perez Production Manager: Dana Rose J. Salonoy Layout: Criselda C. Escalante Photo Credit Front Cover: Aman Santos/TA 7813-REG For more information, please contact: Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel: +63 2 632 4444; Fax: +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org ABOUT THE PROJECT The Global Environment Facility (GEF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB)–funded Regional Technical Assistance Coastal and Marine Resources Management in the Coral Triangle–Southeast Asia (TA ­-REG) operates in the Sulu-Sulawesi Marine Ecoregion, specifically in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (or the CT). The project works with communities and local leaders to help them better manage their resources, become better prepared to face climate change eects, and adopt environment-friendly and sustainable livelihood options. The project also aims to address natural resource degradation, poverty within coastal communities, and weakness in coastal and marine resources management policy implementation. The project has three main outputs: • Supporting CT governments in establishing an enabling environment for sustainable coastal and marine resources management; • Addressing constraints to sustainable fisheries management and economic development in the coastal zone, such as illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, overfishing, and natural habitat destruction, among others; and • Establishing a project management system to ensure eective project implementation. ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank ALOS Advanced Land Observing Satellite ARMM Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao BI Bureau of Immigration CDP Comprehensive Development Plan CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources GCM Global climate model GHG Greenhouse gas GIS Geographic information system IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency LGU local government unit MetMalaysia Malaysian Meteorological Department MGB Mines and Geosciences Bureau NAHRIM National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia NIPAS National Integrated Protected Areas System NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OPASu Oce of the Protected Area Superintendent PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration PAR Philippine area of responsibility PEIS PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale PhilGIS Philippine GIS Data Clearing house PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PN Philippine Navy PSA Philippine Statistics Authority RCP Representative Concentration Pathway REDAS Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System RegCM Regional Climate Model RETA Regional Technical Assistance SLR sea level rise SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SST sea surface temperature TIWS Turtle Islands Wildlife Sanctuary WMO World Meteorological Organization CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES IX LIST OF FIGURES X I. INTRODUCTION A. Background ­ B. The CRVA Report ­ II. REVIEW OF CONCEPTS A. Island Vulnerability § B. Climate Change Risks § III. THE TURTLE ISLANDS WILDLIFE SANCTUARY A. The Turtle Islands B. The Turtle Islands Wildlife Sanctuary C. Geographic Location ¨ D. Baseline Profile ¨ 1. Physiographic Features ¨ 2. Hydrological Features ¨ 3. Geological Features ¨ 4. Land Cover and Land Use © IV. TIWS SOCIOECONOMIC SURVEY A. Characterization of Respondents B. Socioeconomic Features ­ª 1. Number of Communities/Barangays and Population ­ª 2. Sources of Livelihood ­ª 3. Tourism and Recreation ­ª C. Threats and Vulnerabilities ­ª D. Summary of Respondents’ Perceptions on the Current Situation ­­ 1. Physical Conditions ­­ 2. Target Habitats and Resources: Conditions, Trends, Threats, and Recommended ­§ Solutions a. Marine Resources and Habitats ­§ b. Terrestrial Resources ­¨ 3. Target Socioeconomic Resources ­© 4. Communities’ Adaptive/Coping Capacity ­© V. HAZARD AND RISK MAPPING A. Methods and Limitations ­ 1. Climate Projections ­ 2. Floods and Landslides ­ 3. Earthquake-Related Hazards ­ 4. Sea Level Rise ­« B. Climate Change and Natural Hazard Characterization ­« 1. Climate Projections in Tawi-Tawi ­« 2. Climate Projections in East Sabah Region §§ 3. Climate Change Projections Using a Regional Climate Model §§ 4. Floods and Landslides 29 5. Earthquake-Related Hazards 29 6. Sea Level Rise 29 VI. HAZARD SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT 30 A. Flood Hazard 30 B. Landslide Hazard 37 C. Earthquake-Related Hazard 44 VII. HAZARD EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT 46 A. Population Exposure to Flood Hazard 46 B. Population Exposure to Landslide Hazard 53 C. Population Exposure to Sea Level Rise 60 1. Sea Level Rise of 1.0 m 67 2. Sea Level Rise of 2.0 m 73 3. Sea Level Rise of 4.0 m 79 4. Sea Level Rise of 6.0 m 85 VIII. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 85 A. Vulnerabilities and Capacities 86 B. Adaptation 87 REFERENCES LIST OF TABLES No. Title Page ­ Types of Land Cover in the islands of the Turtle Islands, Tawi-Tawi 6 § Population of Two Barangays ­ª Standardized Landslide Susceptibility Parameters Set by MGB ­ Standardized Flood Susceptibility Parameters Set by MGB ­« ¨ Projected Maximum Temperature Increase (°C) Under Medium-range ­« Emission Scenario in §ª­­¯§ªª Based on ­«­¯§ªªª Historical Values © Projected Maximum Temperature Increase (°C) Under High-range §ª Emission Scenario in §ª­­¯§ªª Based on ­«­¯§ªªª Historical Values Projected Minimum Temperature Increase (°C) Under Medium-range §ª Emission Scenario in §ª­­¯§ªª Based on ­«­¯§ªªª Historical Values Projected Minimum Temperature Increase (°C) Under High-range Emission §ª Scenario in §ª­­¯§ªª Based on ­«­¯§ªªª Historical Values « Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall (%) Under Medium-range Emission §­ Scenario in §ª­­¯§ªª Based on ­«­¯§ªªª Historical Values ­ª Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall (%) Underhigh-range Emission §­ Scenario in §ª­­¯§ªª Based on ­«­¯§ªªª Historical Values ­­ Projected Annual Mean Temperature Increase (°C) Under Medium-range §§ Emission Scenario Relative to ­««ª¯­««« Period ­§ Projected Annual Rainfall Changes (%) Under Medium-range §§ Emission Scenario Relative to the ­««ª¯­««« Period ­ Area of the Islands Exposed to Flood at Various Susceptibility Levels ª ­ Area of the Islands Exposed to Landslide at Various Susceptibility Levels ­¨ Population of the Islands Exposed to Flood at Various Susceptibility Levels © ­© Population of the Islands Exposed to Landslide at Various Susceptibility Levels ¨ ­ Area of the Islands Exposed to Sea level Rise at Various Depths ©ª ­ Population of the Islands Exposed to Sea Level Rise at Various Depths ©ª IX LIST OF FIGURES No. Title Page ­ The Turtle Islands, Tawi-Tawi Province § Total No. of Respondents per Island ± Ages of Male & Female Respondents in ¨ Islands Respondents’ Position in the Family in ¨ Islands ¨ Number of Years Living in the Islands « © Types of House of Respondents in Five Islands « Historical Average Annual Temperature in the Turtle Islands and Vicinity, ­«­¯§ªªª § Projected Average Annual Temperature in the Turtle Islands and Vicinity, §ª­­¯§ªª § « Projected Average Annual Temperature in the Turtle Islands and Vicinity, §ª©¯§ª©¨ §¨ ­ª Historical Average Annual Temperature in the Turtle Islands and Vicinity, ­«­¯§ªªª §© ­­ Projected Average Annual Temperature in the Turtle Islands and Vicinity, §ª­­¯§ªª § ­§ Projected Average Annual Rainfall in the Turtle Islands and Vicinity, §ª©¯§ª©¨ § ­ Flood Hazard Susceptibility Map of Baguan ­ ­ Flood Hazard Susceptibility Map of Boan § ­¨ Flood Hazard Susceptibility Map of Great Bakkungan ­© Flood Hazard Susceptibility Map of Langaan ­ Flood Hazard Susceptibility Map of Lihiman ¨ ­ Flood Hazard Susceptibility Map of Taganak © ­« Landslide Hazard Susceptibility Map of Baguan §ª Landslide Hazard Susceptibility Map of Boan « §­ Landslide Hazard Susceptibility Map of Great Bakkungan ª §§ Landslide Hazard Susceptibility Map of Langaan ­ § Landslide Hazard Susceptibility Map of Lihiman § § Landslide Hazard