JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS Volume 17 Number 1 June 2018 remember to change running heads VOLUME 17 NO 1 i Journal of African Elections EDITOR Denis Kadima ARTICLES BY Zefanias Matsimbe Nelson Domingos John Rabuogi Ahere Moses Nderitu Nginya Adriano Nuvunga Joseph Hanlon Emeka C. Iloh Michael E. Nwokedi Cornelius C. Mba Kingsley O. Ilo Atanda Abdulwaheed Isiaq Oluwashina Moruf Adebiyi Adebola Rafiu Bakare Joseph Olusegun Adebayo Nicodemus Minde Sterling Roop Kjetil Tronvoll Volume 17 Number 1 June 2018 i ii JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS Published by EISA 14 Park Road, Richmond, Johannesburg, South Africa P O Box 740, Auckland Park, 2006, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 11 381 6000 Fax: +27 (0) 11 482 6163 e-mail: [email protected] © EISA 2018 ISSN: 1609-4700 (Print) ISSN 2415-5837 (Online) v. 17 no. 1: 10.20940/jae/2018/v17i1 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher Printed by: Corpnet, Johannesburg Cover photograph: Reproduced with the permission of the HAMILL GALLERY OF AFRICAN ART, BOSTON, MA, USA For electronic back copies of JAE visit www.eisa jae.org.za remember to change running heads VOLUME 17 NO 1 iii EDITOR Denis Kadima, EISA, Johannesburg MANAGING EDITOR Heather Acott EDITORIAL BOARD Chair: Denis Kadima, EISA, South Africa Cherrel Africa, Department of Political Studies, University of the Western Cape, South Africa Jørgen Elklit, Department of Political Science, University of Aarhus, Denmark Amanda Gouws, Department of Political Science, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa Roukaya Kasenally, Department of Social Studies, University of Mauritius, Mauritius Abdul Rahman Lamin, UNESCO Regional Office for Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya Tom Lodge, Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Limerick, Ireland Khabele Matlosa, Political Affairs Department, African Union Commission Roger Southall, Department of Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa and Research Associate in Political Studies, University of Cape Town. The Journal of African Elections is an interdisciplinary biannual publication of research and writing in the human sciences, which seeks to promote a scholarly understanding of developments and change in Africa. Responsibility for opinions expressed and for the accuracy of facts published in papers, research notes, review articles and book reviews rests solely with the individual authors or reviewers. Contributions are referred to specialist readers for consideration, but the Editor is responsible for the final selection of the contents of the Journal. Editorial correspondence, including manuscripts for submission and books for review, should be sent to: The Managing Editor, Journal of African Elections EISA: P O Box 740 Auckland Park 2006, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 11 381 6000 | Fax: +27 (0) 11 482 6163 | e-mail: [email protected] Business correspondence, including orders and remittances, subscription queries, advertise- ments, back numbers and offprints, should be addressed to the publisher: The Publications Department, Journal of African Elections EISA: P O Box 740 Auckland Park 2006 South Africa Tel: 27 (0) 11 381 6000 | Fax: +27 (0) 11 482 6163 | e-mail: [email protected] Abstracts for previous issues are available at: https://eisa.org.za/index.php/journal-of-african-elections-contents-listing/ iv JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS CONTENTS Obituary: Mr MUKENDI Tshimanga Rossy .......................................................... v Angola’s 2017 Elections and the start of a Post-Dos Santos Era Zefanias Matsimbe and Nelson Domingos .................................................................. 1 When a Compatriot becomes a Foe: Political Parties and Violent Elections in Kenya and South Africa John Rabuogi Ahere ................................................................................................... 25 International Election Observers in Kenya’s 2017 Elections: Impartial or Partisan? Moses Nderitu Nginya .............................................................................................. 49 Local Media Observation of Mozambique’s Elections Adriano Nuvunga and Joseph Hanlon ...................................................................... 72 Voting Rights of Internally Displaced Persons in Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections Emeka C. Iloh, Michael E. Nwokedi, Cornelius C. Mba and Kingsley O. Ilo ..................................................................................................... 93 Ethnicity and Election Outcomes in Nigeria: Interrogating the 2015 Presidential Election Atanda Abdulwaheed Isiaq, Oluwashina Moruf Adebiyi and Adebola Rafiu Bakare ................................................................................................ 117 Gerontocracy in African Politics: Youth and the Quest for Political Participation Joseph Olusegun Adebayo ....................................................................................... 140 The Rise and Fall of the Government of National Unity in Zanzibar: A Critical Analysis of the 2015 elections Nicodemus Minde, Sterling Roop and Kjetil Tronvoll ............................................ 162 remember to change running heads VOLUME 17 NO 1 v OBITUARY MUKENDI TSHIMANGA ROSSY The Editorial Board of the Journal of African Elections notes with deep regret the passing away of Mr MUKENDI Tshimanga Rossy. Mr MUKENDI was an assistant in the Department of International Relations at the Université Pédagogique Nationale (UPN) in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, and had previously taught at the Department of International Relations at the University Reverend Kim in Kinshasa, DRC. He was also an analyst at the Pan African Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IPRIS) and has written several articles with the late Professor Philippe Biyoya MAKUTU. Mr MUKENDI contributed an article entitled ‘Alliances et coalitions de partis politiques en République Démocratique du Congo: Causes et Conséquences’ to a special edition of the Journal of African Elections (Volume 13 No. 1, 1 June 2014). In addition, in 2015 he authored his first book titled The rebirth of the DRC in the post-bloc geopolitical context, which was published by Editions Universitaires Européennes. Mr MUKENDI was also a human rights activist and an influential leader of the Kinshasa-based citizen movement known as ‘Collectif 2016’, a pro-democracy youth movement which bravely advocated strict adherence to the two-term constitutional limit for presidents. Mr MUKENDI sadly lost his life on 25 February 2018. He was killed when the police opened fire on peaceful citizens who were demonstrating against President Kabila’s apparent attempts to overstay in power beyond his second and last term, at the Saint-Benoit Catholic Church in Kinshasa. Our condolences go to his family, friends and colleagues. vi JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS VOLUME 17 NO 1 DOI: 10.20940/JAE/2018/v17i1aDOI: 10.20940/JAE/2018/v17i1a1 1 1 ANGOLA’S 2017 ELECTIONS AND THE START OF A POST-DOS SANTOS ERA Zefanias Matsimbe and Nelson Domingos Zefanias Matsimbe is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique and elections consultant in the EISA Mozambique Office Nelson Domingos António is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science, University Agostinho Neto, Luanda, Angola and a member of the Angolan Association of Political Science (AACP) ABSTRACT For the first time in the history of its multiparty democracy, Angola held general elections in August 2017 without President José Eduardo dos Santos on the ballot paper. In 2016 dos Santos decided not to run again for the presidency but he remained the party chair. Instead, João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço was nominated to replace dos Santos as the MPLA candidate. The departure of dos Santos raised expectations that there would be political change in the country. However, this did not happen because the MPLA won a qualified majority in the National Assembly despite their decreased support compared to the results of the 2012 general elections. Though the 2017 elections were considered to have been well prepared and executed, the outcome was challenged by the opposition on the grounds of irregularities in voter registration, the accreditation of party agents, and problems in both counting and announcing the results. The change of leader raised a number of questions regarding the implications of a double centre of power in the MPLA and presidency. How João Lourenço will manage the question of the factions created by his rise to power is a matter of concern, together with whether he will be able to end the hegemony and economic power of dos Santos and his allies. He will also have to deal with the ongoing economic crisis and boost declining public trust in the MPLA. By addressing some of these issues this article provides an important contribution to understanding the electoral processes in Angola. Keywords: Angola, MPLA, UNITA, José Eduardo dos Santos, elections, João Lourenço 1 2 DOI: 10.20940/JAE/2018/v17i1a1 JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS INTRODUCTION Angola’s long civil war ended in 2002. Fifteen years later, on 23 August 2017, they held their third general elections to elect the president, vice-president and 220 members of the National Assembly, as determined by the revised 2010 Constitution. The elections